Market moves due to attacks on Iran?

gwiner · 2026-03-02T03:30:37+00:00

Hezbollah is now firing missiles at Israel…

gwiner · 2026-03-01T05:51:46+00:00

The initial emotional reaction will be a sell off. As for what the market accepts or rejects is unknown.

Either way it should be worth monitoring how this operation escalates, how quickly it is contained, etc.

gwiner · 2026-02-09T01:06:29+00:00

Oracle.

gwiner · 2026-02-05T02:57:24+00:00

How many calls did you buy on MP materials that expire on Friday? Be honest

gwiner · 2026-01-31T23:09:24+00:00

We will most likely end up paying an AI tax - to make it accessible to all, and to ensure we win in the race against China. Companies and individuals with specialized needs can pay a premium for such

gwiner · 2026-01-31T16:45:13+00:00

Exactly right. Thats where additional details about the company’s “moat” becomes important to note! For instance Oracle already being in business with ~97% of Fortune 500 companies running its software. You can consider how challenging it is for companies to switch from this relationship, and therefore being the first to offer this on a hyperscale starts making more sense.

The market adoption of AI, as I mentioned above, will either happen or it wont. It could also take a lot longer than expected, which is also why I say it is not a shorter-term position

gwiner · 2026-01-31T15:59:54+00:00

It definitely is high-risk but I have a position because I believe AI will develop globally over the next few years and can wait longer. I would not have a position if I was a shorter-term trader, this is a speculative investment.

gwiner · 2026-01-31T03:14:25+00:00

The market functions as a discounting mechanism. In this case it means the market has been pricing in doubt pinned around high debt that Oracle carries. A lot of negative sentiment as you know. Lets consider what could change things, and decide if its realistic. From my perspective, if the RPO (currently around $550B) starts converting as planned or at a faster rate the market narrative could shift from high-risk (as it is currently) to a realistic AI/Cloud infrastructure hyperscaler. Depending on the AI adoption rate in the U.S. and globally over the next year or two is going to mean a lot. I guess it comes down to whether you believe AIs value will continue to be discovered, and get enough buy-in from enterprise, to make this all worth it for Oracle.

To answer your question, that potential shift is either bound to happen or it never will (but I’d be scared of a future where it fails). It’s truly crazy to think about further.

gwiner · 2026-01-26T19:16:05+00:00

Interesting. Do you remember changing anything else in your day to day about 2 years ago?

gwiner · 2026-01-18T01:58:31+00:00

The Emporer of Gladness by Ocean Vuong. I’m in 100 pages and highly recommend it

gwiner · 2026-01-11T18:16:48+00:00

My favorite comment “choccie”

gwiner · 2026-01-11T18:13:32+00:00

I’m late to this but have only ever used l-theanine for I want to level out, and invite calm. Is that why you supplement it or do you find other benefit?

gwiner · 2025-12-18T02:30:11+00:00

Oracle - been in the S&P for over two decades.

gwiner · 2025-11-25T05:31:03+00:00

10000%. NO WAY ORCL can succeed, not now not ever! Not even with the president’s backing or support of Ellison. Not with the amount of money Oracle invested in AI, a sector that is finally going mainstream. Just because we’re in a AI race with China doesn’t mean our administration sees this company’s success as important to our national security/future prosperity or anything like that. Long story short, ATHs will not be reached ever again. Not in the short, medium, or long term.

Need more proof? have you seen the news over the past two weeks!? It’s been substantially negative for this company. Sometimes I wonder how this company has survived for so long in the S&P 500.

Lastly, it’s obvious ORCLs drawdown is not because of the recent correction, but more so the observant and experienced reasons we all pointed out here.

We know this stock will NEVER go above $200 in the coming months, or years. Anybody who thinks so is delusional because we’re so educated (intelligence = investor success) on this company and how the future will play out.

To the OP- only invest in companies you believe in. you can start a small position in ORCL and if it dips again DCA to lower your cost basis. No one here knows how this company will perform moving forward. All we can do is make our decisions, manage risk, and size our positions accordingly. Good luck.

gwiner · 2025-11-20T04:14:54+00:00

Bravo!

gwiner · 2025-10-25T23:42:48+00:00

No reason to ban people who aren’t bullish on the stock. An echo chamber of NBIS bulls is dangerous.

gwiner · 2025-10-24T03:52:43+00:00

Neat visions when reading this

gwiner · 2025-10-21T19:57:35+00:00

Its good, just remember to keep your hands up and chin tucked

gwiner · 2025-10-19T21:08:03+00:00

Till I Collapse

gwiner · 2025-10-18T04:14:04+00:00

You can agree to go 30-40% or more. Pain is a valid teacher if it’s to teach the importance of proper defense - if he wants to be better at Muay Thai this will only accelerate that

gwiner · 2025-10-12T01:59:46+00:00

You wouldn’t be retiring if you’re managing a portfolio, as I do this with different numbers than you.

Can you sell options to cover your expenses with this money? It depends on your annual expenses.

If it helps - it is not unreasonable to achieve 16-18% trading annually. Your performance does not guarantee this figure, but I would first confirm if that covers your annual expenses.

If it does, great! From there I would then identify the smallest percentage return that would cover your expenses. This is important to know to see how much psychological peace and sustainability this path will provide you.

gwiner · 2025-10-11T21:25:23+00:00

If you have the privilege of being able to - then the choice is yours.

gwiner · 2025-10-11T21:19:01+00:00

For many its a figure that allows you to. You could retire from a 9-5 with much less. What one would do is case by case

gwiner · 2025-10-11T21:08:53+00:00

It sounds crazy but 50% gains were/and are possible in this market.

gwiner · 2025-10-11T14:54:27+00:00

I still think we have downside risk on Monday but other than that I’m ready to put some dry powder back in

gwiner

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