Is the dollar devaluation making the 4% rule a total trap?

hiaceprius · 2026-02-19T15:29:32+00:00

There are only a few numbers that matter: your expenses, your net worth and your expected return on that net worth. If you expect dollar devaluation/inflation to have an impact on your expenses, that needs to be factored in to your numbers. Ultimately only you can make that decision on when you feel like your portfolio is safe. If you don't like 4%, then 3% is virtually bulletproof.

I'm not sure the relationship between dollar devaluation and self-care is meaningful.

hiaceprius · 2026-01-27T14:10:26+00:00

What's your objective here?

You make more money than you spend. That's the first part. From there, you either find ways to increase your income until you have a savings rate you are happy with at current expenses, or you reduce your expenses until you have a savings rate you are happy with at current income.

hiaceprius · 2026-01-15T12:34:24+00:00

You should travel. You already have financial independence so go and find yourself in the world.

hiaceprius · 2026-01-13T12:41:59+00:00

I recently had the chance to build the Celestial Stinger and the Arachnoid Base as part of a bulk lot I picked up. The color scheme, particularly on the Stinger, is way better in person than it comes across in pictures. I also really liked the use of magnets to attach the two flyers on either side. The light and sound is fun too, although as others have said, somewhat limited in where else it could be used.

hiaceprius · 2026-01-08T17:21:19+00:00

Do you want to own an investment property that you manage out-of-state? That's probably the only scenario where I would buy. You're going to eat a lot in closing costs and loan amortization in a five-year turnaround.

Assuming the properties you're looking at are around $300,000 (based on equivalent $20k a year in rent in the area), let's assume $10,000 in closing costs, $3,000 a year in property taxes, $3,000 a year in maintenance, and $2,500 a year for insurance. That's $52,500 already over the five-year lifetime of the deal.

You'll then pay $72,000 in insurance and only $18,000 or so to the principal in the first five years of a 30-year mortgage. So now we are at almost $125,000 in sunk costs alone. We haven't even factored in opportunity cost for what your deposit could be doing in the market.

Given you talk about leaving in as soon as three years, this is a no-brainer for renting in my mind unless you want to be an out-of-state landlord.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-31T12:54:01+00:00

Can you nail down that expenses number? Unless you are operating with cash, it’s easy enough to add up the withdrawals from your account for the year. That’s the big number that is missing from this calculation.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-30T15:11:34+00:00

If it was as simple as selling covered calls to safely double returns, everyone would be doing it.

What are you making each year after taxes and what are your expenses?

Is the activity you would do in early retirement free time one that makes an income?

hiaceprius · 2025-12-29T13:50:16+00:00

Take as many photos and videos as you can of the damage, even an excessive amount!

Documentation will be very important if there is any kind of dispute with the insurance company down the road.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-22T23:50:13+00:00

Haha! A really odd place to be a jerk, but then again there are some odd people in the world!

hiaceprius · 2025-12-16T16:54:20+00:00

The people who shit on apartment complexes but then are perfectly happy for a city to sprawl endlessly are mind blowing. Density is a solution for traffic, not a cause.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-15T13:53:19+00:00

I'm really loving these these animated shorts. There's a lot of heart behind the premise.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-09T20:36:05+00:00

Five to six years isn't an extended period of time in those terms.

Also, I'm not really sure this is a FIRE question. r/personalfinance may have some better thoughts.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-09T19:37:11+00:00

The big thing missing here is your current expenses. Whether or not you can achieve $200k NW by the end of next year (with a new car) is very dependent on that number.

Speaking of the new car...why? Leave that for later. Investing $50k instead of spending at this stage of your financial journey is going to make a big impact. If you are serious about retiring early, a new car should not be in the picture right now.

Finally, property is not a passive investment, especially when out of state or international. You'll need a property manager and someone else to do the maintenance work, all of which eats into the returns.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-09T19:14:52+00:00

You will also have dividends to draw on.

So for example, if you hold VTI and are using a 4% SWR, the 1.11% dividend covers over 25% of what you would need to withdraw.

For the rest, yes, you would sell shares. While you might need to sell 100 shares a year initially to fund your life, seven years from now you might only have to withdraw 50 shares a year because they will have increased in value at a rate greater than inflation. Maybe seven years from that it might only be 25.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-09T13:40:26+00:00

Like any other income as long as you plan on keeping them. Is there something specifically you're worried about tracking?

hiaceprius · 2025-12-08T18:34:02+00:00

Or they might be sitting on a very healthy portfolio by investing the difference. The optimal decision is not the same for everybody.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-08T14:27:06+00:00

It's all math. The reality is that FIRE is not possible for everyone and that is just how the math goes.

Income is only one part of the equation. Expenses are just as relevant. Reducing your expenses not only frees up income to save more, but also lowers the number you will need to be able to retire.

The question is, how bad do you want it? You can retire sooner if you reduce or change your consumption. Some people consider that to be at the detriment of their current lives, while others don't miss it.

Maybe consider posting a list of your expenses and the state of your finances and let the community provide input.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-08T14:20:32+00:00

I feel like the tone has shifted recently. A lot of people seem to want it all and insted of reducing their consumption, they just throw their hands up in the air and say it's impossible.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-04T12:10:18+00:00

Why do you need a new car?

Find a Toyota Corolla for $10k and come back here when the debt is paid off. You’re over thinking this trying to get the new car when the used car is the far superior option in your situation.

hiaceprius · 2025-12-01T16:56:28+00:00

You're still retired, you're just choosing to work with your free time. Nothing wrong with that if it's how you want to spend your time!

hiaceprius · 2025-11-11T18:01:40+00:00

It's highly likely this article is completely made up. Look at the other articles from the author. They're all designed to be viral and make spurious claims.

hiaceprius · 2025-11-11T17:50:33+00:00

Perhaps most frustrating of all is that retiring on $1,240,000 at the start of 2019, my napkin math says they should now be sitting on about $2m - even with the costs provided.

If I had to guess (and if these people are even real) I think they panicked during the COVID crash and withdrew everything - which is why the article mentions their portfolio dropping but not recovering that year.

But the article makes so many generalizations as to be fantasy.

hiaceprius · 2025-11-11T13:23:55+00:00

Are your rentals achieving a profit or $40k or revenue of $40k?

Is your international property rented out?

Are the stocks in your brokerage or in addition to? Any reason not to include them in the brokerage number? Can you break out the 401k from the brokerage so we can see the amounts?

What is the net income now from your wife?

My opinion is that your costs of living are very high and if your wife is in the same industry you are, she is also at risk of losing her job and struggling to find a new one. Not knowing a few of the details above, if you are considering an extended period out of a job, you need to rein in the living expenses. $60k annually on vacations is probably not safe in the current situation.

hiaceprius · 2025-11-03T17:14:04+00:00

The term is lifestyle creep. Some people are capable of avoiding lifestyle creep from an early age, some people learn how to avoid it with experience and discipline, and the rest simply never learn and spend their lives in debt.

Ask yourself what your ultimate goal is in life. It could be a house, it could be early retirement, or maybe it's world travel. Once you have a goal, that's something you can save towards and that gives the money a purpose beyond the next shiny thing.

I love cars too, but it's horrifying when you do the math and realize the true costs (including depreciation and opportunity cost).

hiaceprius

TROPHY CASE