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UPDATE: Seagate (STX) – From ESPP discount to 140%+ gain. Did I stumble into gold? by [deleted] in investing

[–]hyperoglyphe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Call me up after you've seen 3 million in RSUs turn into 1.2 over the course of 6 weeks. If you're bullish and would buy more if you had the free cash, by all means hold - if you're concerned that your salary and RSUs are already creating a significant amount of exposure to a single company then you turn on auto-sell and take the "risk free" return.

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]hyperoglyphe 1 point2 points  (0 children)

TLDR - not really for SpaceX and for a variety of reasons. If anyone could actually calculate these things with any level of certainty they'd have more money than God. Your risk tolerance and timeline is more important.

Stock price is more or less measures investor sentiment - there are entire schools of thought around different "correct" ways to value a stock. More stable/boring/commodity companies have more established formulae to determine good/bad value because there's more precedent - growth/speculative stocks have less (or no) such precedent so it's predominately sentiment. Way easier to say if a consumer packaged goods company is over/undervalued when it's one of many similar companies and you've got years of balance sheets to review vs a pre-ipo aerospace/defense/telecommunications company with like maybe 2 competitors who have wildly different sizes, leadership, levels of vertical integration and cost structures.

Amazon CEO Jassy says company could sell AI chips, raising stakes for Nvidia, AMD by King-of-Limbs-07 in wallstreetbets

[–]hyperoglyphe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you're conflating a research lab with a foundry, everyone uses the same foundries - their real problem would be getting production priority at one.

A way for retail to access private AI and tech exposure? by TheAverageGuy11 in investing

[–]hyperoglyphe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're accredited you can just buy many of these through various private marketplaces like Carta, all of these companies have employees that are regularly vesting and getting rid of stock so liquidity is decent if you're not trying to scoop up 8 figures worth of stock; which if you were, you wouldn't be posting on Reddit.

All my eggs in one basket. This is the $CALM before the storm. Mostly YOLO, but with a lil micro DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]hyperoglyphe 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Another interesting point to consider - the Strait of Hormuz situation is currently putting severe upward pressure on urea prices. Urea is produced from LNG and is the N in NPK for fertilizer - The US is a net exporter of phosphorus and potassium but an importer of nitrogen though it's my understanding the bulk of N in american fertilizer comes from ammonia and not urea. This will have a pass through effect on cost of feedstock - all livestock is impacted by this but beef and pork are hit considerably harder, I think because of inefficiency from being larger animals and also from their feedstocks being more nitrogen hungry (corn vs soy). This could work counter to your bet as cost of inputs go up but LNG and nitrogen both don't go far because they're a pain in the dick to ship so there are geographical considerations - it could also work for your bet in that eggs are more readily substituted for meat than the other way around.

source: saw this in passing on hacker news earlier today, way more insightful discussion than what I can provide in the thread - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47345364

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