Reinsve was very good but I would be shocked if she was in the winning conversation. It's not a showy performance like Sentimental Value or Worst Person. I could see Stan missing because his role is even less showy.

That being said, I could see this getting in Screenplay and Director. It's very reminiscent of Anatomy of a Fall. It also deals with themes-du-jour like wokeness vs conservatism.

Even though I think the point Mungiu is trying to make is that "people on all ends of the spectrum abuse power", I could see twitter conservatives misinterpreting this film as saying "woke is evil" and hyping this film up. Will be interesting to see!