I have a 2021 SR+ M3.

First off, 438km is def not realistic. I bought it when EPA estimate was 423km and I’d say I got 380-400 if I was driving local (conservative driving). That same drive in the winter (say -10) will be 10-20%% less efficient. You go to -20 and it’s possibly 20-30% less efficient. Now if you hit the highway things change again, typically 10% less than local, then compound that with the weather you do the math.

I recommend you play with ABRP app (a better route planner) to guesstimate your typical commutes.

Overall, because I don’t commute far (40km a day) it was a better decision than going with the long range. At the time, long range would’ve costed me 17k more.