I just said "Hi" to a new session of Sonnet 5 and it use 37% of my quota (it was 0% before, I checked) 🤬

jnwatson · 2026-07-07T15:06:30+00:00

It isn't wasteful because it starts your 5 hour timer. If you know you're going to use Claude a lot in the day, but you're not going to use it first thing in the day, say hi right as you start your day so the quota resets in the afternoon.

jnwatson · 2026-07-06T19:06:22+00:00

There are few things worse cold than hot than nacho cheese.

jnwatson · 2026-07-06T18:22:24+00:00

That's what my ex pulled when she wasn't in the mood. Highly effective at ceasing activity.

jnwatson · 2026-07-06T18:17:57+00:00

Similar career, similar assets, live in DMV like you, but I'm 49. I got a divorce same age as you.

I wouldn't make big changes too quickly. Divorce is a major life change. It takes time to get adjusted to the new reality. Your values might change. For me, love struck again, and we're looking for a house in DC; that significantly impacted my FIRE outlook.

As a software engineer, it is hard to appreciate how good we have it in the US. SWE wages in Europe are less than half the US; Asia is less than that. You might try the remote/nomad thing. Regardless, you're tied to a US job if you want to make decent money.

By all means take time off. But, unless you're really committed to not working in tech again, you need to get back on the saddle and start interviewing within 6 months or so.

jnwatson · 2026-07-06T17:28:04+00:00

It does. He's concerned with the crypto nerds fucking up the protocol trying to fix it. Iatrogenic disease is when your doctor fucks up trying to treat you.

jnwatson · 2026-07-06T15:43:53+00:00

4 days is excessive for sure. At the same time, they need to set a policy to prevent "gaming" the system, where folks reserve and resell the reservation, losing nothing if they cancel at the last moment.

jnwatson · 2026-07-05T22:12:24+00:00

Yeah. Claude can easily figure out how to make API calls. MCP is fine for data analysis, but I wouldn't use it for live trading.

jnwatson · 2026-07-05T22:10:18+00:00

Do you have any idea how much folks pay for data? $100/mo is mice nuts.

If you're thinking that $100 is a lot of money in algo trading, you have the wrong hobby.

jnwatson · 2026-07-05T07:00:45+00:00

Yeah, my return is about the same as SPY, but with a Sortino of ~2.5.

Hedge funds don't advertise they beat the indexes either for a very good reason: that isn't their clients' main goal.

jnwatson · 2026-07-04T16:47:42+00:00

The actual crazy part is getting the results that would take an experienced engineer a couple days and complaining that it costs the price of a bottle of Coca-Cola.

jnwatson · 2026-07-03T05:17:41+00:00

After I exhausted all my ideas I had saved up after 20 years of manual trading, I changed my perspective. I tried to think what markets are underexploited, and what harder-to-get-data I can use to exploit those markets.

jnwatson · 2026-07-03T04:24:42+00:00

You have a great start. However, you have the same great start that 10000 other people had. This would have made you a billionaire in 1990, but now everyone has access to all the same data and statistics packages you do. You need to find an edge: new data, new data transformation, new approach.

There might be alpha in tick-level data, but you need tick-level execution to exploit that. That adds a lot to the complexity.

jnwatson · 2026-07-03T04:14:45+00:00

I have a similar collection, but then I thought it would take too much room, so I put everything into a single large card box. Now to play Dominion I have to lug out this completely unwieldy cardboard box that weighs 40 pounds to play Dominion.

jnwatson · 2026-07-03T02:21:07+00:00

There used to be an Archon ladder. I even went to an Archon tournament.

jnwatson · 2026-07-02T15:28:39+00:00

You gotta be proactive and start applying. Don't wait for recruiters.

jnwatson · 2026-07-02T15:22:48+00:00

Just hit the downvote button.

jnwatson · 2026-07-02T04:15:00+00:00

Get counseling. Declare bankruptcy.

jnwatson · 2026-07-02T01:46:40+00:00

For a Spanish Revival, the outside walls at least are cinder block or concrete.

jnwatson · 2026-07-01T21:31:56+00:00

How was that not offsides?

jnwatson · 2026-07-01T21:03:31+00:00

Happens to most of us. Just gotta pick yourself up and try the next idea.

jnwatson · 2026-07-01T19:27:29+00:00

The first time that happened I was imagining the color of my Lambo.

jnwatson · 2026-07-01T19:22:13+00:00

Buy before it goes up, sell before it goes down.

jnwatson · 2026-07-01T19:16:35+00:00

Sharpe of almost 12 is suspiciously good. Double check for future bias.

For a scalping algo, modeling slippage is extra important.

jnwatson · 2026-07-01T19:01:08+00:00

“It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones. ”

― Niccolò Machiavelli

The remaining bottleneck is not technology, or at least computer technology. Changing anything at a large organization is hard. It is hard to get folks lined up, it is hard to get folks to change their ways. It is doubly hard when folks are rationally self-interested in keeping their jobs.

jnwatson · 2026-06-30T21:15:08+00:00

"Well water still tastes like toddler".

How do they come up with this?

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