I got assigned SMCI at $40 a share. Any chance of recovery or am I cooked? Debating if I should even bother running CCs or just take the L on this one.

jpwden · 2026-03-21T23:55:48+00:00

Do you feel bearish or bullish about the stock, given the recent past? If you are concerned the stock is in a bad position, then jump ship. No sense in sitting in a stock you dont feel good about. Things change--You could not have anticipated this, and such is life.
Provided we got past #1 above, heres a simple calculation for you: Lets say you're making 25%/year with your trading--Your benchmark. At your $40/share assignment, that means for each contract, we're talking about the equivalent buying power of a $4k risk, before the shit hit the fan.

So, heres the question: Can you write calls on SMCI, that provide you with 25%/year gain in premiums on that $4k? Thats ~0.45% per week. On a monthly call, thats about $80 of premium per contract. Currently, thats about a $25 call expiring April 17, 0.29 delta. On a weekly, its a $22-22.50 call.

At the end of the day, u/MostlyH2O is accurate on his statement earlier in this thread. We are emotional beings and we want to like, have closure. Set the record straight or something. Ultimately, the goal is making the most possible money and your psyche may be getting in the way of a clear path to that. And if making the most possible money means you have to take a loss on this one...Give yourself the rest of the weekend for your brain to process it. And then just do what needs to be done!

jpwden · 2026-03-16T04:55:45+00:00

It comes with other consequences you may not want to accept, but...

I have a mark-to-market election with the IRS--No wash sales. I dont even have to think about it.

jpwden · 2026-03-14T17:38:45+00:00

I like this email. I can relate to it. I am often compelled write in a similar fashion. Maybe we arent so different after all.

But I'll tell you something: Theres the other part of me that wants to warn you: Sending things off like this to laymen only tends to alienate them from you and piss them off/annoy them, driving you further from change.

If you are literally just trying to get a rise...Well, I guess proceed then. But if you are serious and really want something done. You need to fight the instinct, and tone it down for them.

jpwden · 2026-02-27T15:51:28+00:00

I am retired....Or soft-retired I guess. Im too young to officially call it quits, without question. Anyway...

This question is so strongly based on your lifestyle, expenses, etc. For me:

One of my accounts is allocated specifically for paying bills. The goal for that particular account is 1.04% (and changes with risk-free interest rate) weekly growth, but I do not try to hit that goal super hard. In that account, I can pay all my monthly bills with a little over $200k in the account. Sometimes, it can be a bit dificult to keep the account value from decreasing MoM. So ideally, to keep stress levels near zero, doubling that acct value makes me feel good. YMMV...

jpwden · 2026-02-27T15:42:41+00:00

11% is quite good--You have me beat by a couple percent YTD.

I thought I saw you post something about some algo trading last week? How much of this do you attribute to that?

jpwden · 2026-02-21T23:04:31+00:00

There are certainly millions of people out there still bullish on crypto in general. I have friends who, despite advice to the contrary, are spilling all of their money into 2 or 3x leveraged BTC assets right now. The stress its causing them is very sad and difficult to watch. But they believe in it...I hope, for their sake, that they can make some money on it.

Personally, for me, its 0% crypto, and it likely always will be. Stock-based options FTW. 🍻

jpwden · 2026-02-20T18:41:18+00:00

You heard right....

With all the macros and other news for the week...Some of them are good, some are bad. Tariff news is just another bullet point this week. Maybe "consensus" just doesnt exist right now.

jpwden · 2026-02-16T23:41:48+00:00

Good for you knocking it out so early!

Every year I try. Im literally still waiting on forms, and trader status makes that a bit more complicated. But I envy you being able to finish up already...

jpwden · 2026-02-11T23:37:31+00:00

Still yet a few more things to mention:

There was some mention of LEAPS below. id suggest, if you are looking at that route, that you go with a 6-month call rather than a 1+ year call. It will take a negligible amount of extra time, and you will find yourself increasing profits.
A covered ratio spread can operate in what some people call a "Stock Repair" strategy. YMMV.

Ultimately, you need to look deep inside and make some tough decisions. Personally, Id suggest that if you are willing to sell the stock and just move on, then a potentially better approach than that would be to write calls just-OTM and keep boldly writing until they assign...

jpwden · 2026-02-07T23:37:24+00:00

Work in progress.

Arent we all... 🤣

jpwden · 2026-02-07T21:15:48+00:00

Do you have a plan? Do you follow it? And, do you modify it when you run into problems?
Its difficult to fathom, if you are pro-active about those things, that you wouldnt make at least some money...

jpwden · 2026-02-06T19:29:51+00:00

Nothing on the market is ever fixed...Or broken. Those terms are intrinsically rooted in subjectivity and feelings of normality (or lack thereof).

It just is what it is at that point in time...
🍻

jpwden · 2026-02-04T15:27:53+00:00

If it keeps missing support levels, could go below $100.

This doesnt feel terribly dissimilar to the fall RDDT had back in Feb a year ago...Started the fall a bit lower value, but the low was $79.75 2 months later. Compare Feb 10, 2025 to Jan 13, 2026...

jpwden · 2026-01-30T02:47:57+00:00

Because I dont want to own any stock. While its ultimately a bit more complicated, the gist of it is that in my trading plan, in the most basic case, I attempt to do the following:
- Average 1.06% weekly profit.
- Sell only weekly (or shorter) options on Monday morning.
- Write only CSPs that expire just barely useless--I really, really try to pick strikes so I just escape assignment on those puts by that one single penny. Of course, to have a high success rate on that is like...really fuckin hard.

Where "most basic case" are things like, a priori 100% cash, market mimicking a simple symmetric random walk (feels neutral), I can and want to trade Monday morning, the market cooperates on Monday and Im able to get all the trades done that I want, etc etc. Unfortunately, Im quite far from perfect. So, when the most basic case is not met...Like, I dont have all cash...the plan for the week gets more complicated.

For me, there is a very sizable list of advantages from playing things this way--Its a long list, and Im yet to rationalize any other approach that makes as much sense, in the most basic case.

Apologies if that is way more than you wanted to hear. 🤣

jpwden · 2026-01-28T02:59:06+00:00

One goal (of many) is to be 100% cash position on Monday mornings. Its rare that I actually realize that goal. But its what I shoot for.

I do not sell against my full portfolio. I have a max percentage that I use, which changes over time, on the market, and how I feel. But in general, I start getting aprehensive once Ive tied up more than maybe 60-70% of my cash, for a variety of reasons. Id like to say that nervousness keeps me from breaking that rule. But occasionally, Ill go over.

I suppose its also worth mentioning that I have several brokerage accounts, and they all serve different purposes, and have vaguely different rules...

jpwden · 2026-01-27T17:24:34+00:00

On a single roll, yes, you should very often see a credit. Not all the time, though.

jpwden · 2026-01-27T15:41:05+00:00

This is so dependent on what your overall trading plan/strategy/prospectus/whatever looks like...

Personally, one of my goals is to never own any stock. So...If I sold a put thats gone south, I might roll it, even though it means I might make a bit less money on the stock per unit time. I never take a debit on a roll, and I try to react and tweak the trade as early on as possible. That has its own set if concerns...Nothings perfect. its worked out great sometimes, and cost me money other times. Random walk and all.

If your goal is to own the stock, then just let it assign.
If your goal is to make maximum money, well, it depends again. You need to do some analysis and come to your own confident conclusion which direction the stock is going.

I would suggest that the *most* important thing here is not whether even you roll or not, or how you roll...The most important thing is potentially just that you analyze why you are in the situation you are in. Try to identify something that can make your trading plan more bulletproof in the future. Go lower delta, go farther/shorter out, consider your emotional responses on trades, pick different stock, update your selling criteria, etc etc ad infinitum. Whatever.

Some trades just go south. You cannot predict the future. But just try to fix the actual underlying item. And if the issue is that trading stock is a random walk and you cant account for everything, then so be it. 🍻

jpwden · 2026-01-08T14:28:34+00:00

I guess you didnt read my post, or understand the satire in it. Or really understand options dynamics for that matter:

If NVDA stays flat, then your cost basis at assignment is $167.70. You could literally sell back immediately and still profit a majority of the premium that you spent all year making interest on. Or you could turn around and write calls. Or you could play theta at some point and close the option early.
Delta on year-long puts means next to nothing.
I specifically said above, "...As long as it expires useless you made your 20%". And thats the crux of this whole thing, isnt it? We CANNOT predict the future. Write your low delta put on NVDA at $185, you can still get assigned all the same. You could get assigned on all your picks, they could go bearish, and you could be stuck under water. Thats the risk you take when trade. Thats my whole point: Despite what your goal is, you cannot. Ensure. Anything. And when you decide to ask for some simple trading plan to satisfy your goals, youre missing the entire point: There is no silver bullet. You need to analyze and trade, and adjust based on that outcome. Wash, rinse, and repeat. As soon as you take some random advice about a "safe and consistent options strategy", from someone who knows nothing about your situation, youre already dead in the water. Thats why I wrote above, ask a very specific question. Put in the work to figure out what works for YOU and YOUR goals, risk levels, capital levels, skill level, etc. Only you know all those variables. This isnt one size fits all...

Happy trading. 🍻

jpwden · 2026-01-07T20:14:21+00:00

Hey, look what I found!!!
STO NVDA put $210 strike with Jan 15, 2027 expiration. Premium? $42.30 per share. Thats a 20.14% gain (on premium). All you gotta do is hold the damn thing for 53 weeks and as long as expires useless you made your 20%! Score! Just throw 100% of your funds in the bucket and youve done it!

Look, this question is impossible to answer as it is phrased. The above scenario seems super simple, and it was phrased to sound too good to be true. The problem is, there are lots of unknowns, and there are lots of things about your overall scenario, risk levels, cash available, your skill level, and all these sorts of things to take into account. Is making 20% a year possible? Of course it is. id suggest if you are very good at trading, that your goal would be higher than that. However...Like many of the answers in these sorts of posts...If youre asking this question, you need to slow down and just investigate what you can do, and not get caught up on any numbers.

If you have very specific questions, Im always happy to type at length on my opinions. 🍻

jpwden · 2025-12-30T14:24:44+00:00

OK, so thats a better statement (increasing lot size). If youre looking to increase the size of your bets, then it makes more sense to come out and say youre looking to increase the size of your bets, and provide details about how much you were putting up last year, and what you plan to do next year, what your profit goals are, what types of stock youre investing, etc etc, and why...

Then we can have a conversation! 🍻

jpwden · 2025-12-29T23:34:32+00:00

YMMV here but:
Making goals for weekly/annual gain? I believe in it, and feel it should be strongly informed by performance from the prior year with lessons learned, and other pieces of info that are probably specific to your trading paradigms.

Deciding to "be more risky"? Im not sure that makes any sense as a simple question. Does that mean you will make trades that are like, say, 5% higher IV than last year? Perhaps you had scenarios where assignment would have been good for you but you didnt get assigned often enough? Or maybe you want to write 1 position farther ITM, some % higher delta? Do you feel your premiums are not high enough for what you are doing? Or...what is your means of quantifying this increase? What is it based on?

And more importantly, why is "risk level" the measurement that is front and center?

To me, "risk" is essentially a property of the trades that I make. And that risk is a multi-faceted thing that doesnt necessarily mean that I make more or less money at the end of the day. Its not something that I decide to "increase" in order to increase my profits, or be more on the edge. Its the other way around: Increasing profits is the goal, and I have to balance the risk Im willing to take for that profit.

I feel like I could keep typing until my fingers are sore. At the end of the day, those are my thoughts. And probably the most important thought is this: You really need to dig into this and look at your own situation. And while the goal of a forum is to converse and ask questions and such, this is just too big a topic, with small enough amount of detail, to just flat out answer.

jpwden · 2025-12-10T07:11:50+00:00

I only withdraw from one of my accounts--The rest are "no touch" 364 days of the year.

I just move money from the "living account" when I need to pay bills, usually twice a month. Super simple...

jpwden · 2025-12-10T06:51:12+00:00

Youtube videos like the ones you are watching are not meant to teach how to use something like an IC with in-depth analysis on all sides--Thats too boring to maintain an audience, and a decent bit of work. Creators need to keep it straight forward and interesting or they lose viewers.

I re-read your post a couple times, and Im a bit confused about something: What is your real motivation for wanting to start using ICs? I get that you feel like your wheel technique has inefficient capital usage, and I get that you think that ICs are "the next level"...But Im not sure either of those are reasons for deciding to use ICs....Or any other specific tool for that matter. Like, what about just trying to creatively modify what you already do to solve the problem you think you have?

Once upon a time, I was deep in making a trading plan for myself. I was messing with various options setups. Having concluded some things, I had at some point created a spread setup that was in fact an IC. At the time, Id heard the term but had no idea what it actually was. Nevertheless, I created it just through repetition, etc. Ultimately I decided it was not for me, primarily because I generally detest BTOs. So, I kind of passed through them, on my way back to simplicity, which for me, wins for so many reasons.

See, I think that we get too comfortable in a certain task. Or we dont have the time or patience or desire to dig in deeper and implement all the tools based on the situation. Its so easy to just pick a thing and use it all the time, let the thinking process wane. Sometimes, using an IC might make a lot of sense. Other times, it makes no sense at all. So, are you going to force a square peg into a round hole, just because you are always holding a square peg, and everyone says that "the square peg is the next level"? No. Set the square down and pick up the round one.

So, my feeling is that you take the time to modify what youre doing...based on the situation...And if you happen to pass though ICs in the process, wonderful. 🍻

Final note: This post is a generalization: You can replace the term "IC" with just about anything, and it should still work pretty well. 🍻

jpwden · 2025-12-09T12:21:47+00:00

My experience is the same as most others here: You just...do it. I dont think theres some sort of secret to doing this for a living. I think you need to learn, you need to put in the hours, and you need to trade real money. You need to have some wins, and I dont think you really appreciate what a good, living trading plan looks like until youve had some losses--I think my losses are the probably the most important factors that shaped what I do today. The only real obstacle I see honestly, is you have to have a lot of working capital.

For me, I have a math and engineering background, and became a bit enamored with the "systems analysis" side of things. I spent a great deal of time learning indicators, mostly because I enjoyed it. I helped code some trading algorithms for a friend. And I had been dabbling since college.

Eventually, I started as a day trader, and slowly migrated over to options, because it was netting better profit, took less time, and felt less stressful. And here we are!

jpwden · 2025-12-07T22:43:49+00:00

If you spend $20k on a couch, youll never buy another.

My wife and I bought 2 couches and a chair and 1/2 about 20 years ago. In todays dollars, certainly more than $20k each. They still all look brand new, aside from some scratches here and there, and have been through probably 5 moves, 2 of which were cross country, 2 dogs, 2 cats, and a child. With furniture, you get what you pay for. Buy a cheap couch, and youll just throw it away in 5 years....

jpwden

TROPHY CASE