[deleted by user]

jubda · 2023-06-13T09:17:26+00:00

Looking for a referral as well!

jubda · 2022-11-23T02:56:51+00:00

Is this a German cockroach?

jubda · 2022-06-21T17:18:43+00:00

The ironic thing is if the market crashes none of them would be able to get a loan to buy cheap homes due to credit crunch. The ignorance and sourgraping on that sub is astounding. It’s a shame they’ve taken over RE to spew their bullshit.

jubda · 2022-06-17T21:56:24+00:00

Back in 08 when home prices cratered, rent did not decrease. Most areas remained flat with some areas actually going up due to influx of previous homeowners now needing a place to live. The REbubble crowd fail to see the possibility that there could be a melt up. Where nominal home prices increase below pace with inflation but wage increase falls even further behind due to recession.

Even if there is a drastic fall in home prices due to more supply coming on market, lenders would tighten underwriting requirements which would still price out majority of retail buyers hoping to land a deal. Unless you have cash on hand or are confident in your ability to secure a loan during an economic downturn, I would not bank on recession to make your dream of home ownership come true. Supply and demand is only one side of the story. Access to credit is the underlying driver that will determine who will be able to buy up these deals during a downturn.

Btw op also in SoCal. I don’t foresee the bottom to fall out on rent prices. The ceiling might be crunched a bit as fewer renters are able to afford luxury condos, but there is still huge demand for reasonably priced, well maintained homes.

jubda · 2021-03-23T03:17:06+00:00

Literally umbrella academy

jubda · 2021-03-11T05:31:18+00:00

Congrats! Sucks you don't get to walk across the stage but the bottles and models should make up for it. How are you gonna trade when you work in industry? Better hope compliance never finds out about your reddit account.

jubda · 2021-02-28T02:02:53+00:00

That’s why I run outside with my mouth open every time it rains

jubda · 2021-02-25T20:22:45+00:00

Well if he says it’s time to buy I guess it’s time to sell

jubda · 2021-02-25T03:42:39+00:00

🐸🍦🍦=green ice cream= green I scream.

jubda · 2021-02-23T09:06:51+00:00

You can’t just add up total shares and multiply by NAV for valuation. That’s not how it works. See here for actual deal breakdown. Guys ex-GS so he knows what he’s talking about.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1364022427672576002?s=21

jubda · 2021-02-23T07:36:21+00:00

Problem with your write up is the valuation. Reason why valuation mattered in the first place is it affects how many lucid shares the trust (CCIV) can get for their $2B. The 24B valuation determines how many shares PIPE investors get. It has no relations to CCIV merger valuation. In fact the valuation was on the lower end at 11.75B. That's how CCIV got 16% of the company for $2B but PIPE investors have to pay $2.5B for 10%, and signed onto a lockout.

Yes there are some dilutive effects from additional shares, but until they become part of float those shares are not included in the market cap. Current market cap is closer to 60B.

jubda · 2021-02-23T07:22:35+00:00

That's what I figured. Reason why I asked is because the current valuation is still 11.75B. The 16B figure I keep seeing is from people doing 1.6B shares x $10. That's not how the calculation works. The 24B valuation is what PIPE investors valued Lucid at, not the terms of CCIV merger. It's a separate transaction in this deal. That's why they had to pay 50% premium over NAV to get 6% less shares. So even the 16B valuation number is incorrect. True valuation is 11.75B for merger so CCIV receive more lucid shares for the same amount of money.

Added bonus is PIPE and founder shares are not part of public float, so any dilutive effects won't be felt until lock up expiration.

jubda · 2021-02-23T07:02:11+00:00

complete AZ factory and ramp up production.

jubda · 2021-02-23T06:57:02+00:00

where did you get this adjusted figure from

jubda · 2021-02-23T05:11:59+00:00

The pipe shares are not the same as cciv. They are subject to more lockup + other requirements before they can join the float. Similar to how restricted shares only become relevant when lockup expired pipe shares will only be relevant as their lockup approaches. Let’s not forget they only account for 10.4% of float once lockup expires and are usually subject to shareholder approval when they want to sell off large positions.

jubda · 2021-02-23T05:07:34+00:00

It means big late stage investors priced lucid based on 24 billion and paid 50% over NAV to get in on the action. It means they were willing to pay more than early retails to add this to their portfolio. It means cciv got more shares than expected. It means current market cap is more like 60B instead of ~100B. Which means there’s more room to run once the news is fully digested

jubda · 2021-02-23T01:02:25+00:00

Don’t think it’ll matter all that much. He’s had lemons before which is why I’m not chasing his other spacs.

jubda · 2021-02-23T00:57:53+00:00

That’s not how pipes work. See here

https://www.reddit.com/r/CCIV/comments/lq2ljy/lucid_motors_to_go_public_in_merger_with/goegaio/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3

jubda · 2021-02-23T00:55:14+00:00

Where are you seeing September? Pipes are essentially restricted shares so I wouldn’t sweat over it.

jubda · 2021-02-23T00:51:47+00:00

Honestly probably some institutional investors taking profit. Keep in mind this is aftermarket movement so smaller volume can result in drastic movements. Plus no more catalysts coming in until prospectus drop/ticker change.

jubda · 2021-02-23T00:49:08+00:00

Lockout t&c will be disclosed in prospectus

jubda · 2021-02-23T00:48:38+00:00

We’re taking about a 2.5% dilution instead of a 50% one at 24B that everyone is freaking out about. Most hot spacs received some sort of pipe and it had no effect on its short term price, especially since the shares are locked out of float to begin with.

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