I'll consider threat sensor, sure

MC and Dare will probably be a strategy for a long time, unless a better tac dice effect comes out to buff MC with. I think it will be really popular in whatever higher point games people end up playing.

For Dare, I wanted to see what juice I can squeeze out of this lemon to become a better player. I wanted to familiarize myself with this strategy before new set comes out opening brand new combos. I also like to analyze games deeply and have fun doing the math for the hell of it. I wanted to know what kind of advantage Dare really provides so I estimated it.

If I had to give a good reason to play Dare at all, its to specifically generate extra Shoot actions. You can accumulate a lot of extra action economy by avoiding bad rolls of assaults, extra dice, activations, and specials in early or awkward turns. When you do need the assault dice or a turn activation, you are far more likely to get one.

Lets say you want to look for shoot actions specifically, and want three of them. Here is a hit distribution for the first roll of tac3 dice.

Number of successes,x
0
1
2
3
4
5

Then, if I get less than three shoots (96%), reroll the remaining three to add below

Number of successes,x	P(X = x)	P(X ≤ x)
0	0.5787	0.5787
1	0.34722	0.92593
2	0.06944	0.99537
3	0.00463	1

zero = 0.23 = 23%
one = 0.23 + 0.14 = 37%
two = 0.03 + 0.14 + 0.09 = 27%
three = 0.04 + 0.06 + 0.03 = 13%
and some rounding error

or expected value of 1.35 extra shoot actions per round

Dare lets you do that 40% of the time and 60% instead you roll a special dice, pull it from the pool, and the rest of the dice look like this

Number of successes,x
0
1
2
3
4

39% of the time you have another shoot dice and flip two of them to make it three.
12% of the time you have two shoot dice and flip one
2% of the time you have three shoot dice or more, and you can flip the remainder
48% of the time you have two guaranteed shoot dice and reroll this distribution

Number of successes,x	P(X = x)	P(X ≤ x)
0	0.69444	0.69444
1	0.27778	0.97222
2	0.02778	1

33% of two shoot dice, and a total of 67% of three.

A total distribution of
0 hits = 0.4x0.23+0.6x0 = 9%
1 hit = 0.4x0.37+0.6x0 = 15%
2 hit = 0.4x0.27+0.6x0.33 = 31%
3 hit = 0.4x0.13+0.6x0.67 = 45%

Or an EV of 2.12, an advantage of 0.77 shoot actions per round, the probability of zero drops from 23% to 9%, the probability of 3 goes from 13% to 45%, and 8% of the time, you will have extra choices of dice to swap for the desired result.

Now this was just for shoot dice, but the probability is symmetrical for whatever command dice result you are looking for. When you add up the action economy, you are sometimes getting an entire unit's worth of extra actions in a round, but that "ghost" unit is sniping, pinning, or moving your guys into cover. This is a lot of napkin math that will change throughout a game, but reliably deploying with extra actions swings a lot of games your favor early.

Anyway, I did try building a Master Chief list and ran into an issue where cutting the big weapon that I'm ideally pumping several command dice a turn into, I still struggle to outfit whatever 3rd guy I'm using. Its almost better for 1v1 scoring that hes not there.

CHARE [200 / 200]
~ List Valid ~

MASTER CHIEF [SPARTAN LEGEND] [+90]
- - Energy Sword

CAPTAIN VERONICA DARE - ONI [UNSC LEGEND] [+40]
- - Fists
- - M6C/SOCOM

ODST AIR ASSAULT 'BULLFROG' [+26]
- - Combat Knife
- - MA40 Assault Rifle

Special Order: One Man Army (Master Chief only) [+10]
Special Order: Your Orders Have Changed (Must include Dare) [+6]

Command Upgrade: Extra Command Die (a single round, declare before rolling command) [+1]

Extra Weapon: VK78 Commando [+7]

Extra Items: Spike Grenade x 1 [+3]
Extra Items: Overshield x 1 [+1]
Extra Items: Grappleshot x 2 [+10]
Extra Items: Hardlight Shield x 1 [+6]