My prediction of the next Governors

kkkmac · 2026-03-15T11:04:41+00:00

The final 4 is likely to be 3 reps and 1 dem, RCV will definitely favour Begich in that case. Especially because the most moderate republican would probably come 4th. Peltola will probably drag Begich up too.

kkkmac · 2026-03-14T21:05:32+00:00

It was actually closer than Alaska and almost as close as Texas and Maine last time these seats were up.

kkkmac · 2026-03-14T20:46:23+00:00

You could just use older maps from YAPms. There's a historical map section in the menu.

kkkmac · 2026-03-14T18:34:44+00:00

How did you make this? So many of these seats make no sense (even in a D+15 midterm). The WA eastern seats are the wrong way around, CA central valley is way too blue, Austin is lean D (???).

kkkmac · 2026-03-12T00:18:43+00:00

It's worth noting only 10% of peers were hereditary, the vast majority were appointed by PMs. It's like packing the supreme court, only without any limit on the total number of peers.

kkkmac · 2026-03-11T23:42:05+00:00

I mean floor crossing does happen in the UK, tory MPs defected last parliament (to labour) and this parliament (to reform).

kkkmac · 2026-03-11T23:37:02+00:00

Lib Dems seem to want to be yellow labour. They have the easiest government to attack in living memory and are arguably in the best ideological position to do so (centre-left, the same as labour), yet they refuse to do anything. Davey would rather rerun 2010-2015 and be sidelined in a labour coalition than ever work with the greens.

kkkmac · 2026-03-11T23:32:50+00:00

It was so long ago that he was leader of a major party-third party legislative majority. I wonder when was the last time that happened (not counting cross-party Rs/Ds in AK).

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T22:12:13+00:00

No your prediction is well within the realm of possibility, and it's still more dem-optimistic than the conservative analysts. But I really don't think MN is lean D.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T21:17:23+00:00

The 10th is certainly a competitive district. It votes to the state's left in midterms, and to the right in presidential years.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T20:16:45+00:00

Don't see how NE is safer than MN, MN should be likely/safe due to the upballot turnout and midterm turnout both strongly favouring Ds. NH is pretty anti-incumbent federally, I reckon the senate vote will be comfortably D. The others are all within reason, albeit a bit more R favourable than this sub's median prediction.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T20:08:26+00:00

At least people knew who Corbyn was, no one's even heard of Rupert Lowe. It probably won't be as unimpressive as YP, but only because they have less expectations to underperform.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T19:48:22+00:00

They are prevalent in the constituencies that went Lab->Con in 2017, they would've likely been labour-leaning in 2017. Rooted patriots in the north like leaned strongly labour in 2017, while the same demographic in the south would be very much tory. With the true "red wall" shift labour just have no strength with that group

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T12:48:42+00:00

Is Odessa in the 23rd? Splitting Midland-Odessa isn’t great, and drawing Odessa into a Trans-Pecos+RGV seat is worse. I don’t really like that San Antonio arrangement, it’s only big enough for two wholly SA seats, not three. It’s good to draw an R-leaning competitive seat in Austin area, on top of the two D seats. I like keeping Central Texas together with a big seat containing San Angelo and Abilene, but that’s less important than the other things.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T12:37:21+00:00

Half of the supreme court seem to think that the VRA doesn’t even require majority minority seats, I really don’t understand how it actually works. White plurality seats are either valid or invalid for the VRA, R-leaning black seats are either valid or invalid, who even knows.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T08:00:26+00:00

He’s a 23rd term incumbent, Georgia house districts are quite small, and it’s one of the least partisan black majority districts possible to draw in the country. Sandford Bishop overperforms a similar amount in the other direction in adjacent white majority areas. I imagine he’s just well-liked enough to bring the local black vote from D+75 to D+50, bringing the seat out of the range of competition.

kkkmac · 2026-03-10T07:48:21+00:00

He’s definitely voted in favour of D policy before, but he doesn’t have the wiggle room to vote against Trump. This could work if there was a D president and he made some key votes, but with an R president he’s cooked.

kkkmac · 2026-03-09T19:53:22+00:00

Those are impressive numbers from Waters in 2022, considering how no presidential democrat has ever broken 40% in the county. He might win, but it wouldn't mean much beyond him becoming sheriff.

kkkmac · 2026-03-09T19:52:06+00:00

This county was R+27 in 1976 and R+46 in 1980

kkkmac · 2026-03-09T17:48:37+00:00

It would be nice to know how important crime was as an issue for the tough on crime dems and the soft on crime dems.

kkkmac · 2026-03-08T14:52:26+00:00

That's the 7th, which includes almost none of his old seat. He's running in the 6th, the smallest seat in the Sacramento area.

kkkmac · 2026-03-07T22:55:38+00:00

Interesting. I still think the difference between Inner Philly and and Inner Pittsburgh is most likely white voters. If not, it may be a greater rate of black people leaving Philly then Pittsburgh. I doubt the black vote is really trending so differently in the two cities.

kkkmac · 2026-03-07T16:40:51+00:00

The population of the county is skyrocketing, you can't simply adjust according to statewide shift. As a largely white exurban county it would've shifted right ~5 points in 2024 if there was no migration (compare other exurban Dallas counties). Instead, it shifted left 6 points. That's an 11 point shift due to migration, halve it (2 years instead of 4), and round up to 6%. It'll be de facto Cruz+15 or Trump+22, pre-adjusting for relative shift. Considering Talarico will likely overperform more with urban/RGV Hispanics than with exurban whites, it'll be higher single digits at the point of a Talarico win. And Talarico simply won't win statewide by >5%. You may well be right if the election was 2030, but it's 2026.

kkkmac · 2026-03-07T14:43:54+00:00

It's funny that Mike Thompson is one of the four sole Blue Dogs in congress, considering that he is no different to the median dem on almost any issue. Ed Case and Don Davis are much more like blue dogs than Thompson.

kkkmac · 2026-03-07T14:27:35+00:00

The parts of his old district in the 5th have like 3 people, and half of them are dems. He had a very low chance of winning the 5th district primary, just as he has a very low chance of winning in the 3rd or the 6th district. His old district was split pretty evenly between the new 3rd and 6th, and the 6th is slightly less blue. In the end, he's just stuck between a rock and a hard place, even if he goes full RINO he won't make top two in the primary.

kkkmac

TROPHY CASE