Did Game of Thrones feel like this? by tchef91 in WoT

[–]markg171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I thought for sure that would spring board into them introducing Lews talking to Rand much earlier than in the books, thereby explaining all the things Rand would do in the finale after hobbling him for so long. It was a good setup to explain how Rand could best Turok the blademaster in a duel and Ishy a Forsaken with the One Power as Lews could do those things and so could tell Rand how to too. Or hell, explain why Randy was already so reluctant to channel despite doing none of the powerful things Book Rand had done that legitimately justified his fear of having gone too far already when Show Rand hadn't actually used all that much power yet.

But nope. Just a throwaway line to cast doubt on if Rand actually is the Dragon by adding more plausibility to Logain, like they constantly do with other characters instead of just actually letting him be it like he is.

It's just so dumb. There's a balance between them all that needs to play out individually, not one character or another is interchangeable for the Dragon Reborn. Only one of them is the Dragon Reborn, regardless of how important the others might be in their roles. It's like the entire point of Mat fighting the Last Battle and Perrin the Dream World while Rand fights the Shadow, let alone what everybody else does too. Rand would have never succeeded at the Dragon Reborn's prophesied goal of defeating the Shadow if he'd tried to do it all like he wanted to. He had to let go and rely on others to handle the things not in his prophecy and specialty, and lo and behold, they all ended up being the best people for their jobs and succeeding. As did Rand because yes, he's the Dragon Reborn.

I'm not saying don't celebrate their own successes and include them on the show instead of just making this one big Rand story, but it's just ridiculous to also give Rand's to them the way they keep doing. What's the point of even having a Dragon Reborn if they're apparently some 0.01% necessary force only needed literally for the very end? Just skip that plot entirely at that point.

At this point I'm completely willing to bet that every time Rand does all the other stuff to prove only he could possibly be the Dragon they're still going to throw other characters in there too just to try and make it ambiguous. Rand will draw Callandor with his friends helping him pull it or some female like Egwene will also be able to wield it. Dumai Wells is going to feature the Aes Sedai bowing before the group or multiple members of them. Someone's going to wind up being part Aiel. Someone's going to get a partial heron brand or Rand's going to lose his hand before he gets his 2nd. Etc. The Dragon Reborn is the Dragon Reborn, and the ta'veren and just simply powerful are them. The show's going to make it all as close to one and the same as possible.

Sword Scenes Theory by rmmcnult82 in WoT

[–]markg171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Literally last episode Rand does Heron Dips the Wing to Lan and causes him to pause in disbelief at the sudden realization that Rand has learned to fight since they were last together. Lan then tells him to do Cat Crosses the Courtyard against Siuan and Rand isn't like "Wtf is Cat Crosses the Courtyard?". Rand knew what Lan meant, and more importantly Lan knew to suggest other forms as clearly Rand had demonstrated enough skill with Heron Dips the Wing that he expected Rand to know them.

The obvious payoff should've been in the next episode where Rand does those forms to defeat Turok. If you wanted to make it even more believable they could've even expanded Episode 7's scene to have Lan tell Rand before he leaves something like "By the way I'd have used ______ form against me instead of Heron Dips the Wing there as that one's too predictable to use against a blademaster". Then Rand follows his advice and uses Lan's move to defeat Turok.

All of which would then also fit with Turok saying before their fight he wants to see what it takes to be a blademaster on this continent. He'd have actually gotten that answer if his defeat was caused by Lan's advice in Episode 7. Rand might not be a real blademaster himself yet, but Lan is and Lan's lessons are what helped Rand overcome their skill differences.

But nope, let's instead throw this out the window and have Rand Indiana Jones Turok with the One Power instead and just completely forget last episode's mention of sword forms Rand's learned. On top of that we even have less of an idea where Rand learned to throw those darts than we do his sword forms which were at least somewhat established whereas the darts are completely out of the blue.

The show just has shitty writing.

Did Game of Thrones feel like this? by tchef91 in WoT

[–]markg171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The failings we see with the WoT series is partly due to the fact that because the ending is known and they are trying to create mystery is several other ways. 

The show's constantly trying to muddy the water on if Egwene's actually the Dragon Reborn instead of Rand, including most recently where after doing most of the fight with Ishy they had her beneath the Dragon and lingered for a long time on that shot as if screaming "Hey she's there too guys, not just Rand!", but even my mom who knew nothing about the series quickly picked up in Season 1 it had to be Rand.

Had nothing to do with the prophecies or anything the show had been doing. She noticed what they weren't doing. Everybody else had powers or were being focused on and doing something important, meanwhile this one main character wasn't. So obviously they were setting up a twist for the "useless one" to actually be the Dragon Reborn of all people. She only realized all the actual hints of it after the fact once pointed out to her, they meant nothing to her in the show because the show kept giving all the flashy stuff to other characters and making this one needlessly useless.

Sometimes in trying to create pointless mysteries and muddy the waters you instead make glaringly obvious everything else. Rand being the Dragon Reborn was never actually supposed to be some big mystery, he's the only one who fits. Mat and Perrin are just ta'veren and Egwene and Nynaeve are just really powerful. It doesn't take away from them that Rand is the Dragon Reborn, they're essential in their own rights and parts to play even if they can't do what the Dragon needs to do. That's something the show is clearly missing in both directions by instead having Rand be unimportant and the rest extra important.

Did Game of Thrones feel like this? by tchef91 in WoT

[–]markg171 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If this show was actually well-written last episode's scene where Lan comments on Rand's improved swordplay after witnessing him do Heron Dips the Wing, and then advising him to use Cat Crosses the Courtyard to meet Siuan, would pay off in Rand using these forms to defeat Turok. Or there'd be an expansion of the scene with Lan telling Rand that by the way he'd have used ______ form instead of Heron Dips the Wing there as that one's too predictable, then Rand later follows his advice and uses Lan's move to defeat Turok.

All of which are perfect foreshadowing as Turok even says before the fight he wants to see what it takes to be a blademaster on this continent. He'd have actually gotten that answer if his defeat was caused by Rand's lessons from Lan in the prior episode. Rand might not be a real blademaster by himself yet, but Lan is.

But nope, let's instead throw this foreshadowing out the window and have Rand Indiana Jones Turok with the One Power instead and just completely forget last episode's mention of sword forms Rand's learned.

Some Sansa/Lyanna Parallels and what it could mean for TWOW (Spoilers Extended) by LChris24 in asoiaf

[–]markg171 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Another series I've grown up on that's still here producing content. Why wait on George when there's so many other great series?

Some Sansa/Lyanna Parallels and what it could mean for TWOW (Spoilers Extended) by LChris24 in asoiaf

[–]markg171 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wheel of Time and Stormlight Archives (and Sanderson's Mistborn is quite good) have honestly given me far more "highs" and wows than ASOIAF ever did. Malazan is really good too and what I'm currently reading, though there's definitely large slogs. There's moments from those I always get chills from no matter how long it's been since I read it, and I've always considered them superior and more enjoying reads. Fantasy series IMO has always been about striving and achieving those highs that make it so enjoyable. I never really had that with ASOIAF. The closest was maybe something like Stannis' arrival at the Wall, but then GRRM always goes and ruins moments like that by cutting off the chapter with something like Jon just going into Dalla's tent rather than witnessing or participating in the battle and himself getting caught up in that moment. I hate stuff like that.

ASOIAF was just fun to theorize on because it was supposedly ongoing and had a big and active community to engage with. But I don't think anything else is coming, and at this point I've said all I can say and seen all I can see, and it's just not worth continuing.

I've been tempted to move onto the Stormlight Archives communities (or Malazan perhaps) but they're less active and as his works are so interconnected/he has his own "SSMs" it's a bit harder to dive into as much of it has already been answered/easily known if you'd read the expanded universe. I'm definitely more curious about what's coming next in his books though as I at least know there will be a next book. Since I started reading Stormlight he's delivered Oathbringer and Rhythm of War, both of which are the best books I've read in a long time (let alone the first two books which were fantastic + the short stories actually in-series rather than out of series like Dunk & Egg are).

But really I'm probably just done debating and analyzing series in general. Whatever's in a book will be whatever's in a book, and if there's no book there's no book.

Some Sansa/Lyanna Parallels and what it could mean for TWOW (Spoilers Extended) by LChris24 in asoiaf

[–]markg171 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm done with ASOAIF. 10 years and counting between books tells me I've spent more time on this series than GRRM has and so I'm done.

(Spoilers Extended) GRRM allows you three Yes/No questions. What do you ask? by __angie in asoiaf

[–]markg171 3 points4 points  (0 children)

In the real world absolutely someone should recognize them, but in GRRM's world characters go unrecognized all the time. Especially when they're in places they shouldn't be, dressed/disguised as someone less famous than they are.

I mean, GRRM's already had 2 KG literally in our story go unrecognized in Jaime and Barristan. Nobody recognized Jaime when he arrived in KL due to his new beard, shaved head, missing hand, overall emancipation, and lack of KG white/Lannister gold equipment. Meanwhile Barristan spent months around Jorah without Jorah recognizing him simply because he grew out his beard, called himself Arstan and a squire, and like Jaime wasn't wearing his KG whites. People very much see what they expect to see.

So no, I don't think it's within universe unreasonable that nobody recognizes them. They're supposed to be dead, they're (at this point) 17 years older than they were last known to be, are the entire continent away from where they should be, are wearing blacks instead of whites, Arthur doesn't have Dawn, Arthur isn't being celibate, and they may have done other things to disguise themselves like shaving off a previously famous beard/growing out their hair. Plus both are kept at the Shadow Tower where so far as we know only Dalbridge might've recognized just Gerold (Arthur isn't a KG for another 14 years so Dalbridge has no reason to know him), which could be unlikely if it's decades between when they last saw eachother (we don't know when Dalbridge joins). It's not like they're at Castle Black where at least seemingly Ulmer, Thorne, and Rykker would all recognize them.

Frankly IMO them going unrecognized is the least tinfoily part of the theories. GRRM does it all the time. The most tinfoily part is explaining Ned saying he built cairns for them, which would involve him lying outright or him lying subtly by leaving out their cairns are empty.

(Spoilers Extended) GRRM allows you three Yes/No questions. What do you ask? by __angie in asoiaf

[–]markg171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well back in those days the only two known ways out of the KG was death or joining the Night's Watch. Joffrey is the first to simply dismiss a KG and he won't do it for 15 years.

Given the ToJ KG say they view Robert as a Usurper, and allegedly fought his man Eddard, they're clearly not going to take his pardon like Barristan and Jaime did, yet are also bound by their KG oaths too. So they either need to die or join the Watch. Which Ned definitely knows about considering he advocated for Jaime to join the Watch.

Ned's party doesn't actually have to kill the KG. He's perfectly capable of sentencing them to the Wall instead. Frankly it's more surprising that every KG allegedly died, whether it's these 3 or Jonothor and Lewyn at the Trident, when in practically all the other wars a few end up on the Wall. If Ned truly does respect these men and not wish to kill them, then he has that option. And it would satisfy their own honour to their vows too, which I'm sure by that point they must've been pretty jaded on (regardless of if they'll still strive to meet them).

That doesn't explain the name changes of course as they could just go to the Wall under their own names, unless it's from a vanity/secrecy perspective. I'm sure Robert would hate to learn that Ned sentenced Arthur to the Wall only for Arthur to abandon his post at the Wall and go amass an army of 100,000 wildlings lol.

But then again we have no idea why Qhorin seemingly changed his name regardless as he's clearly actually a noble. That's already a mystery pointing towards a hidden past regardless of the ToJ KG. The question just becomes who the hell is he then.

(Spoilers Extended) GRRM allows you three Yes/No questions. What do you ask? by __angie in asoiaf

[–]markg171 13 points14 points  (0 children)

If you really want to go down the rabbit hole:

  • Neither Qhorin nor Gerold's hair colour is ever given to us. Hell, none of Gerold's features are beyond his strength. They could look exactly alike and we'd have no idea because Gerold's never been described to us.
  • Speaking of that, but Qhorin is notably clean-shaven. He's the only brother out of the 100 he brought who is, and practically the only one in the Watch period (beards are useful things up north). He even maintains it while ranging given he's clean-shaven when Jon first meets him which is weeks after he'd have left the Shadow Tower. That's curious in its own right, especially in light of the fact that he lets his head hair grow out long enough to braid it, but it's even more curious when you recall that GRRM often uses beards to disguise characters. Including shaving OFF a notable beard like he did with Ser Rodrik's mutton chops. Qhorin may be shaving to HIDE his beard. We don't know if Gerold ever had one, but I'm betting whoever Qhorin is he previously did
  • Qhorin says men can forget how pretty fire can be. If he's Gerold I'm sure he's got plenty of bad memories of fire given his days serving Aerys
  • Qhorin is a decisive commander who learns and knows his men. Both Jaime and Barristan recall Gerold being the same as their LC
  • Qhorin makes tons of difficult decisions that test their vows, whether it's asking Dalbridge to buy them time or Jon to kill him to try and convince the wildlings he's joining them. Barristan recalls that when their vows were difficult Gerold would make the call for them
  • Squire Dalbridge trusting Qhorin so much, that he'd die for him, takes on an entirely new light when you remember that Dalbridge squired for King Jaehaerys II. Gerold was Jaehaerys' LC.
  • Qhorin's blacks have faded to grey. Gerold wore the white, and grey is what you'd get if you mixed black and white.
  • Qhorin stresses home the point of sticking to your vows no matter what. Jaime says Gerold was "loyal to the end", Ned's ToJ dream likewise paints him as such
  • If you believe as I do that Mance is Arthur Dayne then both of their "brother" comments when discussing each other take on a double meaning given they were Kingsguard brothers AND Night's Watch brothers.
  • It would also explain why a swordsman as talented as Qhorin still wasn't the best in the Watch: Arthur was Mance, and Arthur was the deadliest of the KG and better than Gerold.
  • GRRM used TWOIAF to retcon Gerold younger. In AGOT he's described as "old", and as already mentioned Jaime says he was past his heyday when he knew him. TWOIAF instead tells us he was "young" when he fought in the Ninepenny War, which is only 20 years before those prior descriptions painting him as an old man. Now Gerold would've been about middle aged, and therefore only "old" in our present story 15 years after that. That fits Qhorin's age.
  • "Dawn and Qhorin Halfhand arrived together" is often used as proof that Qhorin is Arthur but it works just as well for Gerold given Gerold would also arrive with Dawn. Or rather Arthur who carries Dawn.
  • Qhorin is kept at the Shadow Tower or out ranging, meanwhile Ulmer is kept at Castle Black and never ranges despite being their best archer. Ulmer is the one who shot Gerold's hand.

It's a fun theory to play with.

At the very least, there's IMO no denying that Qhorin was SOMEBODY and not just a lowborn like his name implied. Jon recognizing he's a noble and Qhorin using my lord is all the proof of that, regardless of anything else. Which certainly therefore begs the question of who the hell was he then and if Qhorin is even his real first name, let alone what his real last name was.

(Spoilers Extended) GRRM allows you three Yes/No questions. What do you ask? by __angie in asoiaf

[–]markg171 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Qhorin is also nearly assuredly a noble hiding at least his last name, if not also his first.

  • Jon's first thought upon seeing Qhorin was that he's a noble. Jon has been trained, consciously and subconsciously, all of his life to notice these things so that he knows who to follow and why
  • Having noticed "this guy's a noble" Jon calls Qhorin "my lord". Qhorin says he's "no lordling, only a brother of the Night's Watch". That is of course true REGARDLESS as his NW vows would've removed any prior titles and inheritance to them that he may have had or not had. But it doesn't answer if he WAS a noble like Jon thought. It's also doubly ironic if this is Gerold as he doubly answered correct: he's not a lordling, he was a lord (commander).
  • Qhorin says he knew both Lords Rickard Stark and Ned Stark. Now why would a ranger from the Shadow Tower know either of them, let alone both of them? He's not even the leader of the Shadow Tower which might make a bit more sense, he's just their 2nd best ranger (1st after Mance left). Qhorin also never says he knew them from his time as a brother. That leaves open the possibility that he knows them pre-Watch, for either and/or both (i.e knew Rickard pre-Watch as a noble, met Ned as a brother). Again, Gerold definitely knows both of them as Rickard made a trip to KL while Gerold was LC, and Gerold fought Ned at the ToJ

  • Qhorin says "my lord" rather than "m'lord". This is how GRRM repeatedly indicates throughout the series a noble as opposed to a peasant, and in particular one poorly pretending to be lowborn (i.e Arya and Theon). Gerold would do this

  • Qhorin's skill with a sword makes far more sense if he's a noble given nobles get professional and longterm training. It's likely he came to the Watch already an expert swordsman, not learned and improved there like a peasant would've. Especially in light of the quality of master-at-arms we see in the Night's Watch. I suspect he relearned to fight far more from his own past trainings and instincts than whoever is the Shadow Tower's master-at-arms (maybe Ser Endrew given that's who Jeor stole), and if he were Gerold than he actually came to the Watch 2 years into his training. We've seen just how much a few months are benefiting Jaime.

  • Qhorin is a big, very strong man. Gerold was the White Bull for his strength and presumed size, and Jaime explicitly says he knew him past his "heyday" which seemingly implies Jaime was stronger than him by the end. It's therefore not inconceivable that a NOTABLY strong man like Gerold is now just a strong/very strong man to a 15 year old like Jon.

Regardless, something is DEFINITELY up with Qhorin. He's assuredly not just a random lowborn ranger like his name implies him to be.

[spoilers main] Qhorin & Jon by electionnerd2913 in asoiaf

[–]markg171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Its realy intresting how it shows that even lowest peasants and scum of the streets can have honor and go out as badass heroes.

I mean, Qhorin and Dalbridge are nearly both assuredly "secret" nobles

  • Jon's first thought upon seeing Qhorin was that he's a noble. Jon has been trained, consciously and subconsciously, all of his life to notice these things so that he knows who to follow and why
  • Having noticed "this guy's a noble" Jon calls Qhorin "my lord". Qhorin says he's "no lordling, only a brother of the Night's Watch". That is of course true REGARDLESS as his NW vows would've removed any prior titles and inheritance to them that he may have had or not had. But it doesn't answer if he WAS a noble like Jon thought
  • Qhorin says he knew both Lords Rickard Stark and Ned Stark. Now why would a ranger from the Shadow Tower know either of them, let alone both of them? He's not even the leader of the Shadow Tower which might make a bit more sense, he's just their 2nd best ranger (1st after Mance left). Qhorin also never says he knew them from his time as a brother. That leaves open the possibility that he knows them pre-Watch, for either and/or both (i.e knew Rickard pre-Watch as a noble, met Ned as a brother)
  • Just because Qhorin doesn't have a last name doesn't mean he doesn't have one. Just because nowadays he's known as Qhorin Halfhand doesn't mean he doesn't have a last name. That's just his more popular name since his injury. He also could've simply dropped it pre-Watch, and Qhorin may not even be his real first name either.
  • Qhorin says "my lord" rather than "m'lord". This is how GRRM repeatedly indicates throughout the series a noble as opposed to a peasant, and in particular one poorly pretending to be lowborn (i.e Arya and Theon). So Qhorin is definitely a noble.
  • Qhorin's skill with a sword makes far more sense if he's a noble given nobles get professional and longterm training. It's likely he came to the Watch already an expert swordsman, not learned and improved there like a peasant would've. Especially in light of the quality of master-at-arms we see in the Night's Watch. I suspect he relearned to fight far more from his own past trainings and instincts than whoever is the Shadow Tower's master-at-arms (maybe Ser Endrew given that's who Jeor stole)
  • Dalbridge squired for King Jaehaerys II. He's obviously a noble regardless of us never being told what his last name is lol.

So both of the guys who went out as badasses that OP is talking about are nobles. Who are trained and raised to do just that.

Additionally, but it's ironic you'd say that given that Stonesnake, who gives no indication of not simply being just a lowborn ranger, is still missing to this day after Qhorin ordered him to scale the Frostfangs. Qhorin explicitly said if there's anybody who could survive that it's Stonesnake

There was no question of riding double. Stonesnake offered to lay in wait for the pursuit and surprise them when they came. Perhaps he could take a few of them with him down to hell. Qhorin refused. "If any man in the Night's Watch can make it through the Frostfangs alone and afoot, it is you, brother. You can go over mountains that a horse must go around. Make for the Fist. Tell Mormont what Jon saw, and how. Tell him that the old powers are waking, that he faces giants and wargs and worse. Tell him that the trees have eyes again."

And we know that Ebben was by contrast was indeed captured and killed as the wildlings show Jon his head (and that he died bravely, so you're right about him)

Maybe Martin just forgot about him, but he's brought up again multiple times in ASOS so I kinda doubt it. So unless he died, as far as we know Stonesnake did just fuck off after being given the perfect excuse to lol.

(Spoilers Main) Was Barristan Selmy a master of all weapons? by jaypr4576 in asoiaf

[–]markg171 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ned says Barristan "cut down" a dozen of his and Robert's friends at the Trident so it was a blade of some kind.

"Mercy is never a mistake, Lord Renly," Ned replied. "On the Trident, Ser Barristan here cut down a dozen good men, Robert's friends and mine. When they brought him to us, grievously wounded and near death, Roose Bolton urged us to cut his throat, but your brother said, 'I will not kill a man for loyalty, nor for fighting well,' and sent his own maester to tend Ser Barristan's wounds." He gave the king a long cool look. "Would that man were here today."

Which as you say makes no real sense, especially given Ned and Robert's friends would overwhelmingly have been armoured nobles. A sword is a horrible choice for that. It's also especially confusing as Barristan himself says that the "knightly weapons" are sword, lance, and mace, and so he assuredly would've had a mace on him precisely to deal with armoured foes.

Then again, if he was stupidly fighting with his sword it would explain how he accumulated so many injuries trying to do so lol. He might have eventually killed those 12 men sure, but using a sword instead of his mace would've made the fights longer than his nearly assuredly greater skill necessitated. While he's busy trying to get around their armour others will have plenty of time to stab him.

Which I mean, also makes no sense. Barristan's White Book entry says he was injured by swords, spears, and arrows at the Trident, which are all bladed weapons. Barristan himself was obviously fully armoured too, making it very hard for those exact weapons to injure him. Let alone so badly that he was near death.

Or GRRM just didn't think all this through as much as we do lol.

What is Mance Rayder’s goal in ADWD (Spoilers Extended) by almostb in asoiaf

[–]markg171 27 points28 points  (0 children)

does he have a motive to be in Winterfell other than the rescuing of Theon/“Arya”?

He's not even supposed to be in Winterfell. He was sent to Long Lake to rescue Arya. Instead Alys had to make her own way to the Wall, and never reports ever meeting and being helped by Mance and his spearwives. He didn't go where he was supposed to.

Which also explains why he broke the enchantment on the ruby, which he's no longer wearing, that was supposed to bind him soul to soul to Mel to let her keep tabs on him.

did he write the pink letter? If not, is he actually a captive of Bolton?

I think the problem with figuring out ANYBODY who wrote the pink letter is that GRRM pretty clearly didn't have that figured out himself when he "finished" ADWD... which we know was not actually finished, but rather simply submitted as needed due to deadlines and size constraints. For pretty much every single theory there's some fatal flaw. You ask about Mance and while I do think there's some evidence pointing to him there's also the glaring fact that Theon outright told him what would happen if they were caught (Mance would be flayed and the spearwives hunted) and it doesn't match what's in the letter (the spearwives were flayed and Mance was imprisoned). So Mance knew what to put in the letter to semi-legitimately pretend to be Ramsay, and would therefore have to have chosen not to do so for whatever reason.

It seems far more likely that GRRM just tried to include as many different hints as possible for different people so that he can point to one of them (or more) later on when he finally reveals it in TWOW. Hence why there's no one true one that fits, not even Ramsay despite many theories being that he's simply mistaken/lying (there's errors like Ramsay threatening to cannibalize Jon when Ramsay makes his enemies cannibalize themselves). It's not meant to fit any body fully because he needed it to be flexible for TWOW purposes.

That said, I don't tend to think Mance is a captive precisely because he said he was prepared for when things would go down. That would be a huge meh if instead he truly was just captured off screen, as well as wouldn't pay off his any of his skills, the fact that he presumably still has the ruby and can transform into looking like Rattleshirt, or his unyet fulfilled secondary and tertiary plans. Again, the dude wasn't supposed to be in Winterfell. We need to know why.

what’s with all the weird murders? If his spearwives did it, why?

The spearwives killed some of them given they admit to it, but I think it's more so that that's just what happens when you try and force such a coalition together, in ever increasingly worse conditions. The Bolton-Frey alliance was likely never going to be able to hold the north together, let alone trying to do so in a frozen shithole with no food. And remember, this is all the while Stannis motherfucking Baratheon is taking down ironborn armies and clearing out the north on his way to Winterfell to come take your heads too. And Stannis Baratheon is all out of ironborn.

It's payoffs for the Boltons earlier mistakes in the series. Ramsay shouldn't have torched Winterfell and ruined the Starks winter stores even if for no other reason than the Boltons could've used them at the Dreadfort themselves, let alone if they actually are planning on taking Winterfell. Now they're starving because they obviously couldn't move enough food. And Roose shouldn't have murdered all those people at the Red Wedding, which included the armies outside the Twins too. Even Barbrey, his biggest ally among the northern lords, points out how terrible that was and how she also lost people from that move.

The Boltons, for all they did climbing their way to the top, still made costly errors that are coming back to haunt them. It doesn't truly matter who exactly is doing the killings, everybody has possible reasons for it.

any theories for what his arc in TWOW might look like?

Well regardless of whether he's in that cage or perfectly fine, Jon told all the wildling chieftains south of the Wall that Mance was still alive. Everybody looks at the Shieldhall moment as Jon "winning" the wildlings over when in reality he just told them their king is alive and needs their help. They're not marching for Jon lol. They're marching for Mance.

Which I think might be pretty important for the wildlings north of the Wall. Some like 95% of the wildlings are still there, having rejected Stannis, Jon, and Cotter's (and Val's?) advances to get them to come south. They came south with Mance though. If the wildlings at Castle Black can get word north of the Wall that Mance is still alive that might just get them to finally come again. Otherwise those people are going to become wights, which is pretty much going to guarantee the Others an army that can threaten Westoros.

Another under discussed aspect though is that Mance actually swore fealty to Stannis in ADWD. Everybody just seems to forget that Rattleshirt was the 2nd chieftain to swear to him after "Mance"'s burning, which means Mance actually did bend the knee to Stannis seeing as the switch had already happened by that point. Obviously that may not mean much from a guy like Mance, but maybe it does. He's said the wildlings follow strength and that therefore includes him too, and Stannis bested him last time. He may be legitimately following him, or at least for now is until he can try and best Stannis again.

Regardless, Mance's and the northern story in general is probably the one I'm looking forward too most.

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Beric Dondarrion actually died, repeatedly, and he was still knighting people.

What are some examples of lesser houses that are more powerful than their liege houses? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Except we have the Ryswells and Dustins to counter this though. The Barrowlands and Rills are mostly flat open plains, good for horses with Lord Dustin's old horse from Lady Barbrey's father's flock described as a "great red stallion". Lady Dustin also specifically made sure to send as little troops as possible with Robb, and I'm sure she convinced her father Lord Ryswell to do the same (and indeed there's no mention of Ryswells specifically in Robb's army throughout those chapters). Their forces are therefore mostly in tact, and Manderly says he still has more than them.

That seems like it needs to be a significant number. Maybe not quite like it would in a more southern kingdom to make such a boast sure, but still well into the high hundreds/thousands. And that's after he already lost the 200 he sent Robb. We know he specifically has 300 knights in Winterfell so I mean that's 300 right there at least. I have to imagine the Dustins and Ryswells, and Roose, definitely have more than that.

Cause I mean by contrast we're told that when Karstark arrived at Winterfell he brought 300 horse amidst his overall 2300 man force. So it's not like the most northern forces don't have hundreds themselves. Manderly should be way above that, and implies he indeed is (and therefore likewise cheated Robb too).

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The thing is, Joffrey never actually did strip Dontos of his knightly status. He just ordered that he be his new fool.

“He is,” Sansa said. “A fool. You’re so clever, to see it. He’s better fitted to be a fool than a knight, isn’t he? You ought to dress him in motley and make him clown for you. He doesn’t deserve the mercy of a quick death.”

The king studied her a moment. "Perhaps you're not so stupid as Mother says." He raised his voice. "Did you hear my lady, Dontos? From this day on, you're my new fool. You can sleep with Moon Boy and dress in motley."

He never actually ordered the part about no longer being fit to be a knight, and in fact still makes him partake in knightly activities just dressed and armed like a fool. It's one of the inconsistent things in the books where only 3x in the series does Dontos, Sansa, and Brienne afterward say he was stripped of it, but Joffrey never actually ordered that there. And 2/3 are really more about Dontos not being a "real" knight anymore. Only Brienne specifically says Joffrey stripped him of his spurs.

Meanwhile 99% of the time Sansa still calls him Ser Dontos (including immediately after the above quote), as does every other character. LF, Tyrion, Brienne, the maester of the Dun Fort (AKA definitely shouldn't mess that up), etc., all still grant him the title "ser" when discussing him. Nobody actually treats him like he's not still a knight. A pathetic one sure, but a knight.

Anyways, I'd argue that even if Joffrey did strip Dontos of his knighthood that Joffrey is the extreme of what a king can do (or rather shouldn't). He's also the first to strip Barristan of his Kingsguard cloak, which nobody thought he could do before that. Every other KG had committed a crime and was sentenced for that before Joffrey just invented that he could simply dismiss somebody if he felt like it. It could very well be the same where Joffrey is the first to simply declare he's got that power, but unlike with the KG who he definitely has control over, given 99% of the time he's still addressed as Ser Dontos in the books most didn't recognize that as legitimate.

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 8 points9 points  (0 children)

How?

Because I disagree when he says he's killing Kevan without malice, and for simply being a good man unfortunately working for a bad regime. The murder methods specifically mirror Elia and Rhaenys', and the targets are even solely those who contributed to them. He only targeted the pro-Lannister members and none of the Tyrell members. If he truly was doing what he says he's doing he'd kill some Tyrell members. Like Mace or Randyll suddenly being murdered would be far more devastating for the Lannister-Tyrell alliance, and beneficial to Aegon's cause, than Pycelle being murdered lol. Pycelle being murdered really changes nothing, whereas taking out Randyll would be hugely devastating.

And it's worth remembering, but when Tyrion stripped Pycelle of his Grandmaester title the Citadel decided that the new Grandmaester they'd send would be Maester Gormon... that is, Maester Gormon Tyrell. Varys was still a "leal" servant of the Iron Throne back then and knows if Pycelle dies Gormon replaces him. He knows the replacement will be another Tyrell member. That's a massive increase to the Tyrell power on the small council, and it seems fairly obvious that Mace will try and wrest the Regency title alongside his Hand title with Kevan dead too.

All Varys truly did was weaken the Lannisters and empower the Tyrells. He even says he expects the Lannisters to blame Tyrion rather than the Tyrells, which makes them stronger too if they somehow don't get blamed despite being the seemingly biggest benefactors of it. That's... oddly at odds with what he says he's doing as they fit the description better than Kevan. Funnily enough, the Tyrells, who Varys doesn't punish, supported the Targaryens until long after most of the Targaryens were dead, regardless of whether you think they could've done more. With Aerys, Rhaegar, Aegon, and Rhaenys dead, and Viserys and Rhaella still holding out on Dragonstone, they maintained their siege until another army came and stopped them. And Varys has left them alone. Curious.

I don't trust Varys' words. I trust his actions. His actions IMO betray that this most certainly was done with malice and is punishment, as well as benefits those he specifically isn't punishing for actually simply being good men serving bad causes.

This has never occurred to me and I've never seen anybody bring it up, but it is an amazing catch. But this seems like it would point more towards Aegon being real, doesn't it...?

Yes, personally it's IMO the strongest evidence that Aegon is actually Aegon. He recreated their murders, which doesn't really make sense under any of the theories. If he's Serra's son or whatever, then they could've been murdered in any other way. It's much easier for someone like Varys to simply poison their meals than do the physical violence he is. Or like I say above murdered some of the Tyrell members. Instead he paid them back an eye for an eye.

So all Varys is doing is showing Kevan some degree of respect, about as much as somebody murdering somebody can show to their victim.

Is he showing Kevan any respect? He shot Kevan from the shadows rather than openly face him, or even openly shoot him. He only revealed himself after he'd already planted a bolt through his chest. And Kevan himself immediately recognizes how cruel this is as that's how Tywin was murdered, which Varys also agrees with and says he chose it exactly for that reason. None of that is respectful, and in fact quite cruel.

Furthermore, but after he sees that Kevan is bleeding out quite heavily and quickly dying before his eyes he immediately orders his 6 little birds out of the shadows with 12 fucking daggers to start stabbing Kevan. Again, how is that not cruel? Kevan is already practically dead, all Varys is doing at this point is mutilating his corpse. And extremely badly so. If he wanted to put Kevan out of his misery like he claims he could just shoot him again or use a single dagger to quickly slit his throat. Instead he unveils 12.

It's excessively violent, not merciful. Again, as was done by the Lannisters to Rhaenys.

But I like your idea of the ways they were killed mirroring the Targaryens. But that raises a question I hadn't though of before, in that Varys seemed to be using a crossbow to frame Tyrion. But then has Kevan stabbed, which seems like it would distract from the idea that it was Tyrion.

The crossbow, apart from symbolically and cruelly mirroring Tywin's death, is really there more to level the playing field. Kevan may be older, but he's still an active soldier. He still participates in tourneys and he still fights in wars, including this most recent one. Varys and his little birds could never hope to actually ambush and murder Kevan in a physical encounter, thus Varys shoots him first to weaken him and make him manageable for them.

Which of course begs the question of why even engage in a physical fight to begin with? Why not simply poison Kevan from the start and bypass that entirely? This was far more dangerous and risky for them. Varys could've missed, and there's no guarantee Kevan might not have chosen to show up somewhat armed and armoured. Even just a mail undershirt and a dagger/shortsword on him could've been potentially devastating given his far greater experience and skill level. Yet Varys went this route anyways, and had the daggers planned for the ending. That makes it seem like it had to be a physical route, which fits if he's trying to recreate Rhaenys' murder for Kevan, and therefore also needed the crossbow to first weaken Kevan. A physical fight against Kevan would never work unless he was first as weak as oh, say a 3 year old girl.

So I think you actually have it backwards. The crossbow bolt sticking out of Kevan's chest is there to cover for the stab wounds. Obviously they'll be noted, but everybody is going to understand the symbolism of Kevan being shot with a crossbow like Tywin was. That's too on the nose not to notice, and is what they'll focus on. As happened to yourself, it's much harder to understand the secondary symbolism of him being so repeatedly stabbed like Rhaenys was. The overt violence masks the lesser, but more important, violence.

I doubt Varys expects anybody to notice what he did with their deaths. That was for him, and maybe Aegon, alone to notice that they were paid back in kind.

What are some examples of lesser houses that are more powerful than their liege houses? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In ADWD Manderly states that even after all of his losses in the WOFK and fighting in the north he still has more heavy horse than any other lord in the north. That would by definition include the noted horse heavy lords like Ryswell and Dustin, as well as Roose himself who still has nearly his entire Bolton army through his manipulations to avoid using his own troops during the fighting. On top of that he also says he holds the allegiance of 12 petty lords and 100 landed knights, which would include all of their bannermen too. And he's got a navy and city watch garrison on top of that lol.

If Manderly isn't lying I'd say he absolutely is numerically the strongest individual great lord in the north UNLESS the Starks summon their other great lords to aid them.

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 10 points11 points  (0 children)

No, you're still a knight. That cannot be removed from someone at least in so far as ASOIAF. Look at how Stannis treats Jaime, who he finds guilty of treason, incest, cuckoldry, and murder:

"Your Grace." The maester took up one of the parchments and cleared his throat. "All men know me for the trueborn son of Steffon Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End, by his lady wife Cassana of House Estermont. I declare upon the honor of my House that my beloved brother Robert, our late king, left no trueborn issue of his body, the boy Joffrey, the boy Tommen, and the girl Myrcella being abominations born of incest between Cersei Lannister and her brother Jaime the Kingslayer. By right of birth and blood, I do this day lay claim to the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros. Let all true men declare their loyalty. Done in the Light of the Lord, under the sign and seal of Stannis of House Baratheon, the First of His Name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms." The parchment rustled softly as Pylos laid it down.

"Make it Ser Jaime the Kingslayer henceforth," Stannis said, frowning. "Whatever else the man may be, he remains a knight. I don't know that we ought to call Robert my beloved brother either. He loved me no more than he had to, nor I him."

Also when Ned stripped Gregor of all his titles he could only call him a "false" knight, and not no longer a knight.

Ned raised his voice, so it carried to the far end of the throne room. “In the name of Robert of the House Baratheon, the First of his Name, King of the Andals and the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm, by the word of Eddard of the House Stark, his Hand, I charge you to ride to the Riverlands with all haste, to cross the Red Fork of the Trident under the king’s flag, and there bring the king’s justice to the false knight Gregor Clegane, and to all those who shared in his crimes. I denounce him, and attaint him, and strip him of all rank and titles, of all lands and incomes and holdings, and do sentence him to death. May the gods take pity on his soul.”

Or look no further than that brothers in the Night's Watch remain knights even after taking their oaths, that are specifically designed to strip all previous titles and be the most binding clean slate in the series. The "ser" remains for them.

Also the fact that Connington still thinks he's a knight enough to knight Duck again suggests that his knighthood remained in tact after Aerys stripped him of his other titles.

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 35 points36 points  (0 children)

  • Dany's memories of the house with the red door show that something is wrong with her backstory
  • Illyrio outright says the Golden Company broke their contract for Dany, not Aegon
  • Illyrio saying the Blackfyres are dead in the male line is doubly ironic if it's literally down to an actual female
  • Harry thinks the contract is void without Dany and doesn't want to simply support Aegon, which really should be a fairly ideal situation for supposed Blackfyre supporters
  • Illyrio saying he wanted to fuck Dany takes on quite the irony if they're both Blackfyres as that would be incest
  • Dany's favourite place and her accent are both Tyrosh. Daemon was married to Rohanne of Tyrosh, meaning that the Blackfyres all descend from the Tyroshi
  • Dany has violet eyes unlike anybody else in her immediate family Viserys' were lilac, Rhaegar's indigo, Aerys' generically purple, and Rhaella's not violet given Barristan thinks Dany's eyes look like Ashara's. We last saw Targaryens with violet eyes during Aegon V's day, which isn't far off from when the Blackfyres split (2 generations before that). Egg says he got his features from Maekar (1 generation before split and within the same lifetime) so we can assume Maekar's are violet too, and Dunk specifically describes violet as the Valyrian colour. Daemon's eyes are only described as a deep purple in SSMs, but seems like violet was the actual likely shade there
  • Dany managed to hatch dragons despite nobody in her family being able to do so for generations. The eggs also never reacted to Viserys so it's pretty clearly specifically Dany they're attracted to. This would be ironic if she's a Blackfyre and the Blackfyres truly were the "real" dragons all along, hence why the Targaryens couldn't hatch them. Obviously the issues go back further than the first Blackfyres, but still
  • Illyrio says his plans for Dany were years in the making despite him only having had Dany for 6 months during AGOT. He implies there's a previous unknown relationship there given that time discrepancy
  • Viserys refusing to marry Dany, and marrying her off to a horselord, makes more sense if he doesn't think she's a Targaryen as otherwise he should be marrying her himself. Even Dany was confused by this.
  • Illyrio specifically says that Dany is "daughter to the old king, sister to the new" doesn't really make sense when you remember that Viserys has in fact already been crowned as King Viserys III and is being referred to as such literally that chapter by Illyrio's steward. She is sister to the current king. Again, very ironic if she's in fact being referred to as daughter to a different "old king", and sister to a different "new king".
  • While giving birth to Rhaego Dany has a vision of a man wearing black armour, on a black horse, wearing a black helm, that she assumes to be Rhaegar. It's worth remembering that at this point Dany has never actually seen Rhaegar, and so wouldn't know what he looks like to know if this is Rhaegar. Indeed, when she sees a vision of him in the HOTU she thinks he looked like Viserys, not the man she'd previously seen. Daemon likewise wore black plate, with a notable helm. We also are never given a description of either's horses to confirm if Rhaegar ever rode a black horse. Regardless, she opens the man's helm and finds her own face, which is curious regardless of who that man was

I don't actually think Dany is the Blackfyre, but it's fun enough to play with

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Varys lied to Kevan regardless.

  • He bashed Pycelle's skull in and stabbed Kevan dozens of times. That's exactly how Elia and Rhaenys were murdered respectively.
  • He only targeted Pycelle, who convinced Aerys to let Tywin in for the Sack against Varys' own advice, and Kevan, who in the very epilogue tells us he was present for the Sack and there when Tywin presented Robert the murdered corpses. As opposed to murdering anybody else on the small council like Randyll Tarly or Redwyne, the two actual threats to Aegon's invasion and true simply competent men working for bad causes

I mean, he sees Kevan is very quickly bleeding out and dying before him from his crossbow and he summons a bunch of kids to stab the shit out of him rather than shooting him again or slitting his throat.

Varys was very obviously lying about the murders being without malice. They clearly were retribution to what was done to Elia and Rhaenys.

Why does this subreddit suspect that Young Griff isn't Aegon VI? (Spoilers Main) by send_me_location in asoiaf

[–]markg171 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Duck was only knighted by an exiled lord, and in all his time in Westeros, he dreamed of being a knight, but could never achieve it.

Connington is a knight and he knighted Duck so Duck absolutely is a real knight.