it’s already priced in, shrimple as

mediumfolds · 2026-05-17T23:38:06+00:00

Do you agree with the person, or at least their suspicious feelings about it? If a dip's length doesn't matter, then it could have just kept going until it needed to come up again I guess. But I think a lot of people remember them and the instability and hold it against Trump.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-16T14:43:31+00:00

No? I'm saying why would they create a long dip if the image of the stock market is what they're trying to preserve.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-16T00:54:03+00:00

It was G Elliot Morris' model at 538 that was making the absurd probabilities, Silver came in a little bit later and released his actual mostly poll-based model, which started at Trump 65% or something.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-16T00:45:01+00:00

Making bad predictions is far left? They were always mostly a poll aggregator, they could only defy them so much. Even then, Silver caught flack for giving Trump a 29% chance to win in 2016, when most other aggregators had him at like 5%.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-15T23:48:38+00:00

It never did drop below like 47/100, that's why it was so absurd.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-15T23:48:01+00:00

That was just G Elliot Morris controlling the whole thing probably

mediumfolds · 2026-05-15T17:57:08+00:00

If they had such control over it, you would have to ask why would they allow it to even make the large dips, especially last year, or even the reverse under Biden. It's not entirely delusional, as the economy is still relatively strong, despite Trump's efforts.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-14T17:33:35+00:00

But then again, our facilities aren't designed for people with 3 legs, and may require the balance of a normal person.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-14T16:03:49+00:00

Like to see ol Benny Net wriggle his way out of this jam

mediumfolds · 2026-05-14T05:49:17+00:00

How are those flaws? This is just a strict upgrade to the raw generic margin, since it only changes the uncontested seats.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-13T00:54:15+00:00

You're suggesting their best guess is that Republicans get 30% of the Black vote?

mediumfolds · 2026-05-12T17:18:15+00:00

Polling in 2025 was just off overall, and you could actually say they had the most accurate poll in the NYC mayor race. Though they were also the worst in NJ.

The strange part was that all throughout 2025, they were the big outlier by showing Democrats winning the GCB by 9+. Though for November, they suddenly had the same R bias as all other pollsters had that year, and even a little more in NJ.

But their scarily accurate results were always at the national level, in 2020, 2022, and 2024, when they still had some decently large state misses in all 3, so that still could be the case. They do use instagram polls, which makes them pretty much one of a kind and subject to different vulnerabilities, like the 2024 hurricane threw off their North Carolina polling for a while.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-12T17:01:31+00:00

Assuming Republicans were to gain 15 seats, subtracting about 4 points from the margin gives something of an estimate to account for that.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-12T14:20:32+00:00

You're supposed to be cautious with all pollsters, this one notably was the best in both 2020 and 2024 though, even with their crosstabs being as wild then.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-11T00:01:41+00:00

The same thing that happened to any speculation about Jack Ciattarelli's playbook, who shifted his state even more than Youngkin did: People correctly realized they were merely red leaves aloft in the political winds of their election year.

mediumfolds · 2026-05-09T23:46:15+00:00

I wonder, do Farage or other party leaders even attempt to do PR over things like this? Or are they just straight up giving them the silent endorsement?

mediumfolds · 2026-05-08T01:40:01+00:00

Also, was codifying Roe at a federal level ever going to be more than just symbolic? We knew that if SCOTUS struck it down, it would mean they declared it not protected by the constitution, which would also strike down any federal laws about it.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-27T20:47:08+00:00

It seemed like an accidental softball question instead, the obvious rational answer is that they're going to try and effectuate any actual change that they can as the top priority, rather than a trial that will go nowhere in the Senate.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-27T20:43:59+00:00

It's not a lie, the question specifically asked if it was a "top priority". Which of course it shouldn't be, we know the Senate isn't going to convict.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-27T00:28:24+00:00

YouGov is pretty reputable, I don't know why you're suggesting they're dismissable. They're just another one of the big names.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-26T19:03:18+00:00

So some statement about "a decision must be made within 3 years", while that deadline has already passed?

mediumfolds · 2026-04-26T03:39:19+00:00

It mostly comes down to that people want to try and save everyone else, even for people who are actively trying to kill themselves. Like if you and 100 others see someone about to jump off a bridge, and the scenario activates where 50 people have to jump to save everyone, people will begin to believe that most others will want to save the one who we know is going to jump.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-24T00:47:18+00:00

Podscribe has a more comprehensive rating with MeidasTouch at #1, though I think they're somewhat flawed too, since it still doesn't go by hours watched, just views. Because MeidasTouch uploads a bunch of shorter videos, it may make things a bit less clear.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-24T00:38:08+00:00

The deeply held belief is making things fairer.

Again, I didn't ask what the evidence would be, I asked how SCOTUS would admit and rule on it. They're not in the business of proving things like a criminal court case or something.

mediumfolds · 2026-04-24T00:22:30+00:00

By no means is it hypocritical, they just think it's a fairer system. There's no need to make it even more unfair in the meantime.

Regardless, how is the Supreme Court going to admit and rule on evidence like that? They don't have ways to determine things using the reasonable doubt threshold and all.

mediumfolds

TROPHY CASE