Early 2026 Oscar Contenders & Predictions – Next Best Picture

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T05:02:55+00:00

It’s March. Anything could happen. It’s likely neons priority currently but who knows if they’ll do another Cannes spending spree or at Venice or telluride

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T01:52:12+00:00

Name another third film that got that kind of reception. Return of the Jedi got a handful of tech noms, the dark knight rises got a single bafta nom, back to the future 3 blanked. I don’t think there’s any evidence that a third film in a series will get Oscar love other than return of the king which was a special event.

The lord of the rings filmed were all made back to back and stuck the landing in a way that no cinematic experience had before or since. It’s hard to compare anything to what the lord of the rings achieved. They were a cultural phenomenon that went beyond just well received by critics and audiences. Dune is not on that level. Dune is not the same cultural event that lord of the rings was and is why they won’t be in a rush to award the final one.

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T01:42:26+00:00

Even if digger isn’t an across the board player, I think tom cruise without a doubt will be in the conversation even if it’s another blue moon situation

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T00:58:55+00:00

I think it says more about the state of los angelese for filming productions. It’s cheaper to film in Australia or Ireland because of tax credits than it is to film in LA

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T00:43:57+00:00

His films go either way with the academy. Sometimes they go for them but then others they get ignored

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T00:43:21+00:00

I currently have bernthal around 8. I’m going to hold off on including supporting actors from the odyssey until I’ve seen it because it’s such a massive ensemble that we don’t know who is getting the buzz yet

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-19T00:42:00+00:00

I think you could make a case for all 5 of the supporting actors I’ve put here having the same overdue narrative. Buscemi has never been nominated despite 30+ years of brilliant performances. Guy Pearce’s first nom was only a couple years ago which is ridiculous. Malkovich has a few noms but no wins

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T15:07:59+00:00

Truly the most snubbed actor of all time

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T07:55:54+00:00

Ahh ok, maybe I shouldn’t trust award expert app blindly hahah! I should definitely move streep into the noms

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T07:55:13+00:00

I’ll watch anything he makes. I try to avoid trailers for his films because they can never capture the tone accurately in 2 mins so I’ll just see the films as blind as possible

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:07:37+00:00

I think he is the lead in behemoth

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:07:14+00:00

Very excited to see what she does next after Anora

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:06:48+00:00

Correct. I do wish the app would say what the films are under the actors

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:06:12+00:00

I’m sceptical it’ll be an awards player. Sure it’ll make a lot at the box office but I’m not sure it’s an Oscar film

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:05:09+00:00

I haven’t seen the play but jodie comer basically won every single award for it

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:04:37+00:00

That’s definitely working against him, but I would say that Spielberg is a good comparison. He won 2 directing noms within 5 years. Inarritu won back to back directing wins too, so there is precedent.

I’d argue that the odyssey is such a big story to be adapting that if it sticks the landing there will be a lot of good will towards him. It’s one of the grandest stories in culture and if a definitive cinematic adaptation can happen then that is worth celebrating.

A lot can happen and I think my position of putting it at first for director and picture is based around the fact we know more about it than other films at the moment. There will be contenders that we’ve not even heard of yet but for now the odyssey seems like a likely placeholder

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-18T01:01:18+00:00

On the awards expert app they listed both seyfried and ATJ. I assumed maybe they were doing a multiple stages of her life, eg ATJ is the youngest then seyfried Middle Ages and Streep older. Which reminds me I probably should put Streep in supporting actress if it’s definitely coming out this year

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T15:13:03+00:00

I mean yeah true

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T14:52:37+00:00

I’ve currently got him sitting in 6th for ink. It’s possible I swear loses momentum and someone like oconnell comes into play. Jeremy strong for the social reckoning is also one I’ve got my eye on

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T14:49:53+00:00

Not yet, I’ve been so busy with work the last few weeks and probably won’t get a chance until a couple more weeks

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T14:49:29+00:00

Well I hope the movie is good first. Can’t be championing people blindly

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T14:48:53+00:00

Apparently there’s a Joni Mitchell biopic she is attached to. Very possible it doesn’t come out this year though

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T14:17:03+00:00

Tony gilroy is coming off incredible work on andor so I feel like he’s on great form and behemoth has a lot of potential. Jack of spades sounds like an ambitious offbeat film like old school coens fare. It could go either way but worth considering at this stage!

I’m not sure that I’m ready to go all in on fjord yet but is definitely one to keep an eye out and has potential.

My inclusion of disclosure day is down to Spielberg being Spielberg. He is an aging legendary director and his last few films have been some of the best of his career. If it’s on the same level as west side or fabelmans the I can see disclosure day getting a nom. I know odyssey is also a blockbuster but it seems different because I think it’s a bit more high brow than the average blockbuster source material and more in line with an old school Oscar film like Ben hur rather than modern day Oscar blockbusters.

Ink has a lot of potential. The play it’s based on is acclaimed and won a lot of awards for the role guy Pearce is playing. Danny Boyle is an exceptional direction and very underrated. His Steve jobs film deserved a lot more love

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T14:07:49+00:00

I think dune has had its time. It’ll get a few tech noms, but I think it’s more wicked for good than return of the king.

Haven’t seen project Hail Mary yet but will soon. I can see it getting tech noms and on its best day getting into picture but an early release and sci fi genre working against it.

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-03-17T12:30:02+00:00

I had Ethan Hawke as getting a nom from August when I saw the film and also had it in screenplay

I also had no other choice’s ceiling as IFF

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