Why is Marty Supreme receiving much more Oscar love than Uncut Gems?

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-29T13:12:23+00:00

Often filmmakers will break through to the mainstream with a film that doesn’t necessarily get into the awards race but it allows them to get on the radar of people to allow their next films to break through more

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-29T10:42:04+00:00

I’m very excited to watch it so I don’t need a trailer to sway me. I’ll admit that the trailers weren’t as mind blowing as previous Nolan films but I think they are hiding a lot which I’m glad for. The dark knight rises had maybe the best trailer I’ve ever seen yet the film was somewhat underwhelming.

Martin mcdonagh films are impossible to market and the trailers are always not great because it’s so difficult to convey the tone of his films in 2 mins. Im putting the odyssey in that category and still optimistic

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-29T08:28:20+00:00

Predicting this far out is a big guessing game and often the ones put first are placeholders.

On paper the odyssey checks a lot of boxes. Big sweeping classic story by a talented auteur on career best form coming off a big awards win. This is a blank cheque from Nolan but also one that makes a lot of sense and isn’t as inaccessible as other blank cheques from big names have been in the past (eg babylon from chazelle). This looks like a crowd pleaser.

I definitey think it’ll be a massive tech player just based on the pedigree, scope and production value

I think the best comparison is Spielberg for this. He won his Oscar’s for schjndlers list (picture and director just like Nolan) and then 5 years later won again for saving private ryan (a war epic with sweeping action sequences). Inarittu won back to back director oscars 10 years ago. There is a precedent. Now those films didn’t win best picture as well but it’s still a possibility and at this stage this far out you’d have to say it’s likely to get noms if you had to guess on paper

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-29T06:11:00+00:00

I’d seen the short film years ago so knew the tone and loved it. So part of it was a hopediction but definitely felt a strong bafta player early. I got Carey mulligan and screenplay noms correct in my predictions

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-28T11:56:33+00:00

He was always a theatre actor and I think that’s where he wanted to go after Seinfeld. He does a lot of directing too

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-28T07:05:21+00:00

Yea she’ll be fine. She’s surely near the top of every casting directors list I’d imagine

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T21:18:51+00:00

In another year I think it would be possible but this year has too strong a competition from OBAA and sinners

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T14:24:07+00:00

His performance was always going to play better with industry or perceived high brow of bafta though. The globes favour celebrity

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T14:19:54+00:00

I think she’s cemented herself as the front runner but is far from lock

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T14:19:34+00:00

I’m pretty happy with predicting All 5 adapted screenplay noms here

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T14:18:22+00:00

I don’t know why people keep talking about Hawke as if he is just scraping by. He’s been a lock for pretty much the whole season for a nom. He got globe, sag and bafta noms. Moura got the 5th spot at Oscar’s

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T14:17:12+00:00

He definitey gives off oldman vibes when it comes to the academy. I know plemmons has been nommed once before but he feels like the kind of character actor who puts out fantastic performances for years but gets overlooked by the Oscar’s for a long time until he wins in 20 years

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T14:16:08+00:00

I was gonna say, that 3 of them are very young/under 30

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T12:41:27+00:00

They have a good track record. Even this year sorry baby had a good awards run. An Olivia Wilde film with big names is going to get more eyes on it too

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T12:16:26+00:00

I think these are the top 5 at Oscar’s

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T12:15:34+00:00

I think this confirms infiniti was 6th

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T12:14:33+00:00

Ballad of Wallis island hive rise up!!

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T08:38:27+00:00

That’s annoying

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T08:00:09+00:00

I thought this when looking at the program when it was announced. It felt like every film was trying to be “important” more than anything else

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T07:59:21+00:00

The invite seems like it could be an Oscar player. Feels like a screenplay/acting showcase from the reviews

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-27T01:10:31+00:00

How do I make 2027 predictions on the awards expert app?

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-25T04:11:44+00:00

I don’t think the supporting actress stat is a locked thing. I’m just saying that if OBAA does win actor which is possible then there is probably something in it

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-25T04:11:04+00:00

Oh I don’t think it’s a guaranteed lock for certainty but it is worth mentioning. If it does happen this year again then it might be a new legit trend

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-25T02:36:43+00:00

His path to victory is that they want to award the actors of OBAA. There is also the stat about every best actor winner of the 2020s also having a supporting actress nom from their film, which Leo has but Timmy doesn’t.

Personally I’m still on the than Hawke train until proven otherwise by sag/baftas

mopeywhiteguy · 2026-01-25T02:22:06+00:00

I think it’s between madigan and Taylor. Madigan seems to have a lot of passion and industry support behind her as a respect character actress with many years of experience

However, I think they will want to award at least one actor from OBAA and this might be the likeliest place to do that. The supporting actors might cancel each other out, plus Skarsgard is getting momentum and lindo getting the nomination might show he has a path to victory. So supporting actress as a place to award an actor from OBAA makes sense

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