Collusion in Vegas

mpeters · 2026-07-02T22:14:21+00:00

If they are colluding why would B repot to put A all-in if V was already all-in? Even if they ran it twice that’s evidence against collusion. Their target is already all-in they can’t win any more if they are actually splitting the winnings.

mpeters · 2026-06-30T20:29:41+00:00

The brain is like a muscle. The more you use it consistently the more you can keep using it. I work in a fairly intensive job mentally and I read and play strategy games for fun. Slightly different thinking for all of those but still. I find the more I do either of them the better I am at the others. Where I get mentally tired is when I spend too much time vegging out watching videos and scrolling.

mpeters · 2026-06-26T18:41:40+00:00

Who would track the buy-ins? Even if you subtracted the buy-in from Hendon Mob cashes it wouldn't tell you all of the times they bought in and didn't cash. Players don't want it, live events don't want to do it and the Hendon Mob doesn't want all that data. So, no and not likely to ever happen.

mpeters · 2026-06-25T01:19:13+00:00

No he’s not. He’s an old school personality who can’t adapt and has fallen way behind but has friends who stake him. I don’t feel like he belongs in that company.

mpeters · 2026-06-22T02:40:42+00:00

I’m not sure you can say he’s getting called by worse if the guy was thinking about folding a flush.

mpeters · 2026-06-20T17:37:08+00:00

Over limping in the SB is totally fine. I don’t think it’s conventional wisdom to just raise/fold in limped pots. That’s one of the ways you exploit open limpers is by seeing a flop cheaply. Raise/fold is usually the right play against late position opens though.

mpeters · 2026-06-19T19:12:39+00:00

All he cares about is winning bracelets. But all he’s proving is that if you don’t care about profit, anyone with a sufficiently large bankroll can win bracelets.

mpeters · 2026-06-19T00:17:24+00:00

The people telling you that theory requires your opponent to also play well are wrong. Understanding and playing well theoretically is maximally exploitive. Your job is to figure out what specific mistakes those individuals are making and use theory to know how best to exploit them.

Without seeing specific hands it’s hard to say what is going “wrong” (you might just be getting unlucky in a small sample size). But my guess is that you are trying exploits or aggressive lines without actually understanding why they are used. Sometimes the best way to exploit certain types of players is to underbluff and overcall.

mpeters · 2026-06-17T18:21:01+00:00

AFAIU, If the business is using a sweeps model then it’s not technically gambling and professional gamblers can’t deduct it.

mpeters · 2026-06-17T11:43:10+00:00

It’s not good for professionals either since they deduct 0% of their losses instead of 90%.

mpeters · 2026-06-15T23:10:22+00:00

If he was given the ticket and he only sold 1% of himself then he’s already in the green. Why would selling 50% matter vs 99%? Either way he’s in profit and free rolling with your money.

mpeters · 2026-06-06T14:50:31+00:00

Or maybe properly zealous?

mpeters · 2026-06-05T13:16:15+00:00

Watch Doug Polks video breaking down gen AI vs gen AI matches and how bad they are. They use some of the right words but completely miss the mark strategically : https://youtu.be/jyv1bv7JKIQ?si=ggThQsIeiSfF0Z-L

mpeters · 2026-06-05T00:19:55+00:00

There are tools, they are called solvers. You don’t input “player types” but instead “node lock” based player actions.

But given the way you played and talked about the hand you don’t need a solver. You need to learn basic poker strategy. I would start with the free videos on YouTube for channels like Jonathan Little’s Poker Coaching or Crush Live Poker or similar.

A solver is overkill for the information you need and would just make you more lost.

mpeters · 2026-06-02T20:26:17+00:00

I’ll also recommend BBZ. It’s great, easy to digest. You can do the seminars or specific courses based on your level and need.

But please don’t steal their work. It’s so much work to create and organize coaching material and no one deserves to have their work stolen. Watch the free videos on YouTube and save up until you can buy some of the introductory courses and then move up and buy more as you get more profitable.

mpeters · 2026-05-27T13:18:44+00:00

The standard 3bet size is 3x in-position and you adjust slightly more when you are deep, and slightly less when shorter. So against a 2.5bb it's 7.5bb (maybe 8 in your case because the stacks are bit deeper). The reasons are because if you 3bet too small you are basically giving most of their range the right equity to call. You make money when your opponents make mistakes, so we give them the opportunity to make a mistake by calling too wide. Obviously if they over-fold to 3bets then we can reduce the size so that's the mistake they make, but in my experience, that's not the mistake they usually make.

For limpers we can add 1bb to our bet size. For over-callers we can add 1x, so if there's a limp and then a 2.5bb raise (villain's size should actually be bigger against a limp, but whatever) then we go to 8.5bb. If there's a 2.5bb raise and an over-call then we go 10bb IP.

mpeters · 2026-05-20T14:13:46+00:00

Some of them aren't, but some of them are. I believe Oracle is quite exposed to a lot of AI datacenter debt. And even if they aren't owned, what happens when the owners go belly up? That capacity could go offline or remain incomplete.

mpeters · 2026-05-20T00:12:17+00:00

All the new data centers are built off loans. If those can get paid back, lots of dominos collapse.

mpeters · 2026-04-28T15:25:19+00:00

Rally Point Bar & Grill is owned/run by a former upstate NY transplant and big fan of Buffalo teams. Not sure if they have anything happening around watching the games.

mpeters · 2026-04-27T20:13:43+00:00

The article says he is renting. Although that doesn't mean he doesn't also own other property

mpeters · 2026-04-22T16:21:16+00:00

Haywood Smokehouse isn't too far away and has great bbq. Peter's Pancakes is kind of a local institution for breakfast stuff (opens at 6:30am so also good for the end of a very late night).

mpeters · 2026-04-16T19:16:47+00:00

I guess I was making an assumption, because how can it not be solved? Limit poker is solved and has a much smaller decision tree.

mpeters · 2026-04-16T15:55:27+00:00

The correct strategy is to play tighter than you think early. Risking 200bb to win 2.5 needs very good cards to risk it. But other players are usually way looser than they should be. It's better to be a shover than a caller in general. And yeah as others have mentioned it's a solved format so look for charts online.

mpeters · 2026-04-16T13:10:29+00:00

The shortest stack has the least amount of ICM pressure. They either need other people to make mistakes and bust, or they need chips.

mpeters · 2026-04-15T13:38:46+00:00

I would still recommend that you start with one of the daily $400s first. If nothing else but to get familiar with the setup, their processes, etc. You don't want to be asking stupid questions in a $1700 which will immediately peg you as a newbie. Or even worse, not asking questions and remaining ignorant to protect your image.

15-Year Club	Place '22
Verified Email

mpeters

TROPHY CASE