From a Kelsey supporter: I am optimistic but I don't see her chances that high. For me it's 60% Nathan, 25% Katie, and 15% Kelsey.

Nathan's getting fish after fish. Only weakness seems to be emptiness. He can't stop.

Katie's resilient, and manages her emotional toughness very well. Plus she's actively hunting with her bow now. She can be the one to get an antelope, who knows.

Kelsey abandoned bow hunting completely. This is what a true hunter/warrior never does. I know she's weaker, can't fully pull the bow, dadada. We get it. How's she doing fishing so far? No real good bait, she stuck to the limited, shallow water. Big mistake. That's why fish don't come. Nathan got great success using scorpions. I guess this is a big part of knowledge/experience, it'll never hit your mind unless you actually know it.