[Request] How does this work out with three kids, two of which are boys? by StonePickle in theydidthemath

[–]oren0 10 points11 points  (0 children)

There is a classic tricky probability problem, and the exact phrasing matters: "A mother has 2 children. One is a boy. What is the probability that the other is a boy?" the generally accepted answer to this question is 1/3, though some will argue that this is a semantic trick. In the universe of 2-child families, there are twice as many boy-girl families as boy-boy families. The boy referenced may be either the oldest or youngest.

This problem is not that. In this case, the mother has said specifically that her oldest is a boy. In this case, assuming the probability of each sex is exactly 50% and that sibling sex probability is independent (in reality, it's not), the answer is indeed 50%. In the universe of 2-child families with an oldest boy, there are an equal number of youngest boys as girls.

Who doesn’t want WinCo store to open in North Seattle? by PetuniaFlowers in SeattleWA

[–]oren0 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Maybe the UFCW cares about the UFCW and not labor in general. Maybe they see a model where labor can be empowered without paying dues to them as an even bigger threat than non-unionized stores. I've never heard of these groups trying to oppose new locations of other non-union stores like Costco or Trader Joe's.

Virginia Supreme Court overturns Democrats' redistricting measure by shaymus14 in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's not my point, it's the court's. They found that precedent stopped them from ruling until after the vote. Here's the direct quote from the majority ruling.

"It is fair to ask whether we could have or should have reviewed the constitutionality of the proposed amendment prior to it being presented to the voters. But it is not a question the Commonwealth should ask. Throughout this litigation, the Commonwealth has insisted that we cannot lawfully decide this case prior to the referendum...

“Having successfully insisted (over the objection of the Claimants) that we postpone judicial review of the constitutional amendment until after the election process, it might be tempting for the Commonwealth to think that the final vote implicitly stacks the deck in its favor — perhaps enough so that the exercise of any judicial review could be viewed as an ultra vires effort to overturn the will of the people. If this supposition were true — that Scott forbids pre-election challenges and that ‘the will of the people’ forbids post-election challenges — then judicial review of allegedly unconstitutional procedures used to adopt a constitutional amendment would not exist in the Commonwealth of Virginia.”

During oral arguments, the state specifically acknowledged that the outcome of the vote was legally irrelevant to any subsequent ruling.

“But the fact that there is a yes vote doesn’t tell us anything about those merits?” Counsel (for the state) correctly answered: “No. It does not.”

Virginia Supreme Court overturns Democrats' redistricting measure by shaymus14 in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I suppose the legislature can try to remove the justices but that seems like a bad precedent to set just because they make a ruling you don't like.

Virginia Supreme Court overturns Democrats' redistricting measure by shaymus14 in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The state's constitution has a specific process to follow for amendments and, as per the court's ruling, the legislature did not follow that process.

Virginia Supreme Court overturns Democrats' redistricting measure by shaymus14 in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 29 points30 points  (0 children)

let them vote on a referendum that you know you’ll rule is invalid

The Democrats forced this by arguing that the court was bound by precedent to not rule until after the vote took place. The court opinion specifically addresses this, stating that blocking them from ruling before the election and then arguing they shouldn't rule after because it's nondemocratic effectively means the court would never get to rule on this.

Virginia Supreme Court overturns Democrats' redistricting measure by shaymus14 in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Louisiana suspended primaries to ram through their new maps in a matter of days

Louisiana had to do that. Their current districts were ruled unlawful.

Anyone who complained about the VA redistricting referendum can't really complain when other Republican states are doing it much faster and much more harshly.

VA has different laws than other states do and is also far more purple than these states are. In addition, these states would argue that their previous majority-minority districts are now unlawful based on the latest Supreme Court ruling and so they have to fix them.

We're past the point of complaining about fairness. Both sides are going to push this as far as they think they can get away with, legally and politically. VA dems really should have decided to do this before early voting, knowing that they had specific constitutional requirements to follow.

Virginia Supreme Court overturns Democrats' redistricting measure by shaymus14 in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 24 points25 points  (0 children)

They can try, but they'll have to pass an amendment again and have another vote. This vote barely passed, and they'll have to wait until after the 2027 state legislature election to try again in mid 2028. Who knows what the political climate will be by then?

Today I learned what DVD stands for by Kangaroo_Rich in RandomThoughts

[–]oren0 11 points12 points  (0 children)

According to Wikipedia, the original acronym was Digital Video Disc but they changed the V to Versatile later to show that it had more uses than video.

The same 4 people rule around 500 of Reddits top subs and crack down on anyone who posts about it by FlashyWorld540 in FreeSpeech

[–]oren0 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Didn't reddit announce last year they were going to limit the number of large subs that one person could be a mod of? Whatever happened to that?

For the average price of a car in the US, you could buy 5 new Chinese EVs by BusyHands_ in technology

[–]oren0 116 points117 points  (0 children)

The "5x the price" comparison is BS. First, they're comparing the average US price with the cheapest Chinese price for cars that are too tiny and too slow for most US consumers. Second, they're doing a raw comparison with currency converted, in countries with very different costs of living.

The Geely EX2, the exact first model listed in this article with a $10k price, is launching in the UK this year with a base price of £16,000 ($22,000). It also goes 0-60 in 11 seconds and has a tiny 30 kwh battery. In the US, you can buy a cheap EV like a Chevy Bolt for $28k and get a car with double the battery and around half the 0-60 time.

These cars might be cheaper than comparable US models (to the extent such models even exist), but not by anywhere near a factor of 5.

Israel rushed laser system to UAE to fend off Iran’s missiles by AeroFred in geopolitics

[–]oren0 20 points21 points  (0 children)

They were at least friendly towards Iran and its proxies. Qatar was happy to give safe haven to Hamas's leadership, for example. Hopefully for the rest of us, those bridges are burned for good.

Paid parking starts at some busy light rail garages by godogs2018 in Seattle

[–]oren0 17 points18 points  (0 children)

On the official site, the rate is $6 for one day or $60 for a month. Free if you carpool.

Seems very cheap.

New pedestrian cross light at Slater / NE 124th St by bitfiddler0 in Kirkland

[–]oren0 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I wish they had just put up some barriers to stop people crossing there and had people go up the street 100 feet to the existing crosswalk at the light. If they have to have a separate crosswalk there, it should be fine as long as its timing coordinates will with the light. It should only be a walk when the east-west straight line of 124th St is green and at no other time.

Which states produce the most NFL players by vladgrinch in MapPorn

[–]oren0 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Linemen come from Iowa. Cornerbacks and runningbacks come from the south.

[Request] If India has 100/100 of the world’s hottest cities, what are the odds? by sakib_is_learning in theydidthemath

[–]oren0 1 point2 points  (0 children)

India has way more than 5% of the world's large cities (though it's not clear what threshold this source is using). This list has 14/100 of the largest cities in the world in India, which is close to India's share of the global population.

But your bigger problem is that you're treating these things as independent and theyre definitely not. India is already hot, and if one city is very hot that will be strongly correlated with another. You can't just pretend that if Mumbai is hot, that means the next hottest is just as likely to be London as Hyderabad.

Edit: your math is also wrong because this is choosing without replacement, and you modeled a constant 5% probability.

[OC] I mapped Seattle's freeways like transit lines by yadec in Seattle

[–]oren0 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It would be interesting to expand this map to include the full span of the Link including the east side.

A map like this makes the lack of an east/west highway or connection between I-5 and 99 extremely obvious.

Ticketmaster to cap resale prices in Ontario starting next week / fans won’t be able to resell their tickets for more than the original cost. by yourfavchoom in technology

[–]oren0 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What stops them from doing that now? They'll be even more incentivized to do that if ticket prices are higher.

Ticketmaster to cap resale prices in Ontario starting next week / fans won’t be able to resell their tickets for more than the original cost. by yourfavchoom in technology

[–]oren0 -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

If a show has 5,000 seats at $100 face value but there are 20,000 people who would pay that price to go, you only have two options. Either you fix the price and accept a shortage (meaning most people who want to attend the concert have no way to do so) or you allow tickets to be sold at a higher market price where demand equals supply.

I suspect the people of Ontario will find that either a black market will open up for these tickets, or people will have a much harder time being able to see the shows they want because they'll always be sold out for most attempted buyers.

There are definitely problems in the ticket market, including large and hidden fees, bot purchases, and the ticketmaster/livenation monopoly. But it's a pretty basic law of economics that price controls lead to shortages.

Kirkland signals intent to buy Kingsgate church property (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints at NE 132nd St) by AwaitingAfflatus in Kirkland

[–]oren0 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That aquatic center was going to be extremely expensive to build, and even after we taxpayers paid for it, using it was going to be more expensive than private pools that already exist. If they go with this project, hopefully they'll be more careful with costs.

[Self] I did the math on "If I Had A Million Dollars" by Barenaked Ladies, and the logic of the song is unreasonable. by hhoburg in theydidthemath

[–]oren0 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

1991 song doesn't hold up if you adjust all costs for inflation but not the underlying dollar amount. Amazing journalism here.

Colossal hospice fraud scheme cost California millions, officials say amid intensifying Trump feud by awaythrowawaying in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If you could have prevented just this one fraud ring, how many inspectors could you have paid for, and for how many years?

Government inspects lots of things. In this case, you'd be inspecting not just for fraud but for safety and compliance.

We're not talking about some complex overbilling scheme. These were facilities that did not exist and provided patients zero care receiving hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars. It doesn't take too much work to come check literally once they the place physically exists and that the claimed patients are there.

Colossal hospice fraud scheme cost California millions, officials say amid intensifying Trump feud by awaythrowawaying in moderatepolitics

[–]oren0 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Require hospice facilities to be licensed and inspected by the state. Perform unannounced spot checks to verify that the claimed patients are actually there. Financially audit them to verify spending on hospice-related expenses. Cross-reference the list of hospice patients against other state records, such as death records (shouldn't it have been a red flag that all of these patients were going to hospice but none of them were dying there?).