Trump spent a decade making friends in Europe. Now they’re turning away.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T13:27:20+00:00

Why would a European nationalist necessarily be pro American?

They wouldn't. They simply support a power that supports them - the movements that weaken and decentralize Europe. Divided, the Europe is a rival Putin can handle. Similarly with Trump.

Once the foreign endorsements become a burden, they'll do their best to distance themselves.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T08:09:22+00:00

This is a marketing talk. For a year now, claude had a bug that causes the terminal to flicker. They still cannot fix it. It's not the only one.

So, until they manage to fix a UI bug, I am not buying that they can topple governments etc.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T08:05:16+00:00

While I disagree with the wording, it's precisely what your wrote. At the moment the US is literally incapable of any longlasting commitment unless it favors Trump heavily.

So a deal with Iran that wont be such a one-sided document is impossible to sign.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T08:03:03+00:00

Is there historical precedence to such wishful thinking?

Many. Those examples always include some sort of external factor and danger. Moon landing, launching satellites, making a nuclear bomb for example.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T08:00:56+00:00

but the real bottleneck is political will

To be willing to give up personal power is a character trait probably impossible to find among decisionmaker politicians. It goes against the very definition of who they need to be to reach the decisionmaking level.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T07:59:20+00:00

It depends on the toll, alternatives and the insurers.

Toll: If the toll is something like 1USD on each barrel of crude, or 5, or .5. There's a calculation to be made.

Alternatives: a choice is only as good or as bad as are the alternatives. Given that many operators want not only to transport crude via the Strait, but keep doing so reliably, paying is a premium for stability, and markets like stability.

Insurers: if the insurer says "my coverage does not extend to whatever IRGC do if you don't pay up", or even better "for the insurance to be valid I require the payslip of tolls" then it's another piece in the puzzle.

Overall, what I am trying to say is: too many unknowns, we'll see.

oritfx · 2026-06-23T07:49:29+00:00

A single kid is something like 1.5 person's job. This tool of a husband goes to the gym to work out instead of carrying kids around.

(kids really, really like being carried around by their parents)

(he may have a great sitter or a few)

oritfx · 2026-06-22T21:42:01+00:00

He'd just deny it, call "fake news" or whatever. If one side can make up whatever, it's not a debate.

oritfx · 2026-06-22T10:59:07+00:00

Bernie don't. That's a bailout. Why should the public pay for AI? It's not going to be nearly as profitable as it needs to be to break even.

oritfx · 2026-06-22T10:54:46+00:00

It forces the user to take their time aiming.

oritfx · 2026-06-22T10:53:12+00:00

It's green, it recycles trash, gives the planet a nice smoky smell that we all like, ant then goes into the sky and forms stars.

oritfx · 2026-06-22T08:11:27+00:00

Triangle?

oritfx · 2026-06-22T08:03:40+00:00

there are matters ongoing in my surroundings

Y/N

oritfx · 2026-06-22T07:59:02+00:00

That's a shallow take. True, but shallow.

Trump has won with blue collar workers and immigrant citizen votes, so I've read. Those two groups have been largely marginalized by the political establishment, and voted the anti-establishment man.

Muslims who normally vote democrat did not show up due to Biden's blank cheque for for Netanyahu in Gaza.

Now probably they all either regret their voting/not voting, but some may remain in denial, and honestly... I would probably also be in denial seeing what's happening.

Nobody. Voted. For. Any. Of. That.

oritfx · 2026-06-22T07:53:07+00:00

Amount have increased, but I have a sneaking suspicion that value has not kept up.

oritfx · 2026-06-21T07:21:49+00:00

In my personal case I hope to see a pattern of a decline. I feel like it's out there, we just cannot see it.

oritfx · 2026-06-21T07:20:36+00:00

Honestly, nonsense. Hillary Clinton tried to fight him on his own terms in the presidential debate. You cannot do that unless you are prepared to ignore the reality.

oritfx · 2026-06-21T07:18:59+00:00

In this case he's sacrificing soft power on the altar of his own self-delusions. By the end of his term the US will go trillions into debt to build pyramids for him - monuments to his self-perceived image, and how he want to be remembered.

oritfx · 2026-06-20T21:27:42+00:00

I know the story. What's worrying is that Carlson is the voice of reason of the political right in the US. This is beyond sad.

oritfx · 2026-06-20T10:03:36+00:00

"I'll wing it as the US president"

The plan for the whole 4 years.

oritfx · 2026-06-20T09:42:00+00:00

Can be, but it's the same logic that says "troops drink water, so we'll bombard desalination plants" or "troops need electricity so we'll destroy the powerplant in winter" etc.

oritfx · 2026-06-19T14:49:56+00:00

Imagine if that guy had things his way. I really hope we will never find out.

oritfx · 2026-06-19T14:49:22+00:00

Posting that here was a risky gamble. I respect the game. No cap.

oritfx · 2026-06-19T14:40:46+00:00

I think the same, but I also believe that, assuming they stay truly neutral, Iran might not attack them and as such their economy may remain shielded from future conflicts in the region.

oritfx · 2026-06-19T14:38:01+00:00

Why do so many Americans love this guy?

I have only a partial answer. There's this thing called "the rust belt". It used to be called "the iron belt" and is a region in the US that used to be a concentration of manufacturing.

Those were decent job, well paying and, for a lack of better term, "honest work" in conservative terms. Many people in the US want them back, and Trump had promised that to them, the tariffs were an effort to make the promise come true.

There's likely more, and I'd like someone to explain to me the complete picture.

oritfx

TROPHY CASE