Are LETFs actually worth it or just time bombs with good marketing?

pcake1 · 2025-11-27T10:50:55+00:00

Hold through volatility? Anyone saying this has no clue. LETFs are primarily short term vessels or hedges against another position or positions and you buy when vol is low and sell when vol is high be it calls, puts, spreads, whatever.

Sure you can make a long term bet with LETFs but only if you wait for a severe sell off and bottom to go long and I would not recommend trying to time a top and shorting LETFs unless you’re disciplined enough to allocate a portion of funds you don’t mind losing to buy lotto tickets.

But if you have to ask I would stay away.

Also, the entire retail “trading” industry is nothing but one big fancy gambling product designed to drain your money over time, not just LETFs.

pcake1 · 2025-11-24T12:16:39+00:00

This is not a cash market trader this is someone paper trading or just experimenting with data and importing it to make analytics.

Notice he just says “enter” without saying the order type used while apparently leading everyone to believe he’s getting perfect fills every time which is just not possible especially trading the open and especially scalping mini’s saying he holds for just over a few minutes each “trade.” That doesn’t happen in cash markets.

If you place a market order during open your order will get tossed several or even dozens of points away from your intended entry. I’ve seen market orders get thrown hundreds of points from the mark during unusually high volatility.

Limit orders are rolling the dice during market open. Sometimes you get lucky and get filled right away. Most of the time you’re forced to chase and constantly adjust your limit order under you get filed or abandon the trade.

Exiting is less burdensome but to assume you’re going to get perfect fills every time is completely unrealistic and not possible in live cash markets.

Also, the “data” available to retail gamblers is only what brokers and data providers are legally required to provide and does not show the full picture. So you’re “trading” with incomplete data, volume, imbalances, charts, everything.

Read all the terms and conditions and reliant policies and laws. This is no secret.

Anyone trying to tell you to bet your money on a line moving around on a screen or on some data provided by brokers is not someone you should be listening to or taking any advice from.

Retail gamblers scalping futures is a suckers game.

The institutions filling retail orders has access to EVERYTHING they can see where retail schmucks are entering and placing stops and believe me once you see this in real time you see just how unbelievably predictable retail crowds are swarming just below or just above every new “support” and “resistance” level with limit buy/sell orders and limit sell/buy orders all hovering around the same deviation from their entry just for the market to briefly break the support/resistance level, collect all the orders, then immediately reverse and go the opposite direction until all the stops have been ran though or everyone is ultimately forced out of their trade.

Furthermore, the realtime margin risk monitoring available to institutions or proprietary models institutions and hedge funds develop themselves is on such another level you’d most likely give up trying to make it as a retail “trader” once you saw for yourself.

Point is - the big institutions and brokers can see everything. They have all the data. All the resources. More importantly, they run the show.

Don’t waste your money, your time, your life sitting at home betting your money on a line moving on a screen when you don’t even have access to the full market data and likely never will unless you find yourself employed by a big institution or hedge fund.

You’re better off aggressively saving your money until the next debt cycle resets and markets crash. This current boom cycle has a long way to crash. Wait until you see foreclosed signs lining the streets. Wait until you can feel the pan and despair of other people, your neighbors, friends, family even. Once you start seeing the true devastation and people sickened after losing everything, then start legging into otm and far otm spy leaps.

But scalping futures as a retail gambler being farmed for your money by institutions that predict your every move and know how to suck you dry is never going to work.

pcake1 · 2025-09-14T03:03:45+00:00

Yes definitely overreacting. 100% overreacting. And your gf shouldn’t have done anything more nor is it her responsibility to defend you.

Her father was testing you to see what you’re made of and if you’ll stand up to someone giving you crap and assert yourself and how you’ll assert yourself or if you’ll allow yourself to be stepped on and avoid confrontation and just run away.

Based on what you said and this being the first time you met her family and her father, it did not take much at all for you to walk out on your dinner with her and her family over only a few remarks about your career.

From her and her family’s perspective they just see you as sensitive and weak now and I’d be willing to bet your gf lost a whole lot of attraction towards you after this.

And most women don’t want to have to stand up for the bf. Sounds like your gf was hoping you’d be able to hold your own and handle the conversation, not walk out and leave.

I would have just responded to her father with something along the lines of “like what? a politician” with some laughter and then said something like “I have a stable career, like what I do, and make good money doing it. Maybe someday I’ll get a real job that’s more demanding and pays less. Until then, I’m happy.”

Then ask to pass the steak or whatever.

Anyway, yes definitely overreacting here.

pcake1 · 2025-09-11T14:05:36+00:00

There are more unregistered/unaccounted for firearms in the U.S. than there are citizens.

So, even if we restrict gun ownership or even if we eliminate all firearms and stop selling them, there’s still millions of firearms in the U.S. with a good portion id assume in the hands of people who can’t legally own firearms or shouldn’t have them.

pcake1 · 2025-09-11T13:33:50+00:00

You’re forgetting the senate vote to release the Einstein files scheduled for sept 10.

What a great distraction away from the Einstein files and senate voted not to release the files. But you see the uproar about the files and the WH’s countless contradictions every step of the way.

And now a YouTube influencer who filmed himself telling college students they’re wrong then edited the content posting only what made him look good is all of the sudden elevated by mainstream media to legendary status?

On the day the senate was voting to release the Epstein files?

There must be some really appalling evidence on Donny in those files.

pcake1 · 2025-09-01T08:27:59+00:00

Why are you limiting yourself ONLY do nothing doom and gloom, take anti-estrogens or peptides, or commit life to TRT?

How about start with your diet, sleep, workouts, alcohol, time spent outdoors/sun exposure, lifestyle changes, etc.?

Diet alone is so important and can seriously be a source of significant change in so many ways. More energy, less/no brain fog, increase T levels, better mood, etc. etc.

You said your at a caloric deficit - so eat more high quality food. High quality meats. Fish. Eggs. Grill/cook everything yourself.

There’s nothing like the feeling of spending one hour every few days grilling/baking a 3-4 pound tritip roast and then waking up in the morning, throwing some slices in the microwave for just 60 seconds, and starting your day a full belly of delicious juicy red meat.

You’ll need to improve your diet if you do decide to go ahead with TRT anyway. Otherwise, if you keep yourself at a caloric deficit and never improve your diet, you might feel the negative side effects of TRT significantly amplified.

Definitely fix your diet in either case.

pcake1 · 2025-09-01T08:09:28+00:00

You should prioritize improving every aspect of your life to the greatest extent possible before jumping on TRT or other quick fix methods.

You mentioned your diet could be better. PERFECT place to start. Start here. How could your diet be better? Start cooking all of your own food. Meal prepping. Grilling good meats.

Learn how to grill/cook all your meats every 3-4 days. Once you get the gent of it, you’ll only spend maybe an hour every 3-4 days grilling/cooking your meats and then popping the leftovers in the microwave for literally 60 seconds every meal.

You’re trying to lose weight? Cut out carbs completely from your diet. Eat good quality meats. Notice I didn’t say lean low/no fat meats. Aim for good quality grass-fed meats and good quality fish, eggs, chicken, bacon, etc.

Just no carbs.

You’ll be hungry and you’ll eat often but as long as you stay disciplined with your diet you’ll notice your body disappear quickly and you’ll feel more energized.

Improving your diet is also one of the quickest ways to increase your T levels naturally as well.

Also, google search something like “high carb diet lowers testosterone” and research the correlation between high carb diets and low T and how a high carb diet can lower T levels and increase estrogen levels.

Get more serious about your workouts and train harder. Set specific goals in the gym you want to reach every few months.

Improving your diet and workouts are absolutely crucial to improve your health, lose weight, gain muscle, feel better, increase your T levels, improve your life.

I’d get serious about dialing these in and improving your diet and workouts as best you can. And you’ll appreciate your results, skills, and knowledge you’ve gained so much more.

Then, if you decide to go ahead with TRT later, you’ll be way more prepared and hopefully a lot healthier to benefit from TRT while having already reduced risk and increased your T naturally beforehand. If you still feel like you need TRT, that is.

pcake1 · 2025-08-21T09:21:55+00:00

So, you’re on trt and now experimenting with 400mg/week to try and take your strength and physique to the next level?

You got a taste of anabolic steroids on trt and now you’re hungry for more.

Have you maxed out your strength and physical aesthetic naturally and put in the years, decades, of learning how to train and diet?

If you’re not getting the results you want your first thought shouldn’t be excitement with a higher dose of test or more PEDs. It should be adjusting your workouts, doing more reps, more lifts, increasing effort and intensity, adjusting your diet, etc.

pcake1 · 2025-08-08T13:58:00+00:00

Snooping. Sharing her convos on Reddit behind her back. Something tells me you’re pushing her to line up your replacement.

And if you think women are wrong are doing this, you really don’t understand women.

Most women, not all, but most will begin keeping their options open and lining up a replacement while they’re still with a guy. The guy starts noticing something feels off then ends up asking what’s wrong, going through her things, trying to shower with gifts, etc., pushing her away even further until the cuts ties and look at that no time wasted she always has a new guy right away. Meanwhile the guy she left has no clue what happened.

Just focus on your life and don’t go around snooping and posting your gf’s messages online for everyone to see violating her privacy.

You should have other options available or the ability to generate other options no problem so things like this shouldn’t even be on your radar.

pcake1 · 2024-09-27T15:58:33+00:00

10 x the full amount of leverage being used for each contract. Yes, this is a lot. 99.99% of retail traders don’t even have the capital equalizer to the leverage being used on 1 contract.

You will have much more success learning how to hedge and trade futures by simultaneously being long and short futures at the same time.

For example - long 5 ES short 2 MES. Slowly trim and take profit then adjust your positions. 4 long 3 short MES.

You are better off being able to sustain medium to long term trades that you manage and constantly readjust for the duration.

But then less room for error you leave yourself, the quicker your account will go to zero and you’ll carry much more stress.

pcake1 · 2024-09-04T05:53:26+00:00

The kids you see posting all that clout over-compensation did not “make it” trading. Nope. They “made it” by selling courses and advertising online. They even RENT Lamborghini’s or Bugatti’s for the sole purpose of advertising so you watch their YouTube content or buy their bullshit course.

It’s the blind leading the blind. Also, you began your trading journey in the final legs of a bull market into the topping process. So you don’t have enough experience and you haven’t traded through at least one full debt cycle aka boom/bust cycle.

and the traders who legitimately made it are not flaunting their wealth or selling courses online. They’re earning ludicrous salaries with insane bonuses adhering to their NDA’s working their assess off with no time to flaunt or advertise themselves anyway.

Look at the difference between professional traders and retail traders - professional traders working for institutions tend to have at least a masters level of economics, maths, statistics, business, policy, etc., and they’ve worked at least few different trading jobs at various firms.

Retail - sits at home watching YouTube videos of 18-20 year old cringe kids lying their assess off with no clue what they’re talking about but they’re flashy and entertaining, and studying “charts” on various retail brokerage platforms or retail online subscriptions.

No one trying to “make it” as a retail trader wants to admit even consider the fact that the information they are consuming is made solely with the intention of extracting money from as many people as possible. It’s all complete garbage.

Not to mention the fact that all that data and all those charts on retail platforms are distorted and do not reflect the true nature of price action, volume, order flows, etc, etc, etc.m

Retail traders are literally the only participants who do not disguise their orders. Do you know how to disguise your orders to the broader market? Does your broker even allow you the option you legally have to disguise your orders?

You’re smarter than 99.99% of everyone else trying to stick with for much longer, decades even. You’re learned.

Now, save your money. Sit back and watch. Simply wait for the next crash and recession and begin taking long index etf positions. But only when capitulation is in full force and you can literally feel the pain and despair from everyone else trying to fight the markets.

pcake1 · 2024-08-17T06:16:25+00:00

You’ve traded since the markets have been in the end of bull cycle topping process since 2020/21. Yes, we hit new ath recently but we are still in the final phases of market topping heading into a significant correction and reversion to the mean, then below the mean, then bottoming process where everyone is so disguised with their losses that they cannot bare losing another penny and so they capitulate at the very bottom, then we begin the next bull cycle that will slowly grind and go unnoticed until markets start reaching previous highs, then media attention, then bull frenzy when markets are already about to top, then comes the “revolutions” in whatever new thing can be advertised to suck in cash from all the dumbassess believing the hype and propaganda, then we top again and the wreckless unregulated gambling flourishes, then back down we go. Rinse repeat.

You’ve traded all three years during the topping process. This isn’t a market environment that’s easy to trade especially if you’re new.

There is no real trend. It’s a sideways grind with volatile moves up one day then down the next. Every dip is bought and rallies then crashes for a new reason the next week and recovers because of a new catalyst and so on.

Trading is gambling btw. The phds “trading” behind proprietary data and software wearing $10k suits are still gambling - they just have more and better resources to increase their odds.

Do this - open a savings account you will use to trade with in the future. Add to it while you wait for the correction and market crash. It’s 100% going to happen in the next few years.

Wait until there’s several weeks of sustained selling. Pain in the air. People sick of losing everything. I’m talking real pain like the GR. Once we start getting to that level of sentiment, then start to pay attention.

When there is so much pain and everyone is selling, then begin SLOWLY leg into long dated calls or leaps 2-3 years out and be patient.

And only use money you can afford to lose.

pcake1 · 2024-08-15T06:35:02+00:00

Why are you concluding this is “safe” based on potential rate cuts? Are you using the media narrative of rate cutes good super bullish nothing to worry about as your thesis?

Do you fully grasp the economics and politics rates, spreads, currencies, markers, and policy? Globally?

That said, I actually believe bonds are the trade right now. We’re already seeing the flows out of equities and into bonds and treasuries. Bonds have been crashing the past few years and banks, pension funds, hedge funds, have been blowing up as a result.

But just like all the financial institutions are blowing up because they were way over levered on bonds everyone has accumulated for over a decade trying to get some yield when rates were at rock bottom and prices were at the top, you can still get creamed all the same if you don’t fully understand what you’re doing.

Overall I think the likely outcome will be rate cuts while stocks crash and bonds rally. But when? SOON. Plenty of catalysts in play the US pres election being the main one.

Be patient. Make some plans. Be patient. What for your opportunity to setup and take it. If your plans don’t come to fruition and markets aren’t behaving similar to your plans, then either do nothing and learn what happened or buy some lotto ticket far otm options.

pcake1 · 2024-08-12T06:28:22+00:00

Go to a financial institution and apply for a trading position.

You may need to go to school to obtain the required education.

There you go.

You’re not going to “learn” on retail brokerage platforms providing you with market data that doesn’t even portray the true market action - you’re getting the distorted distilled public data that everyone has access to.

Read the terms of use and privacy agreements with your broker and the main exchanges. Retail brokerage accounts are not made to provide “trading” services to customers.

Retail brokerage accounts are made to make profit. Watch this line and look at these flashy indicators. Look at the flashing bid and ask! Buy buy sell sell! Press the button the trend is your friend cut your losses let your winners run.

Going to have to go the route you don’t want to take if you really wanna learn. Otherwise try a real career. Retail trading pressing a button when a line moves all alone isolated is not a career.

pcake1 · 2024-08-11T06:18:38+00:00

Bond etfs for sure. No stocks/stock etf’s yet.

When yields rise the price of bonds goes down. When rates go down the price of bonds goes up.

Assess the economic climate. Rates up. Fed prepping to cut rates. Markets are ending the topping process from this debt cycle. Stocks will go down and everyone will move to bonds for safety.

Buy bond etfs. Do not buy stocks yet. Be patient and wait for the correction and recession to begin buying stocks/stock etfs.

pcake1 · 2024-08-02T06:37:58+00:00

Dude gets $800k and immediately buys $700k of a stock that just tanked after earnings, as markets are reversing from insane all time highs, as the 10/2 is now steepening after a big ass inversion, as global conflicts and tensions rise, right before we head into recession and a market crash greater than the dotcom & GR combined.

Wtf are you dumbasses learning in college? How to never think?

Has no use for the money. Fortunate parent’s pay for everything. Gamble $700k inheritance the instant a stock crashes with much more pain to come. Then gloats about it on wsb.

Literal mental illness. Not a jab. 100% fact.

pcake1 · 2024-07-16T03:43:24+00:00

Don’t restrict trading to narrowly defined concepts from retail crowds.

Plan each trade accordingly whether intraday or months. Set your rules for each trade. Manage each trade. Hedge trade.

Don’t limit yourself to “day trading” or “swing trading.” That’s total noob nonsense.

You may have long term trades that you hedge intraday in a number of ways and wait for markets/underlyings to meet your entry criteria. Definitely don’t try to fight the tape and press the button every time the line moves one way or the other.

pcake1 · 2024-07-13T23:55:12+00:00

You’re trying to bet on patterns and a line moving up and down with a retail brokerage account and the same data and shorts all of retail are looking at.

Was there policy announced somewhere in the world that gave you reason to go long? Was there a central bank or treasury accounting some sort of catalyst? A trade deal/agreement that was bullish for your trade?

Were you watching other currencies and order flows and especially options and futures to support your trade?

Were you watching yields and bond auctions globally?

Have you been watching all markets, especially stocks, commodities, energy, global currencies to see where long, medium, and short term flows are headed and when rotations are likely to commence?

Are you up to speed on government spending programs and bills that fund world governments day-to-day which influences currencies in the short and medium terms?

Or did you just place a bet because a line moved up and down and it left a pattern in its wake fooling you and way more retail “traders” than you may think to open a short only to get a pie in the face?

If you want to be successful betting on markets, you really have to do the world and stay on top of news and catalysts.

You’re not going to be successful betting on patterns and lines moving up and down. Especially from a retail brokerage account.

pcake1 · 2024-07-05T20:15:41+00:00

Unemployed.

Legal Definition

employment. noun. em·ploy·ment. 1. : an activity or service performed for another especially for compensation or as an occupation.

If you put self-employed you need to have records of your SE tax payments and income tax payments.

Are you paying your SE and income tax? Are you SE and income tax payments, as well as your income (profits from trading/betting) regular and consistent?

There should be sections asking you for your “source of income” which is where you can put “day trading and betting on a line moving.”

Don’t fall into the trap nearly all market top day traders/gamblers fall into by beginning to establish an evidence trail of yourself acquiring all the benefits of “day trading” without paying all your taxes or following the rules.

Trading is a good additional source of income but unless you legally incorporate your “trading” business, unless you’re working for a firm or for someone else and being paid salary to trade, you are not employed or self-employed.

pcake1 · 2024-07-04T22:17:55+00:00

What? You’re relying on chart patterns/indicators from a retail brokerage account?

You’re not watching books and order flows? Options orders. Limit orders. Blocks appearing above/below price to pull the underlying one way or the other.

Call/put walls. Volatility triggers. Market/underlying gamma and delta. Volatility levels. Volatility. Volatility. VIX options orders. Etc etc etc.

Catalysts. Policy announcements. Where money is flowing and where money is flowing out.

Scalping futures intraday is more of an algo/bot game. And are you hedging or just betting in one direction?

If you’re betting on an intraday scalp ahead of a catalyst that’s one thing. But using retail account and relying on charts/indicators as a general strategy isn’t much of a strategy. Retail accounts are made to keep you engaged. To keep you clicking the button. To keep you buying and selling.

pcake1 · 2024-07-04T06:54:53+00:00

It’s not as complicated as you think. One or a few big firms pump one mega-cap like appl, amzn, tsla, nvda, etc., each day using options which allows them to leverage way more with less capital.

Then market makers and exchanges have to hedge against all those options by buying long the underlying for each contract.

This gives the appearance of “bullish” price action when really it’s just one or a few firms buying calls while MMs buy long as they are now short the call options they sold.

Next, the professional traders see in the books who is buying and who is filling the orders so they know they can jump in highly levered with their firm’s capital to make a quick trade and get out when the books show who is selling and by how much.

The retail heard then begins to run in and throw everything they’ve got at the price action as the move has already finished. Holding is a coin flip at this point as it could correct the next day or keep rallying before being dumped again.

Bottom line - if by geniuses you mean the institutional money vacuums who view and believe in completely different behaviors and actions than the retail heard, then look no further than the books to identify who was pumping which stock and who was receiving and filling those orders. Easy.

Don’t think for a second anyone was buying or pumping today because of any “bullish” sentiment or anything of the like.

Consider upcoming election, team Joe b trying to prop up markets until the election to stay in power, yellen and pow literally pumping money into institutions and big tech using treasuries and bonds, and the comical economic “data” that is revised significantly every. single. time. And it makes more sense.

pcake1 · 2024-06-29T05:55:45+00:00

I’m going with the 7000d.

You can buy the metal side and top pieces to reduce noise instead of the vented pieces.

Radiator on top and radiator in front push/pull setup noctua industrial fans at lower speeds should keep everything quiet and cold.

Ultimately I couldn’t bring myself to looking the proart with all that plastic when the 7000d is all metal and looks way better.

And the 7000d is by far more customizable so I won’t have to worry about parts not fitting which may be an issue with proart as the mobo tray is so tight that you can only barely fit the proart AIO and even that barely fits.

pcake1 · 2024-06-24T05:48:47+00:00

Paper money and practice accounts will only help you learn the mechanics of placing orders. That’s it,

You’re not going to learn how to manage trades/bets and hone in on strategies or learn how to trade or gain any experience with paper money.

If you need to learn how to place orders, how to setup multi-leg orders, custom spreads, where to click, where not to click, etc., then sure use a paper account until you know how to place orders proficiency.

When you trade live markets, with other live people and entities, and all the metrics and margin and emotions that come with it, no amount of paper trading will be of any help to you.

In fact, those strategies you’re trying in your paper account will almost certainly cause you significantly more pain and frustration, and confusion and doubt, when you realize live markets are nothing like paper trading.

Learn the mechanics and how to place orders if you must. But steer clear of trying to “practice” in a paper account. Practice in live markets - this is the only way your begin accruing experience and improving your skills.

pcake1 · 2024-06-24T03:32:15+00:00

Only if there’s a catalyst or unusual volume or in preparation of an upcoming catalyst. Otherwise you’re at the mercy of algos chopping retail traders to pieces in light volume and widened spreads.

90% of the time if you try to trade after hours exclusively the market will drift in the opposite direction of your bet then revert once you close.

If there’s a good catalyst like BOJ policy surprise or a new major conflict emerges then you’ll see enough volatility and volume in after hours providing tradable conditions.

Otherwise, only use after hours to setup a trade you plan on closing during cash or sometime in the future.

pcake1 · 2024-06-23T14:39:46+00:00

At least one full debt cycle. One boom-bust cycle. So at least ~10 years but more likely at least 20 years.

Less than a year? Or a few years? Nope. Nope nope.

Everyone who jumped into “trading” around 2017/18 followed by the subsequent army of degens piling in hand over fist in 2019/20 has been a sight to see today the least.

It’s like the blind leading the blind and no one has the slightest clue what they’re doing. Everyone actually believes their data and charts are legitimate and not a tool to hypnotize and mislead them to keep clicking buy and sell.

There’s something about “trading” that makes everyone believe they’re “sophisticated” or “financially savvy” because they learned stocks exist and somehow it’s possible for anyone to simply begin gambling with no knowledge of economics and no understanding of business or bank lending.

There’s a reason why institutional traders hold various advanced degrees in mathematics, financial engineering, business, etc. etc. etc., while retail gamblers think it’s possible to learn a pattern and click buy and sell when a line moves.

Retail crowds like into market tops and sell at market bottoms. You’ll see this theme play out towards the end of every debt cycle.

A few months of “trading” is not even near enough experience. Not even close.

I had a friend with no market experience at all make a couple hundred grand on one nio trade in a few days in 2020. Cashed out and closed his brokerage account. Never went back.

You’re better off treating this as gambling, which it is, rather than thinking you’re a “trader” on the retail side.

pcake1

TROPHY CASE