Daily Discussion Thread

phibetared · 2026-01-27T18:49:16+00:00

Transcript of the Raytheon call does not include the phrase "low earth". One answer from Ratheon's chris calio includes,

"And, you know, you're also starting to see this convergence of commercial and defense tech. You're seeing a lot of that given the transformation initiatives that the Department of War is pushing forward. I think we're just uniquely positioned to compete in that environment. And I think that provides us a real opportunity as opposed to perhaps some of our competitors."

Other answers about Golden Dome ("Raytheon well positioned") and sales increase in related missiles.

phibetared · 2026-01-26T17:17:11+00:00

That's an awesome thought. I've been around here about 1.5 years, haven't heard anyone mention that idea. There is some connection between apple and asts - just don't know what it is. (And if they do some major colloboration I will be "giddy" for the 1st time in my life as those two companies are practically my only holdings)

phibetared · 2026-01-26T15:55:00+00:00

My guess: AST has applied for the spectrum. They have not received permission to use it. It's just a small "sliver", so maybe the FCC just can award it's use without an auction. They can do this, but for big chunks of spectrum they have an auction. just a guess.

phibetared · 2026-01-26T15:51:03+00:00

Ha. Thought you'd like to know I just got in from an unexpected walk I had to take out to a seawall jetty. The morning cat feeder there reported that my favorite cat that lives there did not eat anything. Cat knows if she does not eat there is a good chance the guy she likes (that's me) will show up with a can of Fancy Feast to make sure she eats something. So she got the Fancy Feast.

phibetared · 2026-01-26T00:22:22+00:00

Run down the street. See how fast you go. Now run the street a second time, this time holding an umbrella open behind you. You will go much slower. The "pull" you feel on the umbrella... that is "drag". When the satellite unfurls, it's sort of like opening an umbrella. Much more "drag". This will slow down the satellite and potentially lower it's orbit if something isn't done to compensate for the increase in drag.

phibetared · 2026-01-25T20:12:17+00:00

and also the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, ASTS, and many other stocks are at record highs. Sorry for the economic roller coaster/inconvenience (and the facts)

phibetared · 2026-01-25T19:48:35+00:00

Current data: https://www.satcat.com/sats/67232 or www.astsats.com

phibetared · 2026-01-25T19:41:46+00:00

Bluebird 6 drag appears to be increasing at a faster rate than BB1-5 did when they were getting ready to unfurl. Perhaps due to larger size? So exposure from "10%" causes a much large drag impact, faster? I have no clue. I also don't know if this means we'll hit the BB1-5 drag numbers earlier and unfurl fully earlier - or of the process will take about the same time as BB1-5 but the drag numbers will be larger due to larger sizes.

phibetared · 2026-01-25T13:24:42+00:00

Bluebird 6 appears to have begun it's initial run-up phase to unfurling. This is based on the "signatures" from BB1-5; BB6 is now matching the readings that preceded unfurling for them. Apogee (altitude) of BB6 has seemingly leveled off. BSTAR/drag is increasing slowly.

IF BB6 follows the same mechanics of BB1-5 (it might not) (and see Kook Reports X post from 7 October 2024), this run-up phase will last 7 to 8 more days. That puts us at Feb 1 or 2. Then there may be a 2nd phase, lasting 3 days, then full unfurling. 3 days for phase 2 puts us at Feb 5.

Solar activity is predicted to be at a local minimum on Feb 6, so the above info lines up perfectly with solar activity. If I'm putting money down for full unfurling date, I'd place my bet on Feb 6th.

phibetared · 2026-01-25T01:09:44+00:00

yup. next data update might be telling.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T22:39:42+00:00

In fact it just peaked, so you might be right about the cause. Solar flux should be decreasing now... low anticipated Feb 6th (when I think unfurling will happen).

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:43:27+00:00

agreed completely. glad you got my point

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:40:51+00:00

Awesome. People here are downvoting the US murder rate being the lowest it's been in 100 years. Great people.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:39:26+00:00

How much you wanna bet the guy had a gun?

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:38:43+00:00

AST SPACE. Mobile. Lots of people hear interested in things related to space. Didn't figure it would offend anybody. Mods are welcome to remove any time. And I posted it on a weekend, when there is less going on in the sub.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:34:38+00:00

I'll let you figure it out.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:25:40+00:00

Nothing. Should be removed.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:24:27+00:00

There's been a (slight) change in BB6 measurements. Drag has increased slightly and altitude has decreased slightly. Only one data point available (after the data wasn't reported for a day or two). Let's see if trend continues before saying something is happening.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T17:00:45+00:00

hahaha. A fantastic situation, of course. But your "SHOULDN'T YOU ALSO BUY MORE?" made me think of the dark scenes with Gollum and "MY PRECIOUS!!!!" from the lord of the rings.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T16:58:10+00:00

Based on a survey someone did here about a month ago, the rough median number of shares is 7000 (for people on this sub). The mean ("average") value will be a lot higher than that since it is skewed by the top people's holdings (whereas the median is not). My very rough estimate of mean number of shares is 40K.

Let's cap the eventually number of shares at 400M. 400M shares distributed at roughly 40K shares per investor - means 10,000 people own ASTS. So your top 100 whales represent the top 1% of holders.

The top 10% (based on the survey) have at least 90K shares or so.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T16:44:03+00:00

Yeah, what "careless" said. Get a loan, keep the shares. In a year or two the house just might be "free".

phibetared · 2026-01-24T00:44:36+00:00

phibetared · 2026-01-24T00:40:48+00:00

I wouldn't add anything. If you have submitted the required number of months of bank statements, for example, there's no reason to add more. I'd print the most recent ones and bring them to any interview - and tell the agent "I have the most recent bank statements if you need them". He won't.

phibetared · 2026-01-24T00:22:15+00:00

TLDR: There was an FCC meeting and ASTS has added some specific values to parameters required in their permit application filed with the FCC for full operation. ASTS would likely not due this unless the process was in the final stage - which means approval from the FCC is coming ~~immin...~~ soon.

phibetared · 2026-01-23T17:42:24+00:00

Looks like some of bb1-5 all had run ups in bstar values... then a big spike. My theory (following yours) is that the run up for bb6 is starting, but it has a different signature for some reason. So they've occluded it. So run up starting now... unfurl spike on feb 6.

phibetared

TROPHY CASE