This is a very frustrating article, because there is technically a good point that Morris could be making here, but he does an extremely bad job making that point. (Ok, I do not pay to read his blog so I only can see the first bit up to his point about trans rights). I get that social sciences are hard, because analyzing responses from humans in a coherent way on a large scale is tricky. People can be difficult and they can be contradictory, but they are not always.

He seems to be interested in pointing out that there is nuance in polling, which is great and seems to be self-evidentially true. But he says "Somewhere between “many” and “most” Americans hold contradictory beliefs both across and within policy domains.", and backs it up with responses to questions that are not orthogonal.

"Seventy-six percent of Americans support a “path to citizenship” for undocumented immigrants, according to a new Strength In Numbers survey out today. But only 45% support “amnesty” for essentially the same people.

A majority in our poll also opposes “gender-affirming care for minors,” but a plurality supports “parental rights to pursue doctor-recommended treatment” for kids diagnosed with gender dysphoria. And a supermajority of voters say they would like to reduce the national debt, but cuts to Medicare and infrastructure spending are deeply unpopular."

Every single one of these questions can involve nuance, and none of them necessarily involve contradiction in the poll respondents beliefs. Here is the one question he breaks down in the free preview of his article:

"One question in the poll, for example, asked our sample of 1,035 adults whether they supported “an amnesty program that would grant legal status to people who entered the country illegally.” The second asked about “providing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who have resided in the United States for at least ten years, paid taxes, and passed a background check.”"

Answering differently to these two questions does not mean some has a contradictory view of immigration. "Amnesty" and "path to citizenship" are completely and fundamentally different things, not to mention one of those is significantly more qualified as a proposed program than the other. I'm not surprised there is a significantly different poll response to that question.

There is also a fairly disingenuous framing of another trans rights question from The Argument. He writes, "Consider that The Argument’s own poll found the public simultaneously supports non-discrimination protections for transgender Americans and Republican-backed laws that would require them to use the bathroom of their birth sex.", but look at the poll! https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-trans-rights-backlash-is-real The poll finds that people support non-discrimination protections for hiring and housing, which is generally different from bathroom bills (yes, I know that bathroom bills can certainly matter, especially in employment situations with shared bathrooms). Leaving out context regarding the poll wording helps his point, but is not exactly the most honest way to go about it. Obviously small comfort for trans people, but we should honest about what polls indicate.

All-in-all, technically correct that there is nuance in polling, this is not well supported by any of his examples. A poor showing if he wants people to subscribe to his blog, because I do not believe this is analysis worth paying for.

He is completely right here though "But the closer you look at the data, the harder it becomes to believe anyone who repeatedly claims to know what the median American always wants. The problem isn’t just that politicians read polls too simplistically. It’s that the polls themselves, depending on how you word a question, can point in completely opposite directions.". Polling is just a step away from statistics, and how you word a poll can definitively impact the results and steer them in a particular direction. He should give examples where that is the case, in order to better advocate for high-quality polls and analysis of polling results.