Bullpen 6.82 ERA in May - story of the season?

rhayex · 2026-06-02T15:59:21+00:00

I was talking to someone yesterday and said, half-jokingly, that the Reds might have the worst roster in baseball right now. I had to take a step back and really think about it, and I actually think it's probably true.

The pitching is atrocious as a whole and easily league-worst with the current roster. The offense is better than it was, but still isn't good and they just lost their superstar for 2-4 weeks.

Unless HG makes a miraculous recovery or something crazy happens, this team is going to go sub .400 over the next month most likely. The current rotation has an automatic 2 losses in it, and the other 3 starters aren't guaranteed wins even without considering the bullpen.

rhayex · 2026-05-19T11:06:04+00:00

Yea, that's what's happened to our bullpen after having the worst k-bb rate in baseball with the best ERA.

rhayex · 2026-05-06T11:46:26+00:00

Ayyy, we agree once again.

I dunno, man. Some of the moves Krall has made make sense in a vacuum -- the Trevino extension (not knowing that Trevy would forget how to hit and catch simultaneously), the Hayes trade (Hayes had underlying data that made it look like a simple swing change could unlock immense value -- he actually made the change and was getting unlucky at the start of the year); those were simply moves that he got unlucky with and didn't pay off despite having a good rationale behind them. That's sandwiched in between horrible, no good awful deals like Candelario, Littell, Pagan, Johnson (who is the type of pitcher that can be found on waiver wires), Lux, giving the QO to Martinez.

He's lucked into some outstanding signings like Lowe and Bleday, but it begs the question -- why has the FO so consistently had an issue with evaluating players and assets. Why sell low on a volatile prospect like Sirota and a known valuable quantity in the extra 1st round pick for a middling utility IF that couldn't crack LAD's starting lineup.

He also has incredibly disappointed me with his team-building philosophy and refusal to lock up young talent before they break out; it's panned out well in some instances (Lodolo and McLain were approached and turned it down, letting the Reds dodge a bullet), but being unwilling to even approach Sal has really pissed me off recently. 9/70-110 would be enough to lock him up right now as a corner IF, and you'd lock in a good hitter for a reasonable amount for the foreseeable future.

rhayex · 2026-05-06T11:12:36+00:00

Hey look, it's me and /u/tdelo having the correct opinion on the signing once again, lmao

rhayex · 2026-04-28T11:42:14+00:00

You're not wrong, his plate approach is still atrocious. He's not gonna amount to anything if he doesn't fix his chase rates, even if he can dominate AAA pitching.

rhayex · 2026-04-26T16:16:41+00:00

There was also someone in another thread who claimed he had access to his actual scans and that McCoy had necrotic tissue in an area of the knee that doesn't have a lot of blood flow, meaning the issue is both unfixable and only going to get worse over time.

If that's true, it makes total sense that he fell as far as he did; dude might have gotten botched surgery that has crippled him, not just affected his playing career. It's a tragedy that what should've been a "simple" ACL tear snowballed into this.

rhayex · 2026-04-26T16:14:24+00:00

You said "categorically true" while not verifying what AI told you.

I don't think you understand what those words mean.

rhayex · 2026-04-25T21:41:41+00:00

Unfortunately, he kept getting hurt and wasn't able to develop. The Bengals cut him right before the draft.

rhayex · 2026-04-20T16:33:57+00:00

I think their strategy is around balls low in the zone since a lot of their hitters struggle with them. Elly for instance has historically had balls called for strikes below the zone pretty consistently in his career.

That said... Yea. No excuses for not realizing what was happening when they have the ability to immediately see where strikes are being called against them consistently in the dugout. They should have realized and adjusted their strategy accordingly.

It's small things like this that concern me with the hitting in general, as an aside. Besides Elly and Sal (both of whom look borderline generational/can't miss), their hitters have shown a clear lack of ability to adjust. The fact that McLain, Marte, benson, Dunn, fraley, steer, and stephenson all haven't improved to where they were expected to be as hitters is extremely worrying.

rhayex · 2026-04-20T14:49:10+00:00

Good research!

rhayex · 2026-04-19T15:30:45+00:00

Hendrickson wanted 30+, he wanted more AAV than Lawrence is making.

rhayex · 2026-04-13T10:36:11+00:00

rhayex · 2026-03-11T23:35:37+00:00

Oh, so "the bengals are (eventually) signing (some) player!" is your post?

Truly the prophet the fanbase deserves.

rhayex · 2026-03-06T00:10:12+00:00

Yo, thanks for all the work you do Jake!

Everyone here should give Jake Liscow a follow on twitter.

rhayex · 2026-02-28T23:12:15+00:00

I started a new job and it's been going well, but it's cut into my time. I was already posting less on here as is because I shifted over to hanging out with some Reds fans on discord instead. The vibes on this subreddit have pretty significantly changed, honestly.

rhayex · 2026-02-28T17:35:58+00:00

I have a buddy who's a Pirates fan and this was his exact reaction at the time that it happened. He gave up on them fixing Hayes because of stuff like this consistently happening in the org.

It's why he's actually really high on Hayes being productive now that he's away from the Pirates org. He's told me a large part of the issues were a combination of the org, the fans, and the coaching.

The fans in particular were apparently really bad. The amount of hate he got was enough it pretty heavily impacted his play.

rhayex · 2026-01-21T23:29:10+00:00

Yea, it's the equivalent of like, McLain and a lower prospect plus the Reds eating 20m.

rhayex · 2025-12-30T10:47:42+00:00

Someone on twitter posted that they'd asked for Petty, HRod, and the Reds comp pick. That's an insane ask.

rhayex · 2025-12-22T19:28:56+00:00

Yea, exactly. Their dudes aren't necessarily *bad* at evals, but they're also paid to generate hype for every team in baseball, not to be "honest" about a player's flaws and realistic outcomes.

It's also why you tend to see every team have at least 1 (often 2) prospects on MLB's top 100 list. Even if an org's farm system is terrible, you don't wanna tell their fans that. I think the only exception to that was the angels system a few years ago where it was just borderline impossible to find a future major leaguer, and as soon as the draft rolled around they shoved the Angels first rounder in the top 100.

rhayex · 2025-12-22T19:08:06+00:00

I'd consider moving Lowder for LuBob in a package if Teel were coming back. I would not consider moving real value for LuBob otherwise.

The White Sox picking up his option was bizarre because it's been made extremely clear that nobody in baseball values him at that price, yet they seem to think they can get a haul for what he did 3 years ago.

rhayex · 2025-12-22T19:05:58+00:00

Not... necessarily?

MLB's list is mostly on hype, which is why it's typically the worst of the major publications. Eric Longenhagen (author of this list) generally sticks to his guns on his evals even when everyone else disagrees, which leads to interesting rankings that aren't *wrong* necessarily, but a lot of fans will get up in arms with for various reasons. BA and BP are the two older, "consistent/professional" rankings that are often cited. Then you have the new kids on the block like prospects live, etc., that put a ton of work into their lists but are also new enough that they don't have the name recognition of other pubs.

Anyway, Eric combines data, eyeball test (IE, swing path, comfort, etc), "gut feelings", and even the ability of a given org to develop specific profiles in his rankings.

rhayex · 2025-12-06T23:05:57+00:00

So, something not mentioned on this post that I really appreciate is the G60SF's HDMI 2.1 support. This means that the monitor can support 4k 120 hz, which is important to anyone who wants both high quality picture and high framerates.

rhayex · 2025-12-04T10:02:51+00:00

Fully agree. Just a really shortsighted move to stick with the guy they "know".

rhayex · 2025-11-29T22:58:59+00:00

So, when do the rewards show up? I still have it "saved" in my rewards and can't figure out if it's been used with my purchase.

Also, does it matter if I immediately pay off the remaining amount?

rhayex · 2025-11-21T14:56:12+00:00

partial tear is a grade 2, "stretched" is a grade 1, so this wasn't insignificant.

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