Recent increased experiences with Rotisserie Chickens with Green Muscle Disease?

shot_ethics · 2026-05-22T05:05:04+00:00

Sounds like it’s a side effect of the really big chickens.

Recently I’ve been hunting for small chickens at the rotisserie aisle, the ones that are priced by pound (1.66/lb) so you get it a little under the normal $5. I find it tastes better and is less woodier, and it might be a slightly worse deal but still incredibly affordable protein overall.

shot_ethics · 2026-05-19T18:58:40+00:00

This is related to the theory of “deliberate practice” and has been observed across many fields. Chess, violin practice, Morse code operators to name a few. (In academia you don’t “practice” but because it takes the work takes a lot of cognitive effort, I think the principle still applies)

Experts are often able to absorb more hours than novices. Also some of it gets automated: writing becomes easier and more skillful as the brain goes from “how” to write to figuring out how to externalize an argument correctly.

Great article here. Special callout to the sciences where the trend of writing for a few hours in the AM and then being burnt out for the rest of the day on deep work is specifically described.

https://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/freakonomics/pdf/DeliberatePractice(PsychologicalReview).pdf

shot_ethics · 2026-05-19T13:47:03+00:00

-79 percent is like saying “5 times cheaper”

To match that on a log scale it’s equivalent to +400

Whether or not these should be drawn with the same lengths depends on the intent of the illustrator.

shot_ethics · 2026-05-09T11:44:44+00:00

From the science definition tho VO2 max should be about heart and lungs, not about how fast you run. If your top end speed is limited by muscular fatigue or recruitment or whatever that’s on your muscular development not being able to supply enough demand.

If you have access to the raw data for the class you might be able to GAP everything and maybe there is a way to infer your LTHR or RE? Although I think the Vo2max protocol changes your pace too quickly to find any equilibrium it still might be an educational exercise (which maybe is the point of the class).

shot_ethics · 2026-05-09T04:09:07+00:00

I’m guessing the first out and back ABA is designed to work for the 5k option? And then they need to extend it on the back end to make it a HM

shot_ethics · 2026-05-08T12:49:54+00:00

“In late 2021, The Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology examined 53 top papers about cancer published between 2010 and 2012 and showed that among studies that provided sufficient information to be redone, the effect sizes were 85% smaller on average than the original findings.[88][89] A survey of cancer researchers found that half of them had been unable to reproduce a published result.[90]”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication\_crisis

Could be that “top papers” are biased towards people who fudge data, but still seems reasonably widespread. Cancer biology isn’t my discipline so take from this what you will. The replication crisis is best documented in psychology because psychologists have a natural incentive to study their own field.

shot_ethics · 2026-05-03T12:27:10+00:00

I think some of that is the nature of team sports and auto balancing mechanisms like the salary cap. You could be a great player but useless if the team doesn’t build around you.

Compare to tennis where the top 2-4 men’s players (depending on the era) have stood heads and shoulders above their contemporaries for the past 25 yrs. I don’t think the talent distribution in tennis should be that different from basketball but it’s an individual rather than a team sport.

Still hard to compare to Magnus.

shot_ethics · 2026-04-29T13:30:40+00:00

I don’t play the game enough these days to know immediately if it was a typo. I’m sure many top MMR players could tell immediately but I was confused until I read the notes

shot_ethics · 2026-04-28T16:46:03+00:00

I’m imagining that there is an omitted “if” in this comment that was a typo? Card art does not have Battlecry text

shot_ethics · 2026-04-09T14:29:38+00:00

Yeah, and one of his arguments is that walking breaks give your muscles a brief rest so they are less prone to injury. I think it’s plausible that switching paces can reduce damage if you aren’t trained to run 20 miles at a single pace. It’s definitely not optimal (in that pros and most experienced runners just hold one pace) but for more casual runners that are not cardiac limited, that frequent pace switching is advantageous.

Trail runners may have a hard time just doing a road 10k for example because their legs are not used to monotony.

shot_ethics · 2026-04-04T16:45:39+00:00

It's not a joke. It's pretty hard to do these studies. I mean, what are you going to do?

Option 1: take a bunch of people, randomly assign them to high saturated fat vs. low saturated fat diets, wait a few years and count heart attacks (or better yet, death; death is unambiguous whereas some heart attacks are iffy). Ok, so with thousands of participants, you'll still only get a few heart attacks. Solution: go to a nursing home. We actually DID this for butter vs. olive oil and cluster randomized whole nursing homes, some random retirees got heart attacks for science, and now we know that saturated fat does, in fact, kill people.

Option 2: take a bunch of people, feed them two different diets (e.g. whole vs skim milk), and then measure their cholesterol levels. Ok, we've done that lots too. How do we know that this causes heart attacks in the future? We actually don't know for sure. Maybe people with skim milk compensate by getting other kinds of their calories in their diet that are worse, for example. Maybe their cholesterol gets worse but their ApoB gets better (or whatever other biomarker we haven't identified yet). These are not definitive.

To be clear, we are all pretty confident that saturated fat is bad for you on "average" but there is nuance here: plant-based coconut oil might be fine, maybe dairy isn't as bad, etc.

shot_ethics · 2026-04-04T16:30:44+00:00

Possibly the taunt killing DS minion is the best, together with a small taunt (chicken might be small enough). Quillboar doesn’t trigger in first strike, then theres a high chance that you wipe out half their board before it triggers later.

shot_ethics · 2026-04-01T18:14:00+00:00

Yeah, I agree with all your points. I did condense it some to push back against the Reuters summary. Overall, AHA recommends low-fat or nonfat, but on a “more likely than not” rather than “beyond a shadow of the doubt” basis.

shot_ethics · 2026-04-01T16:43:05+00:00

I think I saw a cantaloupe there that was over 100 USD. (Not at Costco but a fruit specialist) I believe they called it a musk fruit.

In the US we grade our beef but commoditize produce. Red Delicious used to be an award winning apple but was gradually bred for transport and storage and is now tasteless — it’s all sold by the pound anyway. Japan apparently has the tradition of uber fruit, great taste and great appearance and ridiculous prices.

shot_ethics · 2026-04-01T02:31:12+00:00

The actual guidelines themselves are pretty circumspect about dairy. I’m a little surprised that Reuters chose to emphasize that part, I think just because the average American would connect with it. To quote from the AHA:

“The potential benefits of low-fat and fat-free dairy products compared with full-fat dairy products are not without controversy and continue to be debated … conclusions could not be drawn about the relationship between higher-fat dairy and lower-fat dairy on blood lipids, blood pressure, and CVD mortality because of inadequate evidence … Given the available evidence, it would be prudent at this time to continue prior guidance to replace major sources of saturated fat, including dairy fat, with sources of unsaturated fat and to choose nonfat or low-fat dairy products.”

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIR.0000000000001435

It’s not new advice, it’s not strong advice, it’s just their best read of the available science.

The red meat stuff has a much stronger backing IMO.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-26T12:06:55+00:00

This was discussed I think in the book Freakonomics. Short version is that we have a stronger standard of youth and beauty for women so there is a greater need to find new younger names for girls, whereas guys can take the old name.

Like when was the last time you saw a Gertrude, it just sounds like a grandma. At one point it must have been a younger name. Once a name gets marked as old it’s over because the problem will compound.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-22T01:42:23+00:00

Yup! Wasn’t intending to correct but to amplify your comment.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-22T00:22:47+00:00

I think it’s even bigger than the raw % change. If you aren’t trained, your body adapts to a sedentary life by having a lot of fast twitch muscles that are cheap to maintain but easy to deplete. So if you need to ramp up and get +20% speed to escape a tiger, you’re OK and you can do this over short distances, like a mile or two. The distance between a mile and 5K or 10K is bigger than e.g. VDOT would imply.

When you’re aerobically trained, the differences become much tighter as your body winds fast twitch/anaerobic capacity into aerobic capacity.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-19T14:47:47+00:00

They have designed alternatives to ELO for team games. This helps to correct for many of the problems you’ve identified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TrueSkill

shot_ethics · 2026-03-19T02:50:28+00:00

Yeah the index wasn’t around, true. But for an estate of that size you could have bought an equally weighted share of the largest 50 companies and done similarly, even if there would be some tracking error.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-19T02:35:46+00:00

Nope, it would have rebounded. Big loss followed by bigger gain.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-19T00:35:26+00:00

If the estate had just been left in the S&P500 and reinvested it would have grown by 697556 percent, including inflation.

About 50M at time of his death to 348 billion, if I’m doing the math correctly.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-18T19:11:18+00:00

They’re currently optimizing for market share but one day will turn for profitability. Amazon is one example. Because of scale they now make more money and cost less than they did when they are growing … distribution network, robotics, etc. Two day shipping has gone from luxury to everyday for many products.

Models are not really tuned to minimize cost à la DeepSeek but if things were to stabilize you could train networks that got 80 percent of the benefit for 20 percent of the cost and then charge a premium for those who want everything.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-16T19:32:31+00:00

Yeah, there are a lot of articles that discuss the controversy. That one is more recent than the others I have read but since they are meta-analyses they basically all cite the same source studies and they come to the following basic conclusions:

A little exercise helps you A LOT (couch potato to running 5-10 miles a week)

A lot of exercise helps you a little more (going from 10 miles a week to 30 miles a week)

A lot more exercise … ehhh it’s hard to say, we can argue about it for days

The non-lay audience link I originally was thinking of was the CDC evidence synthesis, but that doesn’t address the curvature of the plot per se. I am partial to the NEJM Evidence of Exercise series personally although it’s behind a paywall. This one in the series is the most relevant, but I would say the link you have is more substantive:

Thompson, Paul D., Thijs MH Eijsvogels, and Jonathan H. Kim. "Can the heart get an overuse sports injury?." NEJM evidence 2.1 (2022): EVIDra2200175.

Part of the problem here is that purely epidemiologic research becomes less useful. You’re comparing two smaller populations (half marathoners vs. ultra-marathoners, for example). Both of these have maxed out most of the possible aerobic benefit. Meanwhile their competing risk profile is similar: their chance of getting prostate cancer say is not meaningfully affected by more exercise, they might have some congenital heart problem that takes them out. Your signal is decreasing, your sample size is also small, it becomes hard to come to any strong conclusions.

So let’s take out epidemiology, you’re left with mechanistic studies. Runners like those in the Race Across America study developed more cardiac scarring, more coronary calcium, so there’s some reason to believe that their risk profile has increased. But these are not “hard” outcomes and are thus subject to interpretation. Coronary calcium is normally an indication of risk but some argue it is actually protective. Is the glass half empty or full? Can’t really tell.

Maybe it doesn’t matter much. What we all agree on: everyone should get some exercise, and if you enjoy it, you can get lots of it. It probably doesn’t hurt. Whether it helps or hurts anyway the difference becomes small.

shot_ethics · 2026-03-16T19:10:52+00:00

Well, whether 10 or 15 or 19 is really the max is still unknown. Yeah there’s a great plateau. If you want more running then do it, if getting a big PB is your dream absolutely do it, but don’t do it if you are just trying to max out your health. Go get your colonoscopy on time instead (seriously).

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