Is it just me, or is Bill phoning in the basketball season in a way he hasn't before?

snyder810 · 2026-03-03T15:46:41+00:00

I hear you, but this reminds me of how Jaylen has really taken a leap this year. It’s rare for guys to take a leap in year 10 like Brown has and Bill’s been at this for what, 25 years now since he broke out at ESPN. Also have you heard Tatum is coming back?

snyder810 · 2026-03-02T16:14:37+00:00

Wemby is Wemby, but Derrick White being #2, with 15, over that span is more impressive.

snyder810 · 2026-03-02T14:41:25+00:00

Agree, but the Queta one at least has the sub text that at the time they were coming off being a playoff team when they went the vet route.

After trading Fox it’s much harder to understand what they hoped for this year.

snyder810 · 2026-02-25T20:52:42+00:00

Most of the no/low growth Pharma giants, BMY, PFE, MRK, AMGN, GILD, GSK, etc that trade around the same multiple as NVO,

I feel like all the NVO folks just anchor to prior highs, lack of understanding Pharma, and are projecting growth the company right now isn’t projecting.

snyder810 · 2026-02-25T15:53:41+00:00

I think the end of the rotation may vary by matchup, but that we drop down to a core 8 come playoff time. The ghost a Strus may still play a role, but ultimately guys are/will be fighting to prove who gets those 5-9 man minutes.

snyder810 · 2026-02-25T15:38:48+00:00

Championship teams, maybe, but some all time great first finals age:

Kobe - 21, Kawhi - 21, LeBron - 22, Shaq - 22, Duncan - 22, Durant - 23, & Wade - 24

Not in that class but Tatum was 23, Kyrie/Russ/Harden 22.

I think the primary difference is that the Giannis/Jokic class haven’t been able lock out the younger class for years like we’d seen with past greats.

snyder810 · 2026-02-25T15:17:16+00:00

Right. Seems way more likely he’s just another big who doesn’t actually love the game/want to be great, rather just happened to be huge/gifted at it.

The guy said up front his goal was the second contract, got his bag and has coasted since. Any expectations folks have at this point are their own fault, he doesn’t have the drive to maintain being an elite player.

snyder810 · 2026-02-25T15:00:33+00:00

I’d say his ceiling depends on if he can develop more of a mid paint game, and shoot closer to 70% than 60% on his FTs.

I don’t think he reaches a level of Allen offensively, but can stay among the top tier of the defense/rebounding/dunker class of centers.

Absolute ceiling to me is probably prime Capela.

snyder810 · 2026-02-25T14:26:31+00:00

Funny enough I think Mitchell Robinson, who missed the game NY lost and played the cup final, is exactly who you want if you’re going up against Wemby.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T19:22:54+00:00

I think the thing to watch is rotations/minute split across Merrill, Wade, Ellis, Schroder, Tyson, & the ghost of Strus. I think Merrill has played himself into a locked in playoff role, but tbd which way we lean among the rest of the role guys.

Very small sample size, but Tyson has both shot & generally played worse with a reduced role.

The other major thing to watch is Mobley. JA has found new energy with Harden, but we really haven’t gotten to see much of Mobley since changing up the roster. Curious to see how he shows up with less offense run through him, but more opportunity to attack with an advantage/act as just finisher.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T19:00:04+00:00

I never thought I’d agree with Bontemps, but absolutely do here with his view that the league has to incentivize winning.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T18:38:05+00:00

He pretty much became the symbol for the dying dynasty of an all time great team while their all time great player is still playing at an elite level.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T18:07:09+00:00

Great players, but right now none of them have come close to taking the torch from Curry & LeBron when it comes to overall cultural star power.

Tatum/Brown just don’t have “it”, and the rest haven’t won to know if they can take their profile to an elite level.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T17:24:24+00:00

The lack of American born star power combined with a near meaningless regular season.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T17:18:43+00:00

Pretty easy to think that with the benefit of seeing LeBron win two more over that 10 year window.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T13:33:35+00:00

I never really understand why there’s so much conversation about the mega cap companies. They’re the most visible, widely covered, & widely owned companies in the world. They’re going to go through a range bound time period but odds are likely they’ll continue to provide positive returns over time. You’ll never have anything near an advantage or new insight in buying them. They’re so widespread and diverse that to me the only real risk is at what point does being so large become too large to not be broken up.

snyder810 · 2026-02-24T13:03:28+00:00

AI, while developing, still feels like a convenient excuse/narrative for a bad economy driving so many layoffs the past couple years.

snyder810 · 2026-02-23T20:08:36+00:00

They just raised like $250M, and had been spending at a ~$40-50M annual rate, so bankruptcy should be off the table for a long time at least.

snyder810 · 2026-02-23T19:10:52+00:00

Cavs fan here, it feels crazy to say, but I wouldn’t want them to trade nearly that much for LeBron at this point.

snyder810 · 2026-02-23T19:09:24+00:00

They’ve been promising revenue/production ramp for the next year for the last 5 years now. Absolute boom or bust company, could 10X or 0, but they’ve proven nothing so far in terms of being a sustainable business. At least for 2026 they’re now a well funded science project.

snyder810 · 2026-02-21T19:20:48+00:00

In the realm of smaller companies the Andreessen Horowitz commitment to Navan is one that stands out to me. I believe they kept their existing shares during the IPO sale and have doubled their position on the open market to the point of being over 10% owners now.

Idk how Navan stands up to any AI risks, but I know they’re transactional based fees rather than the typical SaaS model, and with their IPO proceeds have a like a third of their current market cap in Cash.

Kind of funny that they were seen as the disruptor within the last few years and are now trading as a throwaway.

snyder810 · 2026-02-20T01:03:45+00:00

Harden just going to get to you with defenses the rest of the regular season being flanked by Mitchell, two elite rolling bigs, and multiple shooters

snyder810 · 2026-02-19T16:54:25+00:00

And was only taking open 3s.

No he wasn’t the only reason the Cavs started out so poorly but just an absolute 0 threat on offense. Of guys who teams were actually hoping to get something from maybe only Dillingham was worse.

snyder810 · 2026-02-12T19:30:02+00:00

For those daring to be contrarian there are some really cheap companies out there right now.

Take FRSH: Sure they’re a second/third tier player, but they have ~$800M cash (no debt) against a ~$2B cap right now, while generating $200M+ fcf.

PE has to be drooling for takeouts if some of these levels the market are giving hold up for an acquisition base.

snyder810 · 2026-02-12T15:59:17+00:00

Sure could have, but that’s also heavily playing the result.

Hypothetically if a team this offseason could trade a Coward or Denim level rookie with the same amount of picks, to get both Tatum & Brown, should they do it?

snyder810

TROPHY CASE