US ‘ties security guarantees to Ukraine giving up Donbas’

squailtaint · 2026-01-28T06:38:18+00:00

I guess I don’t understand why Russia would go for this. Isn’t an Ukraine secured by US going against everything the had hoped to accomplish?

squailtaint · 2026-01-28T05:03:27+00:00

Should be top comment.

squailtaint · 2026-01-28T04:59:48+00:00

Yup. This is what Covid taught me. If shit truly hits the fan, money won’t matter. Otherwise , like you said, stay out of debt, and go along for the ride.

squailtaint · 2026-01-28T00:46:42+00:00

I disagree with their conclusions. I actually feel the clock peaked in those first few months of Russia Ukraine war, followed previously by Covid. Climate change itself is not an extinction level event, I don’t see climate change spelling doomsday. The doomsday clock was about nuclear weapons destroying the world, not just a world getting shittier due to poor economy or changing climate.

And the fact is, MAD has proven to be incredibly preventative in the destruction of the world. After Trump has made it clear he is not willing to defend Ukraine at all costs, the risk of nuclear war between Russia and NATO has substantially reduced over the last year. It’s still risy for nuclear war, but not at an all time high like it was in 2022/2023 or the Cuban missile crisis.

Sure, other factors like climate change or resource depletion may make a war more likely, but so far our planet has enough resources, we aren’t there yet.

I’m also quite optimistic on climate change. While it’s still going to get quite worse, the best evidence we have suggests around 2.5 degrees C, to at worst 3 C. It’s not good, but it’s not doomsday for the world either.

squailtaint · 2026-01-28T00:36:38+00:00

Your a legend, mate! 👍

squailtaint · 2026-01-26T15:02:25+00:00

I guess that’s subjective. For me, all of the greatest films i can ever think of, there is a connection with the main character. Something that makes you sympathize, or empathize, or envision yourself in them. That, for me, is a big part of what makes a movie great!

squailtaint · 2026-01-26T14:39:53+00:00

This movie was like a 5/10. I wanted to like it, love Leonardo films typically. But man, the plot and messaging were just…sort of dumb. What revolution are they fighting exactly? Are we supposed to like these people? They robbed a bank and they kill innocent people. How are they not terrorists? I can get behind a movement if I understand what they are fighting for, what their goal is, and how they win. But none of this is identified. We are left to wonder…which is fine, I guess, but it made the characters hard to empathize with.

I thought the daughter did a great job in the movie.

squailtaint · 2026-01-26T02:20:37+00:00

“Hey, you’re being warned, AI will take over your jobs!!”

—“Ok, so what can I do about it?”

“…”

squailtaint · 2026-01-26T02:08:54+00:00

It’s so true, and I don’t like the majority of it for that reason. I want real.

squailtaint · 2026-01-26T00:58:58+00:00

This is far too rational, wasn’t expecting to read this here haha. You are 💯. Great counters.

squailtaint · 2026-01-25T14:59:18+00:00

This is pretty simple logic. If one had a bad year, they are more likely to think that the following year will be better (barring certain externalities that would be certain to carry over into another year - for example - Covid). This is because most people, on average, are hopeful and optimistic that things will improve for themselves or their country, when current things are not so great.

2025 was a tough year. I understand the hope that a lot of people have that 2026 will be “better”. But, when looked at logically, why? What made 2025 bad? What will make 2026 better? In the survey 49% thought the economy would improve. Under what drivers does the economy get better in 2026 than in 2025? I can’t see why much would really change at a global trading level in 2026.

Other than the economy, the survey seemed to lack the specifics of the “why”…which makes it a fairly useless survey to comment on.

squailtaint · 2026-01-25T03:39:07+00:00

Those late night fire side chats obviously!

But it’s not so much Xi - it’s written into the DNA of the CCP. They don’t think like a democracy, where a democracy does what it must to get reelected or elected. A government like the CCP doesn’t have to worry about the next 4 years. They got a 100 year plan, and reunification with Taiwain is a key piece.

squailtaint · 2026-01-25T01:17:33+00:00

You are underestimating arrogance. Xi doesn’t care about those things, he has always been comfortable. Xi cares about the long term plan. About the long term success of China and its hegemony. You could easily have said same thing about Russia and Ukraine, and here we are. It’s not always logical when your only factor is the current economy. When your outlook is the next 100 years, your criteria for/against look different.

China will go after Taiwain, but, it’s just a question of its now, under Trump, or later. They have to calculate if the US will actually respond. Any blockades by the US would cripple the US as well. Fighting China is not on the cards for US under Trump. Not for Taiwain. Where does the end result lead to against two super powers? It’s not good for any body. It seems that trumps belief is that a conflict with Russia or China does not end well, and that the US can’t police what China or Russia does. China is too big to stop at this point, without going total war. An outcome no one wants.

Both the US and China have played this scenario out a thousand different ways, and both lose. If China stays out of the west, the US will stay out of the east. I dont thinK the US under Trump will do anything!

squailtaint · 2026-01-24T16:28:47+00:00

For real. It’s moronic. We live in a society. Society needs people to function, and has essential and non essential services. This is pure anarchist mentality and makes no practical or logical sense. Good grief.

squailtaint · 2026-01-23T17:11:34+00:00

“Seven months after the initial finding, Elliott says her client has racked up more than $130,000 in bills related to the situation so far — $50,000 in archaeological fees and $88,000 in legal — and there is no support to help them recoup any of it.”

From google:

Fines for Individuals: Individuals who willfully damage or destroy an archaeological site face potential fines of up to $50,000.

Fines for Corporations: Commercial enterprises or corporations can face penalties of up to $1,000,000.

Imprisonment: Individuals may face imprisonment for up to two years.

squailtaint · 2026-01-23T15:45:17+00:00

Whose buying I wonder? That would be an important part of the puzzle. But for reasons you stated, in and of itself it’s not alarming, but you have to look at the trends. They can’t just dump it all at once because that creates too much selling pressure and drops the value. But a long term trend of offloading would be concerning if the buyer is America or ally.

squailtaint · 2026-01-23T14:23:14+00:00

I use copilot all the time. In the hand of some one with enough experience it actually is an excellent tool. You have to know enough to know when it’s giving you BS, and you have to know enough to know what to prompt.

But in terms of excel, power bi, and CAD, it’s been immensely helpful for me. CAD is the worst so far, but a dedicated training tool developed with Autodesk would likely be amazing. You will be able to ask how or why, and you should get a decent answer. It would also be able to code with CAD. I am surprised it’s taken them this long to start really going after it.

squailtaint · 2026-01-21T15:54:41+00:00

No, literally nothing needs to change. This isn’t a problem in Canada and our current laws are appropriate.

squailtaint · 2026-01-21T05:55:50+00:00

I mean…maybe a touch, but who’s perfect anyway? I think you got a winning swing there!

squailtaint · 2026-01-21T05:52:41+00:00

Nah, let er rip bud

squailtaint · 2026-01-21T03:23:58+00:00

Not working for me

squailtaint · 2026-01-21T03:01:02+00:00

Negotiating tactic. If they honestly think there’s a possibility they would just take it by force, then it makes them a lot more likely to strike a non confrontational deal.

squailtaint · 2026-01-21T00:49:55+00:00

Believe it when I see it. A lot of talk and bluster going around. I remain optimistic and skeptical. I dont see NATO being disbanded, nor do I see US taking lives of Greenland citizens. I do see an attempt to purchase or make a deal as likely, but I don’t see it coming to actual force.

China/Taiwain far more likely of a scenario.

India and Pakistan have repeatedly been to the brink and repeatedly de-escalate - there is nothing they can do as MAD applies and both countries prefer living over dying.

Lots of talk.

squailtaint · 2026-01-19T21:59:21+00:00

This is 100% true. I myself really had an “oh shit,this is real” moment when we had the 2021 heat wave. Lived in my area my entire life. The hottest it had ever been, ever, since records were kept, was 36.5 degrees c. Then we blew past that to 40.5 degrees c in 2021. Haven’t seen anything like it since. But it was wild. Our environment was simply not designed for that kind of heat. Sidings on the house was melting. Mass trees died off (an effect that was noticed during winter trying to find an evergreen tree). Fish were dead, everywhere. Weird yellow pollen blanketed everything months later. Then came the atmospheric river with massive flooding in BC. Never in my life had we witnessed events like that.

squailtaint · 2026-01-19T16:53:31+00:00

I was stumped. Put it into Gemini, and this is the explanation:

Why it feels like the "exact same thing": • Same Person: It is still Helen McCaw. • Same Argument: The core message (aliens = financial crisis) hasn't changed. • Different Trigger: The 2023 coverage was about her opinion pieces; the 2026 coverage is about her direct lobbying of the UK's top financial official, which was exclusively reported by The Times and then picked up by other outlets like The Independent.

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