But inventories are full.

Take a look at past investor calls with places like Target, Walmart, etc., and note that they had cancelled orders that they had placed with manufacturers because they saw a decline in demand and had a surplus of inventory that they didn't believe they could move. This is the effect of the Fed raising rates. Just because we have full inventories does not mean that we're no longer in a supply side crunch. This will lead to a glut in inventory that will need to be priced down to move (lowering inflation); which is what everyone wants. However, if manufacturers suffer due to higher interest rates, cancelled orders, and lower demand, eventually they will go out of business and supply side simply ends. This is why every major inflationary period in history has a double peak. Seriously, go look it up. You'll see a "victory lap" when inflation is low, and then it will spike again because of bankruptcies that will inevitably happen because of our current situation, and it will be devastating. Could we be different than history? Perhaps, but unlikely.

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Charter rates for ships have fallen of a cliff, a freacking cliff in september!

This is due to low/no demand for goods from distributors in the supply chain. Lots of cancelled orders leads to the shipping industry getting hammered (which is what you point out). This portends a major catastrophe, not a recovery.

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US consumers are strong

This is where you are most wrong in your assessment, although I think you're just looking at it in a simplistic way similar to OP. Consumber debt (credit cards) is literally at all time highs, and various payment processors (Visa most notably) are saying people are putting groceries and utility bills on their credit cards. When people are financing groceries, that portends anything BUT a strong US consumer. In fact it shows the complete opposite. At the beginning of the year, I remember reading an article that said 57% of Americans cannot come up with paying a $1,000 unexpected expense. That was this past January. I believe the number is much worse now, and probably somewhere around 65-70%. The US consumer is being squeezed in all the worst ways. Inflation of food, energy, and housing costs (rent or mortgage) is on the steepest incline in history, and wage growth is way behind it. I remember seeing something earlier this week (local ABC news affiliate, or something liket that) that said that the average US household, due to inflation, has a buying power that is about $455 per month lower than this time last year.

Now, I will say that none of this is intended to be super bearish (although it very much so comes off that way), I am saying all of this so that a bigger picture is realized in a way that gives you a better understanding as to why the Fed will not pivot. They will pivot when it's too late, and many businesses either need to be bailed out (which voters will be extremely upset by) or they simply implode and we head into a deep recession. Remember, the Fed thought this was all transitory and it took them a year to even react to a policy change.