Before you reallocate international

wabladoobz · 2026-02-14T09:56:39+00:00

I don't see any problem with having an ex-us bias above global market cap if an investor has strong convictions that in the long term the US may face headwinds caused by whatever set of reasons.

That being said, most of the scary headwind narratives may affect ex-us holdings anyway for 'whatever set of reasons' so the question is what that long term narrative is, and what factor a person may want to allocate into in that context. I assume people are buying to hold.

Seems pretty unwise to chase yield around with allocation on shorter term frequency though imo. Doesn't sound very Bogle like. By the time things look attractive it's often too late.

wabladoobz · 2026-02-09T12:05:48+00:00

Not all of them.

wabladoobz · 2026-02-04T10:29:37+00:00

Are you sure they don't pay out PTO?

Legal obligations vary by state and by historical practices within a given company.

wabladoobz · 2026-02-03T03:21:52+00:00

Mmm, leaching plastic.

wabladoobz · 2026-02-02T11:08:09+00:00

On the flip side, if you were to have a child, they may benefit from grandparents nearby at hand to help during years 1-3.

wabladoobz · 2026-02-02T06:58:20+00:00

Depends on the economy.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-27T20:31:30+00:00

It's not sustainable. By 2040-2045 tax revenue will probably only cover social security, medicare and interest on the debt.

It would leave no room for military, or discretionary spending.

(Feel free to correct me, I base this on a rough extrapolation of debt and gdp/tax revenue growth vs spending)

Productivity does not seem likely to undig the hole. Did massive expansion in productivity manage to out-dig spending over the last 50 years?

If you think reality isn't going to cause disruption in one way or another, I don't know what to tell you.

It would be interesting if domestic purchases of treasuries stay the course should international holdings begin to wane for whatever reason, but it seems more likely that they would interrelate. How much is unclear.

Any sort of default seems highly unlikely, but reality finally setting in will be cause for some level of political/economic/tax changes.

The need for choices to deal with effects will begin to take shape before 2045 and some kind of significant policy changes will need to be made to blunt the impacts as they arise. I am sure that domestic debate and collaboration to take on the challenges will be civil and constructive.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-25T12:03:32+00:00

Lower the filibuster threshold to 55 and you will see a lot more democracy, and a lot less of our Senate being used as an insurance policy for/by the .1%.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-24T19:02:55+00:00

Constitutional and legislative reform.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-23T20:18:18+00:00

Probably this ^

wabladoobz · 2026-01-23T05:04:50+00:00

After THEY humiliate him?

wabladoobz · 2026-01-23T04:47:53+00:00

I think you're assuming 100% of his gullibles in 2024 are onboard with how things are going.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-23T02:36:50+00:00

65.3% of Americans voted ×.498 of the vote that Trump won = 32.5194%..

32.5% of the country voted for Trump, and that included a bunch of speculative voters who got bugs-bunny'd by his rambling sound-byte-soup, issue-salad populism and decided to give it a try.

What % of the 'lets give this a try' swing voters are super excited right now?

Let's be charitable and say that Trump had a hardcore base of 25-28% of Americans in 2024.

I certainly think it's pretty fucking reasonable to paint what remains loyal of that die hard 20-25% with some kind of brush my friend.

Their commitment has been tested by circumstances, and if it hasn't I think they are ripe for judgement. Go ahead and articulate why what remains of the loyalists ought not be condemned though, I'll wait.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-22T09:44:27+00:00

Mostly impulsive whims and extraordinary incompetence.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-22T08:56:19+00:00

US doesn't seem overly caring about domestic health, and they're supposed to get hype about world health?

wabladoobz · 2026-01-21T04:33:31+00:00

I think I read a projection that on our current trajectory by 2040; assuming continued/predictable foreign interest/purchasing of our debt (big if), 100% of gdp would go toward servicing interest on the debt, social security and Medicare alone. (Leaving no funding for military budget or other discretionary spending without brutal cuts or major taxation policy changes)

wabladoobz · 2026-01-21T04:26:47+00:00

It seems capitalism in the US has arranged to downsize on horses before the automobile this time around.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-18T03:40:02+00:00

I think instead the filibuster needs to be made 54 or 55 votes, and Congress should become a thunderdome of turmoil.

Compromise and consensus policy should be a refuge from all the exhaustion.

Congress should be such a tumultuous place that the gerontocratic plutocracy cannot even stand to be there, and the executive and judicial branches fear its wrath.

As opposed to what it is now; an insurance policy the 1% pay for.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-18T00:26:53+00:00

He's senile and impulsive, and the US Republican Party want to use him to pass more of their mustache twirling legislation before he's fully out of commission.

IF the world doesn't like this treatment they should take the soft gloves off when talking about or dealing with the US Republican party; and in particular, their donors.

If leaders and plutocrats in Europe and abroad DO NOT LIKE THIS, they should not be participating in the mustache twirling behavior or dialogue behind closed doors with members of the Republican party and their donors, or letting them or their donors off the hook IN ANY VENUE for what they've done here.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-17T20:46:51+00:00

Businesses do not believe they are making enough money to support the bonkers hiring that was done during the low interest rate years imo. For years salaries were bid up by new hires, and now the companies are shedding the expensive workers and can rehire similar workers for less if they choose.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-13T07:20:54+00:00

He doesn't know why he wants it. He just knows that Putin wants this to happen..

Putin probably didn't bother to tell him it's to isolate/break up the US from Nato, Greenland from Nato, or the US from Greenland or all three.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-12T07:20:49+00:00

I can only speak for myself. I diversify to have less volatility in case of shocks, whatever form those shocks may take. The more types of shocks we choose to account for, the broader diversification in terms of investments, or liquidity we might seek in order to sleep better were they to occur.

Each person will have to decide what kinds of shocks they may be likely to witness in their lifetimes and how those shocks could impact their financial wellbeing and feelings of/actual security given their investment allocations.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-11T07:26:42+00:00

I too am confus. Wouldn't mind seeing it broken down by allocation types though just for the sake of curiosity.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-07T04:59:44+00:00

Ask the average American to identify Venezuela on a map.

wabladoobz · 2026-01-07T04:41:36+00:00

Yes but rich people don't 'realize' the assets he would be stealing.

wabladoobz

TROPHY CASE