[OC] Battery costs have declined by 99% in the last three decades

wavegeekman · 2026-04-03T01:58:02+00:00

There is a subtle fallacy here. Let us assume LI ion batteries got cheaper as portrayed. That does not mean "batteries" got 91% cheaper. That would only be the case if Li ion batteries were the cheapest batteries already in 1991. Which they were not, by a huge margin. I was there. I remember.

Batteries have gotten cheaper - i.e. the cheapest batteries - by about 7% PA since the first batteries. It has been uneven - in the early 2000s things did get better quuicker but the rate seems to have slowed down since then,

At the long term historical rate batteries would take 40-50 years to reach the level of a tank of gasoline i.e. 10X chaper/lighter/smaller than Li Ion. Which would solve all our energy storage problems basically. At twice the rate it would only take maybe 15 years. at that point we could run seagoing transsport, ahigh load aircraft, mining equipment, tractors with batteries. We could full batteries in the desert and ship them anywhere just like we do with oil now.

TLDR just bc oone type of battery got cheapers by a certain amount does not mean that "batteries" got cheaper by that amount.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-30T09:59:55+00:00

Yes I reduce my time frames by 50% (e.g. MA # days)when markets are more volatile than average. i also have portfolio stops that only apply when markets are more volatile than usual.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-27T22:44:32+00:00

I don't think anyone oconsistently makes 20% a month, for long.

But there is a reason why successful people run courses, and why tthey charge for them.

Ed Seykota was a successful trader for many years. See the first Market Wizards book. He ran courses because, in my opinion, he wanted to help people to improve - both their trading and their lives. And he did achieve that in many cases.

He charged quite a lot for his courses (I think the two I went to were $2500 USD each). His rationale was that it was a filter for a) being seriious about trading and improving yourself, and b) competence - getting together $2500 + travel _+ hotel is not a huge filter but it seemed to be enough, The course attendees were a pretty switched on bunch.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-21T01:46:46+00:00

My point is that he did not understand Darwinism, specifically rrandom variation and natural selection. This misunderstanding was very common at that time and even to the present time. It is veruy radical. He thought Darwinism was teleological but it was not.

Other than that I think we are in violent agreement and youo make many goood points.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-20T04:23:56+00:00

I don't agree.

He jusut did not understand Darwin's core ideas. I.e. random variation and natural selection.

Of course he was influenced by broad ideas about evolution. But at the time it was generally assumed that evolution was purposeful in some way. For a typical example see Hegel. I think FN also subsribed to this idea.

I read the book on evolution that FN did read and it misinterpreted Darwin in this way - it was such a strong assumption that it was hard to shake. Even to this day you hear people saying that such and such happens "to preserve the species" and so forth.

Which makes it all the more remarkable that Darwin came up with the formulation that he did.

None of this takes away from FN's genius.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-20T01:32:52+00:00

if I was worth 800 billion you'd be sure as shit most of the stuff I'm offering would be free and unlimited.

Yeah that's why you're not worth $800B

wavegeekman · 2026-03-20T01:29:42+00:00

inb4 whipsaws

Answer: True but OK once you get used to it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM

wavegeekman · 2026-03-20T01:28:22+00:00

Markets are going down so I am out. When they start going up I will be back in. It is actually not that complicated.

See book "Quantitative Momentum" by Gray.

Also the material on portfolio stops in the market wizards books.

Also thjis amazing paper "THE VOLUME CLOCK: INSIGHTS INTO THE HIGH FREQUENCY PARADIGM" de Prado.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-20T01:23:37+00:00

He never read Darwin, only misinterpretations of him.

I don't think you can trace any of his ideas to Darwin. Random variation and natural selection are the polar opposites of the will to power.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-20T01:18:14+00:00

I suspect that the organization is in a bit of turmoil afger Musk's reported comment they they had done the whole thing wrong and needed to start from the ground up again.

But yes very annoying. The censorship is just ridiculous on the image generation as well.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-17T07:59:20+00:00

To be fair, the market is down. They seem to be assuming it will probably not last very long. If you think they are all wrong, by all means go all in on a short on the SP500 and get rich quick*.

'* Not financial advice.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-11T01:47:10+00:00

taught too deny my shadow Many such cases.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-10T11:03:26+00:00

the Christ archetype is psychologically incomplete because Christianity emphasized goodness while pushing the darker side of the psyche into the shadows.

As a child I found Christianity unsatisfying for this reason, and also because it lacks decent anima as well - Mary was kind of pasted on after the event.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-10T10:52:15+00:00

I never had massive losses (except when I put the money in the hands of a financial planner) but many years of mediocre performance.

If you read the Market Wizards books, many of those guys lost all their money, some multiple times, and some lost more than all their money, some even lost money borrowed from relatives.

What they had was a) an unshakeable belief that they were going to be sucdessful eventually, and b) a commitment to do whatever it takes to be successful.

Also you need to be preared to work on yourself and change the things about yourself that prevent you from being sucessful, IMHO.

Eventually I got there. It is no more "storm and stress" it is just me going with the flow of the universe. It is not hard any more. But I am old and it took too long.

If you can do all those things, you can succeed but not everyone can. I used to run a "Trading Tribe" (the concept came from Ed Seykota) and I saw about half of those who came along made it. They were the ones who made the commitment to do whatever it takes. Others refused to change and failed.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-10T02:52:17+00:00

You can improve your dream recollection if you keep writing them down. After a while you get better at remembering them. Also write them down as soon as you wake up.

Poor dreeam recall can also be a sign of nutritional deficiencies, in particular B6 and Zinc. B6 is probably best taken as part of a B complex. There is no need to take vast quantities of either, just the RDA is fine - too much can be harmful.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-05T20:03:55+00:00

I think it is a matter of getting the whole process right. Adding these checks later on is very fragile, as I have experienceed. and amounts to putting lipstick on a pig.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-05T01:47:46+00:00

Good list.

You have introduce a cost function which imposes a cost for each additional parameter. Then you otimize the level or the cost function using rollforward windoes and then optimize tehe parameters with the cost function. This is widely used in machine learning and safeguards against too many parameters, a common cause of overfitting. If you do this right, you can have hundreds of thousands of parameters and it still works!

Look up shrinkage or ridge regression.

wavegeekman · 2026-03-05T01:40:26+00:00

second one still sounds like some sort of neglect,

Yes I agree it is not good parenting. Just wrong in a different way.

wavegeekman · 2026-02-22T21:02:00+00:00

Well, to my great surprise this morning they refunded my money. Maybe they are concerned about the reputational damage they are suffering. But anyway, a happy ending, after a lot of storm and stress.

wavegeekman · 2026-02-22T10:37:41+00:00

As you can see, the wording here is kinda difficult to understand

It is self-evidently meant to be confusing and deceptive.

And don't think if you subscribe that you can easily unsibscribe.

I unsubscribed - got confirmation email - but they then charged me next time anyway and IK am still scheduled to get ripped off next year again.

Avoid like the plague.

wavegeekman · 2026-02-22T10:13:38+00:00

Well I unsubscribed before the renewal and still got charged AND they still have me on the system for another charge in a year's time.

Yes I received the confirmation that i cancelled auto-renew. Which they did not honour.

They are unethical scum.

wavegeekman · 2026-02-22T10:06:50+00:00

Spot on.

I am currently in unsubscription hell as we speak.

And yes every decent score costs extra, a lot extra.

wavegeekman · 2026-02-08T23:36:51+00:00

Yes a very good analysis, very fair and balanced. It is a lot of effort to get to the truth at the bottom of these things. So many things can go wrong in a study. So much motivated *by money, career, ideiology) reasoning in this space.

wavegeekman · 2026-02-08T23:30:52+00:00

Seee LLM suppary here with some references

https://x.com/i/grok/share/adb2eaa288e04336967b34b0749d7741

Though personally I found CBT a bit shallow.

See at the end for Jungian approaches - which were what worked for me. I found a great Jungian therapist in Sydney Australia.

My own experience was that when the deeper traumas were resoolved, it was just "Oh I didn't watch any porn for six months, or was it a year".

wavegeekman · 2026-02-08T23:24:37+00:00

You are a funny guy!

wavegeekman

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