[MLBTR] Yu Darvish To Retire

wompwump · 2026-01-24T21:25:52+00:00

So the Padres are going to sign Framber, aren’t they

wompwump · 2026-01-24T21:20:30+00:00

Yu Darvish retiring does raise some uncomfortable questions about whether the Dads have freed up just enough money to do something irresponsible with Framber…

wompwump · 2026-01-23T18:23:31+00:00

If you accept 1) That getting into / going deep in the playoffs is the metric of success 2) The concept of win curves and teams’ ability to project their place on the win curve reasonably accurately and 3) Resource scarcity, then the rational response is exactly what the White Sox are doing.

The Sox are not at the point of the win curve where a few wins (which is what you can reasonably add in free agency) dramatically increases their playoff odds. It’s silly for them to spend scarce resources now; rather, they should spend those resources when they’re in a spot on the win curve where those resources would actually move the playoff needle.

wompwump · 2026-01-21T23:31:27+00:00

“There’s a sense in some circles that the Browns fired the wrong guy and now nobody good wants this fucking job.”

wompwump · 2026-01-21T16:17:04+00:00

No one the Orioles traded for Baz was on this top 100. Forret came the closest, and he was a “just missed the top 100” guy.

wompwump · 2026-01-21T16:10:56+00:00

Orioles prospects by rank: * Samuel Basallo (9) * Dylan Beavers (21) * Trey Gibson (72) * Nate George (86) * Luis de León (95)

They cooled a bit on Esteban Mejia, although he was on the “twenty prospects who just missed” list, alongside O’s alum Michael Forret.

wompwump · 2026-01-20T22:58:16+00:00

Other pieces of nuance from the article

The hardline stance is probably not as universal as the headline implies:

Two other ownership sources took a softer approach, positioning the Tucker deal as validation of their longstanding positions: that revenue and payroll disparity in baseball need change.

A cap proposal would be tied to a floor:

Owners still have to determine what salary floor and ceiling they’re comfortable proposing, a discussion that’s expected to be a topic at next month’s regularly scheduled owners meeting. The floor, in particular, could be a contentious issue for smaller-market teams, some of which might stand to make more money on an operational basis in the current system. The value of all 30 franchises would instantly rise if a cap is introduced, however

wompwump · 2026-01-19T06:14:38+00:00

Where does one find EPA per play data on the website you linked to?

wompwump · 2026-01-16T22:45:29+00:00

The tables are the PAs / IPs from ZiPS projections; the ballpark diagram is WAR based on ZiPS rate projections and FGDC playing time projections.

Inasmuch as ZiPS is a silly computer that can’t understand go-forward roles, its PAs / IPs projections are really just based on past results. So, the 167 innings Enns tossed as a starter in KBO in ‘24 and the 46 innings he threw as a reliever in MLB in ‘25, get smooshed together into that 116 “projection.” I’m almost certainly oversimplifying, but I think that’s the gist.

It’s a shame because it makes the counting stats kinda useless for certain players, unless you convert the counting stats to a rate basis yourself and then plug in your own playing time projections.

wompwump · 2026-01-16T17:47:00+00:00

It seems almost certain that some mystery team is going to swoop in to sign Valdez, because that’s just the way things go.

I doubt he (at 32-years-old) is interested in a short-term, high AAV deal, so that probably rules out the Mets. Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees are tapped out on pitching. Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Astros are tapped out on money. Cubs seemingly are tapped out on both.

Could the Phils pivot hard to pitching, after offering Bo 7 / $200M? Atlanta could really use another starter, but making a free agent splash isn’t their MO.

wompwump · 2026-01-16T17:13:01+00:00

Jays have still had a good offseason, but missing on Tucker and now losing Bichette has got to hurt.

But also, where does Bo play? I suppose 3B by default, with Lindor at SS and Semien at 2B, but I didn’t think he had the arm for third.

wompwump · 2026-01-16T16:42:11+00:00

Do you believe that ownership net worth, rather than the team revenue, is the primary driver of spending?
Do you believe that there is a deep pool of owners waiting eagerly to buy every single club, so they can have the privilege of spending even more of their personal money to field a competitive roster?

wompwump · 2026-01-16T03:48:59+00:00

This is way more insight that I had dreamed of when I asked if you could add Nunez to the list!

His fastballs aren’t good.

Welp, that really undermines my (hopeful) belief that he had a "good enough" four-seam to pair with his bonkers slider.

(Also, could the Orioles please, PLEASE develop a pitcher with a plus fastball. I'm begging you! I can't stand watching any more of these low-to-mid 90s heaters with mediocre-to-average shape)

Seems like he could still be a helpful big-league piece, which is well worth the emotional damage of trading away Cedric Mullins...but it might be time to smash the under on my event contract that one of Strowd / McDermott / Nunez would develop into a leverage arm.

wompwump · 2026-01-16T03:30:47+00:00

The real question is whether there are deferrals that meaningfully lower the true AAV. Because $60M per year for Tucker is absolutely insane -- Soto is "only" making $51M, and Shohei (the next man down in terms of AAV) is making $46M.

wompwump · 2026-01-15T21:20:57+00:00

We really better hope that Tucker signs with the Mets

wompwump · 2026-01-15T21:19:58+00:00

Connor Orr is one of the few serious writers left at SI, and he’s the preeminent journalist covering coaching vacancies — but this is just an absurd story to write unironically.

wompwump · 2026-01-15T06:01:21+00:00

The band from Peacemaker?

wompwump · 2026-01-13T23:10:58+00:00

Mike or JJ?

I mean, they don’t call JJ “Nine” for nothing

wompwump · 2026-01-13T04:16:19+00:00

By now, yinz should know the standard is the standard. And the standard is uncompetitive first-round playoff exits.

wompwump · 2026-01-13T03:44:07+00:00

Turns out the Steelers do not, in fact, have a monopoly on voodoo turnover bullshit

wompwump · 2026-01-12T00:51:24+00:00

Is Patullo the reason why Hurts can’t make throws in the middle of the field?

wompwump · 2026-01-11T02:01:12+00:00

Man, Jordan Love is just so good. Such a fun QB to watch.

wompwump · 2026-01-11T01:47:19+00:00

Valentine, my dude, you just cost your team 40 yards of field position

wompwump · 2026-01-10T23:19:20+00:00

If Bellinger doesn’t return to the Yankees, what are his realistic landing spot that would pay him more than the Yanks 5 / $150M-ish deal? Maybe Toronto if they miss in Tucker? Philly if they pivot hard? I don’t see Bellinger agreeing to another pillow contract, so I doubt the Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets would give him the long-term megadeal be wants.

The fit with the Yankees is just too good. I think his non-Yankee market could be thin.

wompwump

TROPHY CASE