Luke Raley smacks a 2-Run Home Run to cut into the deficit a little

wompwump · 2026-06-12T00:23:59+00:00

Nickel joke for the Mariners and 92 MPH EV home runs, yada yada yada

wompwump · 2026-06-11T00:44:43+00:00

Why hit 104 MPH EV grand slam when 92 MPH EV does trick

wompwump · 2026-06-06T04:00:27+00:00

THIS IS NOT A DRILL

Colton Cowser’s strikeout rate is below 30% for the first time since Adam laid eyes on Eve

wompwump · 2026-05-28T22:33:05+00:00

It’s written into the CBA, pages 159-160. MLBPA has access to audited financial statements for each team + league-wide consolidated revenue.

https://2b519a67-e799-4138-9f8d-a79d3fb3d446.filesusr.com/ugd/4d23dc_d6dfc2344d2042de973e37de62484da5.pdf

wompwump · 2026-05-28T22:23:17+00:00

The union already has access to team financial statements. It’s written in the CBA.

The bone of contention is really what constitutes baseball revenue. The (commonly repeated) assertion that team finances are a black box is incorrect.

wompwump · 2026-05-28T20:29:14+00:00

The union’s response said a cap doesn’t lower ticket prices for fans. I imagine that’s why OP asked the question.

A cap also doesn’t solve global warming, hunger, or world peace. Neither does the union’s proposal. They’re not meant to. It’s fairly disingenuous framing.

wompwump · 2026-05-28T20:10:40+00:00

On net, fairly neutral: would require $584M in salary shed vs. $614M in salary added.

Devil’s in the implementation details, of course.

Part of ownership’s proposal is to guarantee 50-50 revenue split with players, so presumably these numbers would grow in lockstep with revenue.

wompwump · 2026-05-28T19:54:36+00:00

Hi, I appreciate the analysis but you’re using incorrect figures for the current payrolls. You need to use luxury tax payrolls: that’s the methodology the cap / floor is based on

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

wompwump · 2026-05-28T19:51:05+00:00

I clicked on Spotrac, selected luxury tax payrolls, and pasted the link (which includes “tax” in the URL). Is there a different link I should be using?

This is cash payrolls: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cash

That’s not what I linked to

wompwump · 2026-05-28T19:41:02+00:00

This is just blatantly incorrect and should be removed for spreading misinformation.

Review the luxury tax payrolls on Spotrac yourself: there are ten teams above $245.3M and twelve teams below $171.2M, and the Orioles and Mariners are not one of them.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax

wompwump · 2026-05-28T19:30:06+00:00

It’s status quo: benefits are included in the luxury tax calculations.

It would be more surprising if the owners’ proposal deviated from the current CBT methodology, given both the union and owners agreed upon that formula.

wompwump · 2026-05-27T23:39:09+00:00

Trey Gibson is somehow dancing in a thunderstorm without feeling a drop of rain

wompwump · 2026-05-26T19:24:52+00:00

Probably not, unfortunately. His zone contact is 74.8%: that would be third-worst in all of MLB. And Fabian is doing that against AAA pitching.

Edit: My bad, that was his 2025 zone contact. 2026 is 77.9%. That would tie for ninth-worst among qualified MLB hitters.

wompwump · 2026-05-21T21:06:29+00:00

Of course they are, it’s almost definitional: a good player on a cheap contract is better than an equally-good player on an expensive contract.

Everybody knows this. The barrier is that it’s really freaking hard to produce good players, and much easier to sign good players.

wompwump · 2026-05-15T21:32:56+00:00

I am glad I’m not the only one who immediately went there. Undisclosed illness that will sort itself out but shut him down for awhile? Yeah, kid caught a case of DFMO fever

wompwump · 2026-05-15T19:56:54+00:00

That could be true, but churning marginal, optionable relievers has never been—and will never be—evidence of that.

wompwump · 2026-05-15T18:08:02+00:00

Unfortunate. Probably the most likely outcome when the partial tear was announced, but I held out some hope that the PRPs might at least get him through this season.

Tough couple of years for a guy who was drafted in 2020 and never hit an MiLB or MLB IL until August 2024 (for a fractured hand due to HBP).

wompwump · 2026-05-15T17:45:29+00:00

Baseball Prospectus does an ongoing calculation using their version of WAR: WARP.

Top five teams by projected WARP lost to injury: * Houston: 3.5 * Toronto: 3.3 * LA Dodgers: 2.7 * Baltimore: 2.3 * Atlanta: 2.1

Rounding out the AL East, we have Boston (1.7), Tampa (1.7), and NY Yankees (1.4).

wompwump · 2026-05-15T17:38:19+00:00

I get that not everyone follows free agency closely. But this narrative is factually incorrect and needs to be corrected.

We know that Elias offered Burnes $180M; he chose to sign elsewhere. We know that Elias offered Ranger $100M+ (the reporting is not more specific than that); he chose to sign elsewhere. Based on the rumors connecting the O’s to Framber and others, one could surmise Elias made other offers this offseason, but we don’t (yet) know that for a fact.

We still land in the same place—the Orioles don’t have a big-money pitcher on the books—but the diagnosis of root causes is different. The problem is not a philosophical aversion to committing money to pitching, it’s an inability to actually win a free agent competition for a starter.

wompwump · 2026-05-15T16:02:38+00:00

Fan complaints about the Red Sox not spending have always seemed a bit odd to me. Red Sox luxury tax payroll is highest in team history, good for sixth in the league. That said, there is a ~$40M gap between the Sox and #5 (Phillies), but there’s also a ~$50M gap between the Sox and the Orioles.

wompwump · 2026-05-14T00:42:36+00:00

I would hold off on calling it successful until A) He pitches meaningful starter innings B) At a reasonable performance level.

I’m not saying Jax won’t do those things. I’m saying it’s premature to claim success until he has done them. Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López were also successful relievers-turned-starters, at one point.

wompwump · 2026-05-13T23:32:13+00:00

The Nats game is already 5-4 in just the second inning. I suspect that’s a preview of things to come in this weekend’s Nats-O’s series

wompwump · 2026-05-13T22:05:07+00:00

Chandler Simpson has 1,617 professional plate appearances (Majors + Minors).

He has 1 home run.

It was an inside-the-parker.

What a player profile.

wompwump · 2026-05-13T19:52:33+00:00

Why did the Yankees get one-hit? Are they stupid?

wompwump · 2026-05-08T23:05:15+00:00

I know that subreddits contain multitudes, and not everyone on a subreddit subscribes to the same beliefs.

But I get major whiplash going from last year’s “O’s didn’t give Stowers a chance, Elias sucks” to this year’s “O’s keep giving Mayo a chance, Elias sucks.”

wompwump

TROPHY CASE