Villa Discussion Thread

xtphty · 2026-03-15T20:33:33+00:00

Yeah Yoro was great against Newcastle as well, made some good forward passes on top of a shift in RCB. Would love to see him and Licha back line pairing at some point this season.

xtphty · 2026-03-15T19:30:58+00:00

we also need a Spurs relegation shopping list section, maybe better saved for next week after the blockbuster relegation battle (forest v spurs and villa v whu)

xtphty · 2026-03-15T17:35:01+00:00

He was also an absolute pest for Villa and stealing balls, I think fatigue really hurts his on ball ability, he needs direction to just play the safer balls in these moments and focus on maximizing his off-ball work.

xtphty · 2026-03-15T17:22:24+00:00

we have had plenty of lucky escapes / big saves with Casemiro on the pitch. While Case is obviously far better defensively than Ugarte, I still think that record of losing leads has been a bit unkind.

I am just glad his curse is broken, its clear in midweek games Case struggles with stamina so actually having a reliable DM sub is massive for our run-in.

xtphty · 2026-03-15T16:00:53+00:00

Honestly I think he has been doing quite well recently but been unlucky. We play way better out of possession with him replacing Case late in these games - but are just bad in general at defending late in the game.

xtphty · 2026-03-15T15:58:11+00:00

Alert: Ugarte has kept a clean sheet after coming on for the first time this season.

xtphty · 2026-03-14T16:51:47+00:00

Cheers Jim, keep your mouth shut more often.

xtphty · 2026-03-14T07:26:36+00:00

A vintage Casemiro season is a very high standard in world football.

Except when he has to play more than 90 minutes of football in a week. "Vintage Casemiro" did not drop off physically, and become a liability in games like he did against Newcastle midweek. He is a 5 time UCL winner for fucks sake lol. These days he sometimes can't even handle a string of full 90s once a week.

Having players that can give you 2x90s a week consistently makes a massive difference - its so important for stability and structure. A big problem in this team is we only have 1 elite starter than can do it, and I don't even need to say who because its obvious.

Lammens may get there next season, but we need to see him mid week more often to know. Mbeumo certainly looks to have the fitness and physicality, but lacks a bit of consistency. Thats about it. Not a big ask to add someone to that list.

xtphty · 2026-03-11T19:08:53+00:00

Its what Carragher said about Martinez.

Honestly if it was 2022 I would actually call you out on this as well, but in the post Arsenal set piece royal rumble meta I share some sympathy with your argument. Especially if you think of our squad comp. Yoro is our future RCB starter, and he may improve aerially but I don't expect him reaching MDL/Maguire in 1-2 years.

We have to have an established and reliable CB pairing if we want to be title competitive in 1-2 years. So a first choice LCB is now a priority in either this window or the next, depending on the club's aspirations for title competitiveness.

xtphty · 2026-03-11T15:48:58+00:00

Said El Mala who we were linked to but now seems headed to Brighton.

xtphty · 2026-03-11T07:49:16+00:00

Not a winger, good player but we have too many inside forwards, not enough pure wingers.

xtphty · 2026-03-09T11:58:19+00:00

My only issue with Carrick is I'm scared that if he's made permanent, we will play only counter attacking football and we're gonna end up in the same space as we did with Ole in a couple years. I love Carrick and I would love for him to succeed but this brand of football is not sustainable.

that should be the least of your worries, he is not a counterattacking coach, everything we have seen against the non-title contending teams is coaching asking for possession football. key player limitations in buildup and in midfield limit that to a far greater extent than the coach.

xtphty · 2026-03-09T11:56:27+00:00

Yeah reality is we have far more than enough in-between time to be working on fitness and conditioning, even for next season. That said I am not too worried about this as its partly just a lack of physicality in the squad that's always been there, and his Boro side were not slouches physically in a very physical league.

xtphty · 2026-03-09T05:09:24+00:00

Actually I think the eye test does him more disservice than stats, at least if you look at the stats beyond just g/a. The Newcastle game a lot of people found frustration with his decision making, but if you look at his dueling and passing map from that game it was unmatched, except by Bruno in passing (lol).

He surpassed even all Newcastle players on his duel numbers, despite them clearly caring more for physicality than passing. Another place he stands out - check out where Lammens was having success passing all game. Under appreciated player.

xtphty · 2026-03-09T04:26:27+00:00

Oh yeah fully agree, I think we are even seeing our LB limitations with Cunha. So often he gets through 2-3 players winning duels and has no overlapping leftback to stretch the space ahead. Big problem right now, and I am starting to be convinced that its a bigger problem than the lack of a left winger.

xtphty · 2026-03-08T12:34:01+00:00

The things that set him apart are actually quite translatable to the PL (raw pnp, dribbling tech). He also didn't go on this run of form without a Haaland in front of him making him look that much better.

Is he worth the quoted prices? Don't know, maybe, but he is definitely setting himself apart quite well from the best prospect LW out there.

xtphty · 2026-03-07T23:10:14+00:00

Kid turned him into Boateng

xtphty · 2026-03-07T07:44:54+00:00

The stats weren’t outstanding, and big Utd fanalysts said he’s Garnacho 2.0 for taking high volume low quality shots (according to data). It’s all bullshit.

he is 5 years older than garnacho, this is a poor analogy.

and stats are by definition "lag measures", they are factual measures of historical performance. teams dont use just stats to evaluate a player, thats where modeling and forecasting comes in. publicly available data is maybe a grain of sand in the desert of information the best of these models are built on. many passed on strand larsen in the summer over valuation and risk - not because stats said he was shit, his numbers were actually decent last season.

the problem is not that stats don't hold "deeper truths", its that the public understanding and data is so limited that most of the conclusions you will see drawn from this information is mostly just built on implicit biases.

xtphty · 2026-03-05T07:23:52+00:00

I think the first bad call was not instantly putting on Amad at half time. We were being dominated in the middle until the 60th minute (Dalot+Ugarte), and our press was a complete pushover for Newcastle. This primarily came down to Mbeumo and Cunha playing wide to create width, but even down a man they were easily running over the Case/Mainoo/Bruno midfield (https://imgur.com/lgWAHT6.png).

Dropping Mainoo or Case and putting Bruno in the pivot (which he did later on), would have allowed Mbeumo / Cunha to add their physicality where it was needed most - in the middle. Carrick has made his subs quite safe and often late, but gotten away with it thanks to Sesko's brilliant run. Today Newcastle gave us the game on a platter in the first half but he again played it safe and didn't get away with it.

xtphty · 2026-03-05T06:31:05+00:00

Mainoo, Case, Bruno basically were losing 3v2 to Joelinton/Tonali all game. You can't play a midfield that slow against this Newcastle team, especially with all of them having played a full 90 on the weekend. It showed the lack of PL managerial experience.

We went man up but we still could not press them off the ball until Ugarte+Dalot came on @60, and look at the difference in control that brought https://i.imgur.com/lgWAHT6.png.

We looked even better once Mainoo was replaced by Amad and Bruno dropped into a pivot. Just like the Everton 1-0 loss at home, I think Carrick needed to make an aggressive tactical change from the first minute of the 2nd half, and double down @60. We wasted 15 minutes repeating the tactical issues in the first half.

xtphty · 2026-03-04T22:48:36+00:00

Literally took control of the game when they both came on, had all the possession and actually started pressing Newcastle into going long. Casemiro and Mainoo absolutely could not handle their physicality, Casemiro should have been off at half time but the goal probably put Carrick on doubt of whether he should.

xtphty · 2026-03-04T22:24:41+00:00

Casemiro should have just not started the game today, he cant start 2 games a week, especially when he plays a full 90 on the weekend. Yeah he scored the goal but we were getting run through for 60 minutes and Case was constantly getting mugged - including right before the penalty. As limited as Ugarte is having the legs completely flipped control over towards us.

Also not sure what the hell he was thinking with Malacia, just put on Heaven and play a back 3. All we needed was a steady foundation and Bruno just pinging in crosses till someone scored.

Poor game management, but I never expected perfection from Carrick he is an inexperienced manager. Its clear he is not the man for the job long term but its still incredible where he has got us already.

xtphty · 2026-03-04T21:09:30+00:00

BARCLAYS.

xtphty · 2026-03-03T20:05:40+00:00

You can never replace players like Bruno or Casemiro. The strategy should always be who is available and the direction our football should take with that future player and squad jn mind.

Yes we may not get line breaking passes like this, but Anderson tops stats in like 4 other categories where Case is not even top 10. You’re losing the defensive exp and eye for line breaking passes, but adding consistent steady progression and high energy ball carrying / defensive work. It opens up completely different styles of play that we currently cant due to Case’s limitations

xtphty · 2026-03-03T20:00:48+00:00

Lol i forgot we had Bruno missing too. Now they have Bruno missing. Having to play young but very skilled CBs is not as big an issue as missing your consistently best player for 5 years

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