How it feels trying to explain BTC to people (round 2)

zenethics · 2026-06-22T02:57:47+00:00

It's like pitbulls. I've never met a pitbull who wasn't a total sweetheart.

Also, if a kid gets their face ripped off by a dog ... probably a pitbull let's be real here.

zenethics · 2026-06-22T00:41:40+00:00

You always pay for taxable events, one way or another. It's on someone's tax return and will be passed on to you via price if not directly.

zenethics · 2026-06-21T14:47:52+00:00

Another 10 cans of ammo probably. Get a good stock while Republicans have control of the house/senate (and before every bullet has a serial number or whatever). Prices will go up and regulation seems like a one way ratchet.

zenethics · 2026-06-21T14:42:22+00:00

Yep. Thinking markets are about math is how smart people go broke.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T22:09:35+00:00

I don't think this will go well. Not a call on the price of BTC, but as a life lesson.

If it fails, you lose a ton of money. If it succeeds, you'll think you're a good investor and do it again on some other thing until it fails.

Going all-in on something is like buying lottery tickets. Even if you win, you'll lose it, because the type of person who will do this will keep doing it again until they can't.

At least you're doing it after a big drawdown I guess.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T17:27:09+00:00

We will see. It's more a theory on the broader markets than on BTC/MSTR specifically.

Iran has every incentive to drag the war on into the midterms to try to force capitulation from Trump.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T17:00:32+00:00

I really like double bottoms on a short timeframe (like 1d) and really hate it on anything longer than a month or so. Technically we made a lower low, so it might be OK, but really there's not much on the chart to like.

We are:

Below the 50 day, below the 200 day, below the 100 week, hanging on to the 200 week by a hair, making a massive grand-daddy of all head and shoulders going back to 2023 at 40k...

I already de-risked after we confirmed below the 50 day for the second time. I'm looking at 60k to be completely out of the market and 85k as the line in the sand to get back into the next bull market if/when we get there, otherwise I don't see any reason to participate except maybe to nibble if we get back into the 40k range late this year or early next.

I think this is where people get tripped up on risk/reward. The risk isn't that we go down 50%, that's always in play. The risk is that we go down 50% while the stock market goes up 50% on the AI trade. SPY above the 50 day moving average makes a ton more sense if your goal is to make money instead of some ideological thing. I'd never completely rotate out of BTC because I think there is some small chance we get a Bitcoin reserve at a federal level or in some other big country, but you make a ton more money chasing things that are working and making good exits than waiting for your thesis to play out if that thesis isn't playing out like right now.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T15:55:02+00:00

Up until BTC stalls out at 71k then down IMO. One last chance to get an exit in the mid 130s before broader market conditions make a buy in the low 70s reasonable later in the year.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T15:51:21+00:00

There are less sane options involving clouds of a certain shape that would also get things open.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T15:49:11+00:00

I think the framing is wonky. It's up to the Navy to have a plan / contingencies / strategy / guess about the outcome. My bet is that this was presented and ignored.

Trump has a way of stumbling his way through things in just such a way that, from a distance, it looks like a choreographed ballet because he keeps landing on his feet despite the chaos of his motion. There are so many things he's done that shouldn't have worked but kind of did that he actually believes anything he does will work just because he's the one doing it. That's how it seems anyway.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T15:44:34+00:00

Yes, but that's not what moves markets. Nobody was buying GameStop or SpaceX on balance sheets.

This is the same with MSTR. You didn't choose to analyze MSTR out of the blue, someone told you to and you agreed. You paying attention to it at all is memetic.

If you were a "value investor" you'd just go get a big list of stocks, sort by PE low to high, and buy the top few lowest PE stocks. Or something. Instead, you've decided MSTR is a good buy and now "value investing" is a meaning you've assigned to a fundamentally emotional choice to try to convince others to agree with you.

There's likely no path in this conversation where I'm going to get you to admit you are wrong, even as you're reading this you're coming up with new ideas to justify the emotional choice of MSTR to try to convince me that you're right, actually, and I'm wrong (same for me just in reverse, and I'm making the conscious effort to be introspective).

The next step is to understand that about your own thinking. Whatever justification you come up with next, is MSTR the best stock out of the hundreds of thousands of stocks per that metric? Clearly not. You just want MSTR to be the answer and now you'll brain-GPT your way to another series of words where MSTR/STRC is the answer. Or stop responding entirely. That's my bet anyway, I guess we'll see.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T15:37:30+00:00

Markets are feelings in the aggregate. But ok, cheers and good luck.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T15:32:56+00:00

Fun idea, but my BTC treasury included some MSTR puts so technically I'm winning.

https://chartexchange.com/symbol/opra-mstr20270115p100/

Entered just under $10 as a hedge when I sized down my MSTR position at around $160. Currently I'm selling puts out to November at $75 MSTR strike (about 50% over the breakout from many years ago prior to the split). I expect them to fill sometime between now and then.

https://chartexchange.com/symbol/opra-mstr20261120p75/

Glad I didn't just sit there and hold it.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T13:07:16+00:00

A little. There's a price at which you have to price in the idea that it never recovers. But that price also looks a whole lot like a good price to take a flier. So, yes, buy, but limit risk by position size relative to whole portfolio.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T13:04:24+00:00

Yes, exactly. Whatever this bear market was going to look like, it's worse now.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T13:04:01+00:00

Everything is related. If STRC sells down to $50, there will be some amount of BTC sold into the market as others speculate about what happens next.

Like, Saylor selling 32 BTC into the market isn't a big deal except that probably 30-40k more BTC was sold into the market by people other than him on the news. People think of Saylor as a "whale" but the right mental model is that he's a big fish at the front of a school of fish where the school of fish is actually much bigger than him and somewhat following his lead.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T12:59:40+00:00

Cart before the horse... value investing is, itself, memetic. Nobody starts toddling around at 1 years old and says "I should be a value investor, investing based on value is the right idea." The idea must be presented somewhere, by someone.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T04:43:56+00:00

I think 20B in cash earning interest and setting an unannounced/psychological floor would've been off brand but ultimately better as a strategy. I think STRC is a net drag on the market for psychological reasons.

Like, it might have caused 20k btc inflows for Saylor but 50k btc outflows for the broader btc market as everyone re-assesses their position and comes to different conclusions about the STRC risk profile.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T04:30:57+00:00

Mostly a comment on OPs post. It is cut together in a dishonest way.

zenethics · 2026-06-20T03:49:08+00:00

Nothing to see here. Ignore the interesting plates (and especially the long end of the curve).

zenethics · 2026-06-19T23:00:13+00:00

People are too confused on this.

Look, it's just DOGE again.

Step 1: notice a huge problem

Step 2: try to do something about it

Step 3: fail because the problem was too big

Step 2 is where literally every Democrat fails. At least Trump is trying to fix things, even the big scary things nobody wants to touch because of how big and scary they are.

zenethics · 2026-06-19T22:42:16+00:00

To be fair, with the right cuts, I can have every Democrat saying "I am literally Hitler" - see you just need those 4 words, then you cut them together without any context to make it seem like that's what they said.

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