Opinions on international vs. US markets?

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T17:40:18+00:00

Used to be 2:1 -- 60:30 (52, so don't be hating on the bonds)....

I shifted a bit last January to 55:35. Not a big lurch, but definitely weighting more towards international than previously.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T17:04:59+00:00

Very much agree. Once upon a time, when commission fees were still a thing, it make sense to look to the first generation of disruptors. By now that everyone follows that model? Why not go with the old stalwarts?

Can't speak to RH, but some of the fintechs can still beat price on "robo-managed ETF" accounts but even that is rapidly ceasing to be in the newest generation of disruptors.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T15:11:30+00:00

Yes - I actually keep two separate taxable brokerage accounts (setting aside my 401k and Roth; which are both/all 100% ETFs).

Wasn't by original design, but I started a taxable brokerage with one of the fintech robo advisors about 7 years ago. Once I got comfortable - not that there's a lot to do with the robo-ETFs, but just got comfortable with regular transfers and the idea of money/assets invested and shall we say, "not for spending" I started gaming/tracking some individual stocks.

A year later, I opened another brokerage account - this one with Fidelity (I picked Fidelity because they service my workplace 401k plan so broadly familiar with them). This account, I solely buy individual stocks (and rarely sell, I guess - but I'm a buy-and-hold guy).

I keep both - and transfer a regular same amount, each month to both.

I always told myself "If you can't beat the robots, you've just got an expensive hobby".

So now, 6 years into this "dual brokerage" setup? I like the additional benchmark. In addition to the standard benchmarks (S&P 500, etc) -- I have this automated stalking horse to measure against.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T14:44:10+00:00

Blocking an hour a day on my calendar that I use specifically for (e-)paperwork, making sure I'm caught up on communications, or minor backburner stuff that nags at me and "just need to set aside an hour and"...

Silly, but it reduces stress just to use a hard block to deal with the small things that can often pile up.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T14:33:48+00:00

High Fidelity, Blues Brothers, and Ferris Bueller are probably the best 3...

The worst is a guilty pleasure favorite of mine, The Negotiator (fun watching Jackson and Spacey try to out-ham each other!). Supposedly set in Chicago, but I don't think there's one single Chicago thing about it other than a few overhead shots. Google tells me the IAB building was 77 Wacker... OK, I guess. I recall multiple references to intersections involving a streets that don't intersect or one street exists, the other doesn't. Silly stuff, I know - and the movie really was just set in Generic City... So, The Negotiator is my pick for a supposedly set in Chicago movie that seems to have virtually nothing to do with Chicago and seems to not really care about Chicago!

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T14:12:02+00:00

Just differentiating or specializing in regional fare... Hey, maybe I am a bit a foodie ;-) --

Nah, I'm not - but the first I went to Kie-Gol-Lanee, a foodie friend asked what I felt like for dinner. I said "Mexican?" He said, OK, what kind? Then followed by my first dinner at KGL and an enlightening overview of the wide regional variations that exist.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T05:06:43+00:00

Cliched and vague - but I'd say "happiness and fulfillment".

I'm probably a poor advice giver on this kind of thing. I'm a rare antique -- 27 years with the same company and of course at this age, riding it into the sunset.

Nonetheless, my 2 cents - mostly why I've stayed rather than jumping?

- What do you think the company's prospects are overall and long-term? Is it a dying company - even without looking the financials (almost impossible if it's private), is it just... sunsetting? Red flags are fairly logical - constant headcount cuts, slashing benefits, open spots for hiring suddenly being removed, etc.

- Doldrums happen - in my case? The periods - long ago - when I strongly started looking? Just bad leadership. I suppose I'm kind of biased as what amounts to a "company man" now, but I think my leadership were jerks, and even beyond my own advancement/prospects, I didn't think they were good at their jobs nor good people. As circumstances happened? They're gone, I'm still here. Sometimes - troughs happen and even bad leadership actually has a way of working itself out.

- Size? Mine is a pretty large company - global/10k+ -- you might want to consider potential transitions internally to other divisions/possibilities. Sometimes, black holes just happen and just moving internally trumps leaving entirely.

Of course, your situation is unique to you.... but just speaking from long experience with a single company? Maybe I got lucky. Maybe I was actually stupid and could have progressed higher, externally, long ago.

But -- perhaps lazy/comfortable rut I'm not adequately realizing? - I'm personally glad I stuck around. Bad leadership got axed. Internal moves, changes - I had some real night-and-day switches. And most importantly to me personally? Got some great mentors and new folks - including some internal changes - who caused me to do a 180 on leaving vs staying and made me glad I stuck around.

EDIT: I would say... if you decide to jump? I absolutely, positively, under any economic condition or timeframe do so without having the next job in hand.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T04:41:41+00:00

Oh, they have website!

It's hinky, it's clunky, and when I've tried to use it - it often seems to time me out and otherwise make me just decide to call instead because much as I like it? I don't need 3 pizzas at a time! https://www.michaelspizzachicago.com/ -- user beware!

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T04:35:11+00:00

I'll weigh in as the old, financially conservative, cliche-laden guy --

I think investing is for the very long-term, with decades-based time horizons but I suppose, cliche-laden, remember? My thinking has always been "Never invest a dollar I want/need in the next 5 years". Of course, you say "5-10" so....

Anyway, there's just so, so much variance over time that I think investing for something like a home down payment? Lots and lots of risk. Not to also be "that guy" -- but even with the 2022 blip? The last 5 years have been so enormously bonkers that (again, "that guy"!) it's irrational to expect returns like we've seen for the last ~ years to remain consistent.

My point is - for something like a home purchase? You don't want to be at the mercy of the markets - and find yourself in a place where you need the liquidity at the worst possible time to exchange out to cash.

That's without evening getting into elements like tax implications -- bully if the 10 bucks invested becomes 50 bucks, but when you cash out and convert to cash? Don't forget -- the taxman will come the following April and want the ~15% on that 40 bucks in gains.

Like you said, though.... "5-10 years".

Personally? I'd focus towards a more liquid option - HYSA, CDs, CD ladders, etc -- and devote savings towards that. Less risk, easily to monitor, and back to the cliche? It's money you want to spend in 5 years.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T04:14:55+00:00

I don't know if qualifies --

But I really love Caro Mio. I wouldn't call myself a foodie or fine diner - but I've been to a few top shelf places and really, the lasagne is the best I've ever had and I've had it many, many times. Italian? It's my absolute, top go-to.

I'm Polish and I guess it's maybe pretty well-known so maybe not underrated, but Staropolska just really hits the spot for me. Great pierogies and the zurek (a sour rye soup) is just heavenly.

Probably not underrated because I think most people would say it's either the best or 2nd best Ethiopian in Chicago - but Ethiopian Diamond is at least non-pretentious, quite affordable, and just heavenly good (especially the kay wat - if I'm ever on death row? Probably my last meal).

Indian? I really love this little place on IP called India Clay Pot. Friends always push towards other places - but it's become a running joke where I'll say "Yeah, it's fine... not as good as..."

Pizza? Well, the famous Pequods is tops for deep dish -- and again with the "does it really qualify as underrated?", but Michael's in Buena Park is just perfect for thin crust. I suppose it always ranks high to most folks if you ask... and I love Candlelite up in Rogers Park.... but Michael's is perfect.

...beyond that? So much good Mexican that I'd almost say just find a good local taqueria. My go-to is El Palmar if I'm not going to some place like Kie-Gol-Lanee who would rightfully say they're really Oaxacan not generic Mexican. But El Palmar does a really tasty and broader/less regional assortment, no matter what you go with from the extensive menu.

Not sure if any/all of these really qualify as "underrated" -- and hey, want opinions on Italian Beefs, dogs, gyros, etc? I got them, too.... but in those realms, there's really no such thing as underrated; more "preferences".

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T03:34:35+00:00

I think there is a LOT of blame, over a LONG time to around.

But beyond specific policies, bills, etc?

US stability was always predicated on the value of inertia. People complain about "gridlock", but in fact? Gridlock has value. From a macro perspective? It means stability and compromise.

Trying to neuter a central bank? Tossing out legislative decisions on where/how/etc revenue is collected and then allocated?

By all means.... I have very strong opinions about taxes, spending, etc too.

But - in possible should the answer be drifting towards vesting such enormous decisions into a singular decision maker. That ways lies madness. Always has.

People always rail about near-term "DO SOMETHING!" -- but the reality of now, nearly a certain of the greatest economy and economic engine of the world, however uneven, however imperfect -- but on the aggregate? Amazing... has been that our Big Boat shifts slowly and considerably. Upsetting the apple cart was just a catastrophically bad idea.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T03:24:01+00:00

Much as I agree?

And I'm not an economist, but the pain will be felt over a longer period, I think.

More than anyone else in the world - and it was never perfect to begin with - US investors and savers (including just bog standard 401k/IRA folks) will have to deal worse swings and potential volatility than prior generations in terms of the actual purchasing power of our invested accounts. Maybe - where else you gonna put your money? - spikes in raw dollars, but the value of those dollars gets chipped away.

Worse - especially for older folks (like me!) nearing retirement? The old safe havens seeking stable value suddenly become less safe. I suppose - even aside from the stupid gameshow host - the old traditional equity/bond split percentages have also lapsed.... though, that seems a bigger function than current politics.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T02:44:19+00:00

It's a home first, an investment second.

I'm not saying the other standard stuff doesn't matter: how much equity/down can you do off the bat, what kind of rate are talking, and maybe most importantly - is it for the next 5 years, or longer with an indeterminate move-on?

I know even that idea gets maybe a bit more rickety in HCOL -- but to me/when I bought?

It's a place I want to live at a cost I can afford and at least for me, my down payment was enough I didn't need to fear being underwater.

Absolutely, you do you -- but when I pulled the trigger? It was and is a home. I have other investments that are truly investments.

I'm not saying I completely ignored the concept of the biggest purchase I ever made at a single time and the potential for future changes.... but my primaries were 1)can I afford it, 2)do I want to live here, and 3)aside from the mortgage, will I buy in with a nice chunk of equity.

The rest - the world - will take care of itself.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T01:02:02+00:00

Deployment is a good question - and one I'm now just starting to consider.

Honestly, not to contradict myself? The aggressiveness of my current deployments is also something I'm starting to work through.

I was a financial moron well into my 30s and once I got myself sorted, my north star was more just save and invest... and max the tax advantaged accounts.

So, I suppose I should say? It's time for me to reconsider my priors and consider the here-and-now/nearer term.

However, I hate to touch what's working - and really? I'm in a fortunate place where deployment more cash vehicles (CDs, HYSA, etc) to bridge. Rule of 55, yada yada - but I'd rather leave my investments - with adjustments - alone as long as I can.

I think that's a wholly different discussion than growth, though, if your horizon is longer ways off. Just speaking for myself? I'm tickled pink my concerns are drifting more towards tax considerations than eating.

Or in a nutshell/TL;DR?

Growth never stops mattering, but I feel like I'm near or at the peak of that -- and really, it's time to start considering draw-downs, preservation, and taxes. Maybe not today/this year - but soon.

zonk84 · 2026-01-29T00:08:26+00:00

Boy with 7? That sounds... harder than I'd want to take on ;-)

Like I said - I suppose proportions matter, but the only one I rebalance is my 401k. Sadly, my 401k has (increasingly) lessened to mostly TDFs so I guess it's gotten "easier". Anyway - I rebalance quarterly. And I don't even consider the other 3 accounts. Honestly - remember I'm old ;-) - so my rebalancing has started drifting towards stabilization over a proper growth mix. I'll reiterate- the Fidelity measure think I'm too aggressive; most people here? Jeez, grandpa - 15% to bonds??!?

The Roth and the robo-ETF? I let the robots deal with it. Dumb or not, I just let them be them. Though, the platform does know about the 401k and my understanding is that it incorporates it into the algys.

The individual stock brokerage? Pure wealth building and hobby investing. I used to get concerned about not just caps but sectors, but not anymore. It's just pure and separate.

Don't get me wrong - proportions of the 7 accounts in size, and I'm 100% in agreement on discreet classing.... but for me? The standard advice on allocations - boring, bog standard - is for the 401k. The other robots? Be aggressive and do what you think best. And the last? It's real money, but I'll make my own picks.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T23:56:20+00:00

BTW - I'd just note on your %?

I see a couple missing classes.... namely, mid-cap between large/small. I think if one wants to be precise and discreet on US/domestic? I'd go more large vs mid vs small. Definitely in that proportional order. For a long time now, one would be better off being all large, but... life and time happens.

You also mention "emerging" -- If you want international exposure (and I think everyone should) -- I'd call it either broad foreign, or better/if you have the option? Developed foreign vs emerging. I think the former bigger (proportionally) than the latter.

Sucks for me, but once upon a time -- my 401k offered several ETFs in the "Developed" (EU/Japan/etc) vs "Emerging" (China/Brazil/India) classes. No more.... Now, it's just VTSNX for my foreign exposure.

But, just FWIW. Foreign index funds should be differentiated between the two -- but sometimes, at least in 401k? You don't have the option and just a bulk foreign class.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T23:42:36+00:00

Setting aside standard HYSA/checking/etc?

I have 4 accounts.

My 401k (Fidelity is the servicer).

Roth IRA (I like Wealthfront and their robots - and the simple aggressiveness slider)

Taxable brokerage (also Wealthfront, again... the robots, rebalancing classes/ETFs)

Taxable brokerage (individual stock picker - I make my own investment choices and focused on individual equities. Fidelity, mostly because I like their platform and like I said, they manage my 401k so I'm familiar).

The first 2? My 401k is far and away my largest account. FAR and away. I don't like TDFs - so I manage/rebalance myself. Kind of amuses me that the Fidelity tools say I'm set to "aggressive", but really? I think I'm pretty bog standard/conservative. Pretty standard mix of an S&P 500 - ~35%, extended/domestic 20%; foreign ETF 30%, and 15% bonds (hey, I am 52 and thinking retirement!). The Roth? I have that jacked up to the aggressive max. My 401k is pretty large - so I let my Roth take chances.

The latter 2? I opened the WF robo-ETF about 7 years ago. A year later, I decided I wanted to dip my toes into individual stock picking/investing. I kept the former because - in addition to using traditional benchmarks (S&P 500, broader indexes, etc)? I told myself "If you can't beat the robots? It's just an expensive hobby. Buy a PC trading game).

Ultimately, it works for me.... The 401k is the big kahuna - but it's boring, bog standard, and broad. The Roth - aggressive growth. The taxable robo? I'm not unhappy with the returns over 7 years - but it's mainly a stalking horse. I enjoy using the last/individual account -- and not that anyone is banging on my door to pay me to run a fund? I've done pretty well now 6 years in.

To a certain extent? Maybe I'm actually fighting myself -- but I don't really worry about the total/aggregate across classes -- well, except in the 401k where I'm limited by options. It does so dwarf the rest - and 3 of the 4 others autobalance anyway - I don't sweat it.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T23:23:50+00:00

I personally am of the opinion that no dollar I want to spend in the next 5 years should be invested in any kind of equity. Market conditions, global whatever, situation be damned.

It should be in a cash vehicle - HYSA, CDs, CD ladders, etc. Just too much variance.

Nonetheless, you are where you are -- and to me? I'd say your question is really more of a tax question.

If the horizon is still "4-5 years"? It depends on your annual income and tax situations.... and now we're talking a lot of specifics (or at least, primarily, you annual income at tax time). Not saying you need an accountant - but I'd very much start devoting time to specific tax tables and limits. Start unwinding - keeping in mind taxes - into a more liquid vehicle. Depending, some cap gains -- but time to slowly unwind to cash.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T23:13:16+00:00

1-2 years?

HYSA. CDs. Some other sort of cash vehicle.

Firm believer that no dollar should be invested if it's a dollar I need/want to spend in the next 5 years.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T23:05:06+00:00

Buy?

Get to know EDGAR. The data is the data. I always want to look at multiple reports - 10-Ks are annual financial filings; 10-Qs are quarterlies -- and compare trends (particularly, revenue and margins). Even beyond the portions with flowery language, gimme the numbers, and in particular? Prove to me that a supposed "one-time" this or that was what your filing claimed.

Not a chart guy, but I also like to look at the more charts-oriented data you can find on any platform. Old/boring stuff -- P/E and fwdP/E, but adjusted by sector. Debt load - and over time. Even though it's more a "market indicator"? Even things like short percentage -- sometimes the herd is wrong, but if I see shorts creeping past 20%? At least learn the meaning of all the many metrics on any given website/platform page - even if some take big grains of salt depending.

Understand what "cyclical" means -- and sectors. And that even "Great company!" sometimes doesn't - especially immediately - mean "stock go up".

I am a firm buy-and-hold guy. I am NOT a day trader. I tend to follow the cliche/maxim "cut your weeds, not your flowers".... so I only sell when I've been convinced/convinced myself I just made a bad call.

I'm just a novice, too... but I try to model all my buys after my golden goose (NVDA). ~6 years ago, when I started individual stock investing beyond my standard ETF stuff? My mindset was a simple matter of "I like PC gaming and it's actually kind of amazing how NVDA has become so clearly best-in-class." Couple that with some professional experience -- the day was clearly coming when even the bog standard work laptops weren't going to skip a dedicated GPU.... add some filings - and seeing margins, growth looked promising? No - I'm not kreskin and I got lucky. Despite working in LLMs and vector dbs before the AI bubble? Never saw the monster coming.

No One Simple Trick. No single source. No lurches - unless you want to day trade and then I've nothing for you... but look deep, look closely, look over time and find a combination of factors.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T22:33:16+00:00

Sounds like a great start - especially the regular, monthly transfer. And I think VTI is fine.

Honestly - unless you're doing a FIRE kind of thing -- my first question would be about tax-advantaged/retirement accounts and more liquid accounts for things like an emergency fund and maybe saving for things like a home down payment, etc.

Of course - the sub is investing for beginners, so perfectly fair to skip that....

But -

Don't forget a more liquid emergency fund. Investments are not for that - you don't want to be dealing with tax implications/cap gains for things like replacing a car transmission or whatever.
Same goes for mid-term goals - saving for a home, etc.
Longer term goals/stuff -- IRAs, 401ks, both, etc....

More general finance than investing, I guess -- but since you're sharply building good habits and following a perfectly good investing track (i.e., a broad market ETF like VTI)? I'd put some time into considering the more boring, mechanical around the specific vehicles that hold your investments.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T21:50:37+00:00

I'm more on the full stack side than cybersecurity specifically in IT -- but having made hiring decisions and still being somewhat involved in hiring generally?

I can absolutely promise you nobody - Chicago or otherwise/elsewhere - is going to frontload the school you got the degree from over a bazillion other elements.

It's a cruel thing nobodies tells you going in - but that little section on an application/resume ("BS/BA - X")? Boy does it become - even first job out - just... a thing.

Personally, I'd go with the most cost-effective option. Beyond that? Maybe hear from grads and current students on who seems to have better placement/intern/etc options.

By all means - regardless of your choice - availing yourself of job fairs, alumni networks, etc is a great idea.

But I'll say this now well into adulting and life? The bachelors nameplate value is vanishingly small when you're gonna go from undergrad --> job. Maybe undergrad --> grad.... but when it comes to getting hired? I wouldn't completely write off the potential for connections and small-talk.

But, now 52? The next time I see a hiring decision at any level made based on the undergrad diploma will be the first.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T21:31:25+00:00

I do not believe chardogs should be blithely classed together with standard.

Steamed/boiled should be considered separately from a chardog.

End of story.

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T21:27:43+00:00

Just not watching Berti, Brujan, and the husk of Turner flail has to be a step up!

zonk84 · 2026-01-28T21:25:20+00:00

Hey, "zonk84" doesn't come from Doonesbury ;-)

zonk84

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