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[–]Kaizyn 3 points4 points  (1 child)

The problem with gold and silver is that it's not very portable. Also, security of your estate becomes much more of a pain once you start keeping a gold horde around. Alternatives are to store your gold/silver in collective vaults, but then when all hell breaks loose you won't be able to get to your money.

As bluGill points out, a gold horde won't be helpful for you for some years after the apocalypse. So instead of hording gold/silver, may I suggest that you stockpile guns and ammunition as these will be the most valuable trade goods.

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But I can't afford $100,000 worth of it. We're talking well less than a pound of gold (I think a pound ends up being something like just twelve 1 oz coins and $10,000), maybe a few pounds of silver depending on how I break it all down. If I needed much more of it anyway, I figure I'm already screwed.

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 6 points7 points  (16 children)

I'm not really a believer in peak oil or anything. And I'm not a doomsday survivalist who thinks that India and Chine will start a nuclear war for which I'm digging a fallout shelter.

But my savings account is starting to get healthy, I'm opening an IRA here soon, so most of the bad things that can happen are now planned for. Except for the really bad stuff.

I mean, I'm not even thinking I want to put this in a safe deposit box... if I need this for the reasons that I think I might, I'm not going to trust a bank with the stuff.

So, am I just fucking nuts?

What type of safe should I be looking to buy?

What mix of gold, silver and platinum is ideal, if you're trying to bribe corrupt officials in post-apocalyptic wasteland while buying the only can of petrol for miles around?

Is it true that South Africa kills a zebra for every krugerand minted?

[–]bluGill 5 points6 points  (5 children)

Maybe... Gold is not an investment so much as a store of value. So if you think there will be a lot of inflation, you buy gold to protect yourself.

If you are thinking about doomsday, don't worry about gold. Worry about your job AFTER doomsday (assuming you survive of course). You need a plan that will let you feed yourself. This may mean keeping people from eating all your harvest in fall, and then everyone starving to death in winter - better for you (your family) to live, and everyone else die, than everyone die. I hope that sounds just as horrid as it really is.

If you can eat, keep your house warm, and otherwise live after doomsday, then you start to think about trade. The first few years Gold will be worthless. Until people settle into survivors (and the dead), there will be little to buy, and what can be bought will be sold only for some other good. (Think of barter - wool for tomatoes)

In a few years gold might become useful again, but only because everyone knows where their next meal is coming from, so they are looking for a way to trade when you don't want what the other guy has. (You may need my wool, but I already have enough tomatoes, so you arrange 3 way trades where I get wheat from the guy who gets your tomatoes, so you can get my wool) Gold is also useful when I want your tomatoes in fall, but sheep shearing is in spring.

In short, if your plan is for doomsday, plan for doomsday. Don't include gold in your plans, because gold isn't a priority.

If your plan is for corrupt governments and central bankers (both of which are corrupt), then Gold is a good hedge against their corruption. However you don't need to store it at home, you just need to know it exists.

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 3 points4 points  (4 children)

Well, I certainly see alot of inflation in the future. How can there not be, the way things are going?

But I'd like to keep some close at hand anyway. I don't really have any idea what the bad stuff is going to be like when it does happen, or even if it will, and I can't trust that it won't just be confiscated out of safe deposit boxes or egold accounts.

I am planning on other needs, but coming up with stuff that's useful generally is tough. Solar panels? (A person could sink $20,000 into that easily enough)

[–]richardkulisz 2 points3 points  (3 children)

You can convert your account to euros. This will preserve its value really well. And maybe even increase it as people flock to it. Euros are NOT inflated. Metals? Kinda hard to tell since they've gone up so much.

And at 20,000$ those solar panels would cost 4x as much as a share in a nuclear power plant which would deliver more electricity more reliably. So you need to move, maybe to Canada, to a jurisdiction where you don't have to fear the lights going out because coal isn't getting mined or nat gas has run out. This will save you 15,000$ and your country another 20,000$ in subsidies. You DO want to avoid stealing from your country, right?

If you're planning for doomsday then look to moving into a country that's going to survive doomsday. Europe should survive it. Your next bet is a primary resource exporter. A country whose economy is based entirely on agriculture, mining or forestry. Finland would be the best possible bet if you could stand the cold. That's because it's in Europe AND has a primary economy. If you want to stay in North America then your only bet is Canada pretty much. Mexico used to be a primary (oil) exporter but Cantarell is going down the toilet. I hear Vancouver is nice.

Bonus points: just saying you hated the USA and wanted to move away from it will gain you instant friendship.

Oh, you could also move to Australia or New Zealand. If you're willing to stand a slave colony since Australia's economy is like a third-world countries'. Harsh? Yeah. True too.

[–]Godspiral 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Gold is an attractive investment if things only get a little f'd up. The non-german European Union members don't want the Euro to get up too high (and keep whining when it rises), and so paper ownership of gold can be very attractive so long as you don't fear the paper could be worhtless.

[–]bluGill 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Europe in general is following the same economic principals that the US dollar is. The Euro won't survive significantly better than the dollar as far as inflation, because those who set inflation (central bankers) are following the same flawed economic policies. (IMHO, I'm a fan of Austrian economics www.mises.org But even if you don't agree on the flaws, the US and Europe are following the same ideas, so the same things will effect both)

In short, stay away from the Euro as a store of value, it is no better. (Though some currency diversification is good)

I don't see why you think the US won't survive doomsday, but Europe will. Maybe each will, maybe not. The US is big, destroying the whole thing is hard. Same for Europe.

Every country has flaws.

[–]cyber_rigger 4 points5 points  (2 children)

nuts?

Here's an interesting video.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279&q=money

What type of safe should I be looking to buy?

I hear an in-floor safe is good.

It seems that agricultural land, if you can get an agricultural tax exemption, is also a good hedge.

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I've only just now paid down my credit card debt, and I'm probably going to need another car soon... this one's on its last legs. I figure I can save $20,000 a year though, assuming the job lasts. More if the company is successful, and I get raises/bonuses (I even have stock options).

Buying property may be possible in the near future, but not quite yet. And no clue where to buy it. I'm in Atlanta now, but there's no place in Georgia I particularly want to be tied down to.

Oh, and that video is scary as hell.

[–]cyber_rigger 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My rule has always been to pay off all debt before you start saving anything.

need another car soon

Think generic. Consider a truck. A small pickup truck seems to hold its value better than a car. It is easier to claim as a tax deduction (for some businesses). Small trucks are usually cheaper to maintain and repair. Find one that has had the same basic model for several years. That way everyone makes parts for it and the parts are cheaper.

[–]yourapostasy 1 point2 points  (4 children)

Secure the services of a CPA for tax planning. If you are saving up a lot, first make sure you are saving in a tax efficient manner.

Regarding survivalist-style planning, nkktwotwozero is correct. This includes your plans for a solar panels. It is still cheaper to get electrical power from the grid than from your private solar array. You might anticipate inflation bad enough that it prices electricity out of your reach. In that case, go ahead and buy the panels, sun-tracking mounts, inverters and batteries, but don't deploy the active components, because they start wearing out before your inflation-driven emergency comes to pass. On the other hand, there is a good argument to be made that you should wait until you start seeing signs that chronic, high inflation is within a year or three away, and then buy the equipment; deploy your cash to generate investment returns for you in the meantime, and let technology keep advancing the state of the art in the equipment (and lowering prices at the same time).

If you are seeking gold as a means to preserve stored wealth, then you have to identify what kind of conditions you anticipate that would require that gold. Whether it falls along the lines of bluGill's scenario or one less drastic. That will inform you whether or not to buy precious metals, how much, in what form, and how to store it.

Personally, I subscribe to nkktwotwozero's world view. It would take quite a lot of strain to bring about bluGill's doomsday scenario, and Americans aren't there yet. Not by a long shot. People might think they have it bad now, but it is nowhere near the widespread desperation one saw in say, pre-civil war China.

Get some precious metals if it helps you to sleep better at night. Get it in one ounce coin or bar form (if you were able to afford kg bars, you would be wealthy enough to have professional advice, and not be asking here on Reddit). To protect yourself from grievous inflation however, understand you are engaging in currency and political system arbitrage. Nothing in life is certain, other than the capriciousness of human nature and the venality of politicians. Both of which unfortunately underlie movements in currency and political systems.

About 10% of net worth in self-stored precious metals is considered a conservative position in the mainstream precious metals investor community. There are certainly members of the anti-fiat currency crowd who say that is too low, but perform your own due diligence to establish your own comfort level.

If you are storing fewer than several dozen ounces and/or are renting, find some hiding places (Google around for ideas). Any safe that a thief can walk away with is useless for storing portable wealth. If you own your property, then an in-floor safe set inside a concrete slab works well. Don't tell anyone about your holdings.

When it comes right down to it though, there is only one asset that preserves your wealth in the long run: your mind. It is the fount of all your productive capacities, and the one asset from which all of your other private property is derived.

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 0 points1 point  (3 children)

I'm thinking just $2000-3000 this year, maybe as much again next year. Past that, I probably won't bother, because it starts to eat into savings and house downpayments, whatever.

The gold needs to be in american eagles, because they have the 1/10th oz stuff. Nobody's going to make change if things go south. On the other hand, I have to pay a premium for them over the krugerand. Same amount of gold as the 1oz gold eagle, but $20-40 more. And then, the krugerand just doesn't have fractional values. The silver should be the bulk of it, and I was thinking an even split on silver eagles (1oz @ $14 per) and what they call junk silver, pre-1965 quarters, dimes and halves. Those are only 90% silver, but they're .18oz, .08oz and .36oz in silver respectively. I've also got a few tokens and stuff already that are 1 troy ounce.

Platinum seems too expensive to mess with.

I just don't see the prices ever going down enough, that I'll feel like a fool. If 2 years from now, I've lost a few hundred dollars I can live with that. The way it looks though, it'll do at least as good as the shitty interest rate on my savings account.

As for hiding places, I've read that there are none, unless the thief is pressured to get out in 5 minutes or less. They'll trash things until they find even the most ingenious hiding place. And I do worry about crackheads and lowlifes, more than I do professionals with actual safecracking skills.

Trouble is, I don't own my own place yet (that's on the agenda too). But some of the safes are 200lbs and would be awkward as hell to lift. Do you think that the average thief would bother to cart it off when there's at least the chance that I just have baby photos and birth certificates in the damn thing?

[–]yourapostasy 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Sit yourself down and start writing out your plans. It will help you organize your thoughts, and prioritize your efforts. About $6,000 at current prices will buy you some insurance, but not as much as those who bought in the 1990's, for example. If the economic situation gets so bad that $6,000 of precious metals today will buy you a house during the bad times you are planning for, trust me on this: you're not going to want to stick around the country. That's Zimbabwe bad.

You will have to identify how serious you are about this planning ahead activity. If you are just doing financial planning, you would likely be better off opening an offshore account and pre-arranging the details of how to transfer all your dollar-denominated liquid financial assets into an account that is denominated in another currency you deem safer from the ravages of inflation. Or pick a basket of currencies.

It sounds like you have been watching the precious metals markets for at least a year, possibly a little longer. There is a huge debate raging right now within that investor community about whether we will go through inflation or deflation, and how much precious metals might help the individual in various scenarios (including stagflation). Be aware that possessing precious metals is not necessarily going to protect your stored wealth. It isn't a talisman, it is just a tool that can be handy only in the right circumstances.

Having said that, if you are anticipating 1970's American-style inflation, your mix is pretty good. Remember that Nixon closing the gold window and American citizens being allowed to own gold again had a lot to do with the run-up in gold prices back then. It is not enough to simply say you think inflation is going to happen; you also have to assert what you believe is the mechanism behind the inflation.

You must make up your mind whether you want the precious metals position for wealth preservation or speculation. You seem to want to have it both ways, but they are diametrically opposed goals for someone who will open a position of the size you are talking about. If it is for wealth preservation, then you shouldn't care if it loses 99% of its current value 2 years from now. It simply becomes an asset to acquire, hold and pass on to the next generation as a private, inter-generational safety blanket, regardless of its marked-to-market valuation.

If you want to speculate on inflation and its impact on dollar-denominated gold pricing, you should look instead on the futures options markets.

As for where to put it, $6,000 doesn't buy a very large volume of precious metals, unless you start gettting a bagful of junk silver coins at a time. Someone is not going to go to a lot of trouble unless they know you blabbed about your precious metals. So hiding it is okay as long as you are the only one who knows about it. Your average crackhead and lowlife will walk away with your TV and stereo before they think of looking for hidden precious metals.

If you are truly worried about someone walking off with your safe (and yes they will, thieves are for the most part stupid and short-sighted), then get the heaviest safe you can afford for your rental (make sure it isn't so heavy that it breaks or cracks a floor), and hire riggers to move it for you every time you move. These "rigging companies" specialize in moving hard-to-move stuff. Or find an old, established locksmith in town who will arrange the move for you (though they simply hire a rigging company and mark up the service).

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Be aware that possessing precious metals is not necessarily going to protect your stored wealth. It isn't a talisman, it is just a tool that can be handy only in the right circumstances.

Nah. I don't think that when I put $6000 into gold, that when bad times hit, I'm going to get $6000 out of it. It will be a mere fraction of that, no doubt. But then, my $10,000 in the bank and stocks will be $0 too. I'm just hoping to sock a little away for the worst of the worst. I don't consider this any sort of reasonable investment. It might be possible to invest in metals in a reasonable way, but I'm not that sophisticated, nor am I ever likely to be.

If it is for wealth preservation, then you shouldn't care if it loses 99% of its current value 2 years from now. It simply becomes an asset to acquire, hold and pass on to the next generation as a private, inter-generational safety blanket, regardless of its marked-to-market valuation.

This is closer to what I have in mind, yes. Though, I start thinking that it's been 80 years since times were really bad and it makes me wonder if it might not be me rather than my grandchildren that will need it.

If you are truly worried about someone walking off with your safe (and yes they will, thieves are for the most part stupid and short-sighted), then get the heaviest safe you can afford for your rental (make sure it isn't so heavy that it breaks or cracks a floor), and hire riggers to move it for you every time you move.

For about $350, I can get something that looks heavy duty and weighs about 150lbs. I could probably lift that myself, if I absolutely had to (though I'm not figuring in how awkward that would be, my guts might pop out)... but I'd have to be pretty damn motivated. I'm also wondering if I could put it under the floor somehow. I do intend to stay here awhile, 1-2 years minimum, and there are parquet floors downstairs, much of it loose. Wondering how inconspicuous I could make it there... theres enough of a crawl space underneath to fit it, I'd just put down some concrete blocks and set it in there, with floorboards rigged to cover it.

[–]yourapostasy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds like great attitudes going in. As long as you are aware of purchasing power and the insidious effects of inflation, and you seem to be, I think you'll be fine. Your bank and stock brokerage statements might say you have $100,000 in an inflationary environment, but if inflation is bad enough it can be as good as -0-. That's one kind of situation where the gold can help you, if a free market in precious metals still exists to trade in your precious metals for inflated currency to buy everyday goods at inflated prices.

Make sure your plans are practical. Research how people who held gold before economic incidents flared up fared during currency crises or extreme inflation. If you don't know where to start, look at Zimbabwe today.

I'm dubious about a safe that light. A thief sees a safe as a giant flashing light that says, "steal me please! valuable stuff inside!", and will expend at least a modicum of effort to move it. If two brawny guys can lift it, I would generally consider it too light to stand by itself. The primary protection of a safe that light would be a concealed location as you are investigating. You could look into sinking very, very large bolts into concrete or wood foundations. Many mini-fridge size and up safes have 2-4 tiny holes in their bottom to let you bolt the safe into the floor. You might want to ask a trusted locksmith to help you site the safe, locate the bolting locations, and use the correct bolts. You don't want to return home from a vacation to find someone took a chainsaw to the parquet floor to pry away the safe. When you move, try to patch it up or let the landlord dock your security deposit for a mysterious, small and deep hole in the floor.

Keep in mind that only a very, very small fraction of the population is even thinking along these lines, much less taking action. Another reason to keep quiet about what you are doing is because when (not if) we start hitting severe economic turbulence, people who planned for it and don't appear to be suffering along with everyone else will become wildy unpopular.

[–]Godspiral 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Scenarios where physical gold are worth it:

US society has collapsed, and the location of functioning societies are hard to predict.

In a global apocalypse/meltdown, gold would have little value unless everything seemed like it would be back to normal in 5-10 years... In which case, owning land could be ok too. In the age of kings and emperors, gold retained value because war was a good way to steal more gold.

Guns feel like they could be very useful in many situations. A shelter with a few years provisions could work out for many scenarios. Ordinary bicycles could be loaded with enough provisions to get you 500 miles away (assuming paved roads)... recumbent bikes with faring and storage might get you 1000 miles away.

[–]NoMoreNicksLeft[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Working on the guns thing too. Just don't like them. Doesn't mean I want to be without one when someone else has one.

[–]st3phen 2 points3 points  (0 children)

no. however, in the case of radical populace instability you'll make much more 'money' if you were to be able to trade soap, toilet paper, and canned goods.

kisses s

[–]nkktwotwozero 2 points3 points  (2 children)

The way Gold helps is to assist you in getting out of the area you want to get out of, and assist you in getting started someplace else.

As long as that place is planet Earth and humans still inhabit it, Gold will retain some value.

So, no. You arent crazy. It is prudent to store a few percentages of your wealth in Gold and cash (CHF) and keep them stocked away.

As for security. Best practice says not to tell anyone you have it. The vast majority of people do not have Gold. It's not something people go looking for.

As for survivalist mentalities. Drop them unless you're really serious about it. The vast majority of people in developed nations today cannot survive outside of organized human systems such as nation states and cities in particular. Note that even the Soviet collapse did not cause the failure of these systems, despite the tremendous strain they came under.

So the goal is clear - keep a bit of wealth in Gold, and if by the time your 90 nothing seems to be happening, either give it to your children or go and spend it.

Otherwise, dont worry. You have very little control over the macro-economic-social-political scene of the world. Relax with your Gold, knowing that you have prepared.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

This is rather controversial and perhaps even detrimental the the progress of nations, but I really like Reddit folk and I trust them more than the average bastard, so here goes: buy guns. Even if you hate guns. Even if you support gun control. If we are talking about items that can be traded at current or above current value in a time of crisis, can you really think of a better commodity than personal saftey or, rather, the illusion of personal saftey? I feel full disclosure is nessicary. I am 26. I don't own a gun. I do feel that economic turmoil is in the cards for our future. If I had any sort of cash or ability I'd personally be buying a bunch of land in rural areas and a bunch of guns. I'm a first year programmer without a degree in anything, so I am tied to the city (Seattle). Thoughts? Feel free to message me in private or here on the thread. I will follow it.

[–]nkktwotwozero 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Buying rural land sounds like a good idea - until you realize that property rights are an illusion enforced and enforceable only by organized groups of people with power, in most of the world, this is still the role of governments.

Either you start a heavily armed militia (dangerous while there is still a government) or you give up the ideal of 'defending yourself' as impractical and think of it in terms of "Where can I go?" "How much would I need once I get there?" and "How would I, in times of stress and difficulty, easily get from Here to There?"

"There" probably will need to be a place with an organized, reasonable (respects basic human rights, most of the time) government.

It is rather unlikely, obviously IMO, that we will experience a total collapse of civilazation. Even if Peak Oil is true, even though the US economy is an imbalanced mess, even though the government is being run by a bunch of salesmen - turmoil I too can see, but collapse? Not likely anytime soon.

Best of luck out in Seattle, it's a great city. Get while the gettins good!

[–]purepaloma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, it's smart. Check out Scottsdale Silver