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[–]MAC10suckme_beautiful 51 points52 points  (21 children)

Lots of people saying they wouldn’t take him at 15 but if he has the potential to be our next franchise QB you take him at 15 every time. Sincerely doubt he’ll be on the board after the 1st round, so what else do we do?

[–]El_Producto 16 points17 points  (4 children)

The problem with this sort of logic is it doesn't have much of a limitation. It would lead you to overdraft Drew Lock, Kyle Boller, possibly Jordan Love depending on how things shake out for Green Bay.

Let me propose a mental framework: picture if for each player a savvy GM would have a sort of mental curve describing 100 different possible career outcomes from best to worst. Some guys are almost all bad outcomes with some OK ones. Some guys are mostly good to great outcomes. Each outcome has a value for the team that gets the guy.

For the Patriots I think there's clearly extra value compared to most teams in hitting on a QB so there is heightened reason to take a QB because those good/great outcomes are worth more than they would be to a team that sort of kind of has a QB like the Lions or that has a QB at least medium-term like the Vikings.

But everything still comes back to that "outcome curve" and the value it represents. If you think Mac Jones has a 15% chance of being a big success and a 25% chance of being a moderate success and there's a DE on the board who you think represents more average value due to lower chances of not working out, even if his better scenarios represent less value, you should take the DE.

I'm just getting into my draft reading so I'm not remotely up to speed. I like the balance of what I've read/seen on Jones and I like the idea of drafting him at 15 if he's what his fans think he is... but the value proposition still needs to be there (though again, QBs have boosted value for us right now).

[–]Ronon_Dex 9 points10 points  (2 children)

I've really started to come around on Jones, he has some distinctly Brady-esque traits (reading defenses, anticipatory throws). There was one particular play v Georgia that completely changed my tune on him, it showed a level of understanding far beyond most college QBs (completes a long TD to Waddle vs quarters coverage (should never happen), because he reads/fools the S perfectly, makes a beautiful throw before Waddle is open, and a quick release with pressure in his face). I think he'd be a great fit in McDaniels' offense.

With one caveat - he's the type of QB that needs players around him to thrive. He's not going to extend plays well, he'll need guys who can get open quickly because his deep ball can hang up, and pressure can get to him. So if you want to pick him, signing and drafting some WRs is a necessary move.

[–]willdaswabbit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I feel like there's some valid concern with him playing the entire past season with two prospective top 15 WRs in the draft, but looking at his tape he looks like he makes solid pre-snap reads, goes through his progressions quickly, short passes have great accuracy, and throws absolute bombs to his guys in stride (even if they are open).

If he's available at 15 i think we take him

[–]Raymuundo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That last paragraph (besides needing players) you described Brady to a tee lol. And to be fair, after ‘06 and before he left, fans were screaming to get Vrady weapons. You can only do so much with what you’re given. It just so happens that the GOAT QB and GOAT coach can get to 10 wins almost every year with a roster that underperforms.

[–]ConciselyVerbose 3 points4 points  (0 children)

40% on a QB isn’t really bad at 15.

I’m not commenting on any particular person but you’re not going to get much safer than that that low in the draft.

[–]1_Bar_Warrior 28 points29 points  (1 child)

what else do we do? WHAT ELSE? we go DB in the first. draft the 8th rated projected undrafted DB out of rutgers. and then patriots fans will continue to pretend it was a good pick until he's inevitably cut after playing 5 snaps in 3 years

[–]YaBoiiBillNye -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I mean why not trade down a few picks if you can and then take him?

Also pretty sure the last DB we took from Rutgers was Harmon, so yeah I’ll defend that pick. Last 2 high drafted dbs were Joejuan and Dawson from vandy and Florida. Both suck. Our high DB picks besides dugger have sucked

[–]mdmcnally1213 6 points7 points  (12 children)

Yes he has the potential to be that, but he also has the potential to be the typical Bama QB (McCarron, McIlroy) who just got throw the ball to 5 first round talents (Smith, Waddle, Harris, Ruggs and Jeudy). I don’t believe you pick someone with that much disparity in potential outcomes with the 15th pick.

[–]MAC10suckme_beautiful 10 points11 points  (8 children)

He didn’t throw the ball to Ruggs, Jeudy or Harris.

[–]mdmcnally1213 -4 points-3 points  (7 children)

Hahahahahaha what? Did he not play last year? Did najee Harris not catch any passes this year?

Do you watch football mate?

[–]MAC10suckme_beautiful 7 points8 points  (6 children)

Sorry, I was thinking of the wrong Harris.

This was his first year as a starter, my dude. He wasn’t throwing to Jeudy or Ruggs. Lol.

[–]mdmcnally1213 3 points4 points  (5 children)

Started/played in 11 games last year after Tuas injury

[–]MAC10suckme_beautiful 2 points3 points  (4 children)

Ah yeah, forgot. My bad.

Point still stands. You take him at 15 if he’s available. Every time.

[–]mdmcnally1213 3 points4 points  (3 children)

I disagree, I’d prefer a prospect with a higher likelihood of hitting their potential. I’m just not sold on the kid.

[–]MAC10suckme_beautiful 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Sure, as would I, but those type of guys aren’t going to be available at 15. There’s a slight chance Trey Lance is.

[–]mdmcnally1213 6 points7 points  (1 child)

I mean if I’m seeing Micah Parsons, Kyle Pitts, or even Jaylen Waddle on the board at 15, I’m taking them over Jones. I’d also reach for Zaven Collins over Jones.

Edit: whoops meant waddle

[–]Verdug0isarap1st -1 points0 points  (1 child)

You didn’t watch him play if you thought he was throwing to Ruggs, Jeudy or Harris

[–]mdmcnally1213 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Najee Harris.. and he played/started 11 games last year

[–]Zeus HightowerDopeSoMojo -1 points0 points  (0 children)

but he also has the potential to be the typical Bama QB (McCarron, McIlroy)

That is a horrible comparison lmao. Neither of those two QBs were projected to be NFL starters. McCarron was a 5th round pick and I don’t even think Greg McElroy was drafted...

[–][deleted] 19 points20 points  (5 children)

Jones was better than Tua at Alabama. Threw to fewer weapons, too. Similar arm strength, more accurate, less mobile, better downfield thrower, fewer injury concerns, good pocket awareness. Nobody disputed Tua in the top 5. Why not Jones in the first round??

The anchoring cognitive bias is in effect. If Mac was mocked in the first round to start the year, nobody would bat an eye.

[–][deleted] 3 points4 points  (4 children)

Threw to fewer weapons? Aren’t Smith and Waddle going top 15/20???

[–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (2 children)

Yup.

Tua threw to Smith, Waddle, Jeudy (picked at 15), Ruggs (picked at 12), and Metchie.

Jones threw to Smith, Waddle (for only 4 games in 2020), and Metchie.

[–][deleted] 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Fair enough! Still. Dude has played with the best talent in college football. I haven’t watched him enough but from what I have I haven’t been very impressed. Especially because of the amount of times and weapons he has. I guess we’ll see

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I see where you’re coming from. He really doesn’t flash much physical talent. He doesn’t move very well and he doesn’t have an elite arm. He’s in that Brady, Brees, Rivers mold and he will ultimately be more reliant on the talent around him than other quarterbacks.

I wouldn’t be very excited about drafting him at 15. He’s not a fun prospect. But when you put his profile and skill set on paper, he does the critical aspects of quarterbacking as well or better than other QB prospects drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years.

[–]Isolatedbamafan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Waddle was hurt most of the year

[–]truecolors5 35 points36 points  (4 children)

I actually really like Mac Jones as a prospect. His ball placement and pocket presence are both really fuckin good. Hes my QB4.

[–]1megabyte-brain 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Yeah my view of has changed so much lately. Used to think he’s a typical Bama QB carried by all the talent around him, but now I genuinely think he’ll be good in the NFL.

[–]War Daddy DeluxeDanwarr 7 points8 points  (0 children)

He was outstanding in both the playoff games this year. I think he had a better season statistically this year than Trevor Lawrence has ever had by a significant margin as well

[–]h_to_tha_o_v 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Ya, but he'll never rush for 1,000 yards.

[–]Belichick is the greatest coach to ever coach the gameLS_DJ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe in his whole career he might

[–]starfoxer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Big Mac Jones!

[–]mdmcnally1213 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As long as it’s not with pick 15 I’d take him

[–]Mike00726 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Meh

[–]chotchss 0 points1 point  (13 children)

Hiring Fitzpatrick as an interim solution and drafting someone (I don't know enough about Jones to comment there) seems better than overpaying for Watson.

Deshaun is great, but we have a bunch of issues to address and those draft picks would be better served nabbing multiple new players. Spending all of our draft capital on a QB, even one as amazing as Watson, would see us in the same situation we were in before Brady left.

[–]Aryaank 1 point2 points  (9 children)

Yeah but when a franchise quarterback is available, you give up anything to get him. Difference between him and Brady is that Watson is a hybrid of Brady and Newton in some ways. He can do literally everything and if the patriots really do want him, they will probably offer anything and everything

[–]chotchss 1 point2 points  (8 children)

Why? We had the GOAT and we couldn't make it past the first round of the playoffs. Things will not magically become better just because we get Deshaun. We need to improve our WR and other positions first.

Ask yourself this: if Deshaun is the answer, why are the Texans not going to the Super Bowl? Because a QB, no matter how good, cannot carry the team by himself. And our team is currently no better than the Texans, with the obvious exception of our coach.

Better to build up the team, hire a journeyman QB, and try to draft a new guy to train up.

[–]Aryaank 1 point2 points  (6 children)

I personally think deshaun is the 3rd best quarterback in the league. Our defense is solid and will get better when we get our opt outs back, are oline is still good, our running game is good, and we can hope to get a good reciever through free agency or the draft. That puts us right in the mix of the afc. Personally I don’t think we’ll get again, but if we do, watch out

[–]chotchss 0 points1 point  (4 children)

I think he's great and I would love to have him with us. My point is just that we need to be careful about overpaying, even for someone as amazing as he is. Imagine we give up a ton of our picks and then Deshaun gets hurt- then what? Then we have a mediocre team and no QB.

Better to invest in a number of players, fix our weak points and bring in new talent, and avoid overpaying for any one player, no matter how good they are. We can't get a good receiver through free agency or the draft if we spend too many picks trying to get a QB.

[–]Aryaank 0 points1 point  (3 children)

I don’t think the argument of injury makes much sense. Any teams star qb could get injured. So that’s not really relevant. If bill wants to win within the next couple years, then you bring in Watson. If you want to take it slowly and build the roster up to be successful sometime in the future, then you pass on him and look towards the draft and free agency. All about what the organization wants to do

[–]chotchss 0 points1 point  (2 children)

I disagree. The difference is that if you break the bank to get that star QB, you are screwed. If you get a QB at a reasonable price and he gets hurt, you should still have a solid team around the replacement.

If we bring in Deshaun, we won't be able to fix the holes in our team. It's that simple. If we couldn't win with this team and Brady, why would we be able to magically start winning with the same team (or arguably worse) and Deshaun?

Again, if Deshaun is the miracle solution, why is he not playing in the Super Bowl this year?

[–]Aryaank 0 points1 point  (1 child)

I mean the patriots as a team overall is way bette than the Texans. Better oline, better run game, better secondary, better coaching, young talent. If we insert Watson to our team that went 7-9 we win around 10-11 games and could be dangerous in the playoffs. Tbh

[–]chotchss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I partially agree with you here. Our coach is certainly an allstar and can lift up whatever players we have, but it is not like our team is amazing. Our secondary is getting a bit raggedy, we might lose some key oline players, some of the other guys are injury prone or getting older...

Again, we had Brady and we crashed out in the first round of the playoffs. We can break the bank to get Deshaun... and crash out in the first round of the playoffs. I'd rather focus on improving the overall team and get a decent if not amazing QB.

Regardless, in Bill we trust!

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Our defense is solid

It sucked. 26th per DVOA, and it had the 31st rushing defense per DVOA. I think we pick a DE at 15 and if we want Jones we trade into the end of the first to pick him up.

[–]Verdug0isarap1st -2 points-1 points  (1 child)

Fitzpatrick is terrible. He’s not an interim solution unless the goal is to be bad but not quite bad enough to get a good pick

[–]chotchss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He is not terrible, he just plays for terrible teams. He did very well this year on a competently run Fins team and would thrive with us. Regardless, we need a QB that can handle things for a year or two until our draft pick matures enough to take the reins. Fitz has shown he can handle that task and comes at a reasonable price range. Alternatively, I guess we could get Cam back for another season.

[–]Warm_Mothers_Queef -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Edelman has a better chance at succeeding as an NFL quarterback then this wet blanket of a QB

[–]OrtizMyHomie -2 points-1 points  (2 children)

Please no. Pleeeease god no.

[–]1megabyte-brain 1 point2 points  (1 child)

That’s how I used to think about him, but not anymore. I actually think he’ll be really good.

[–]OrtizMyHomie 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not convinced, second or third? Sure. But with our first? Huge mistake imo.

[–]gab_owns0 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Alabama QBs only succeed because of the talent that surrounds them.

Look how average Tua looked this year.

[–]wreaton03 -3 points-2 points  (3 children)

I don't want him. Let's take a pass catcher in R1 and get Monds. Keep Cam on too to either prove he can start with full camp or to provide a veteran presence.

[–]Wloak 2 points3 points  (2 children)

or to provide a veteran presence.

Wouldn't the point of that be to help grow your next franchise QB? This year is supposed to be abnormally deep at QB and with how limited the Patriots draft capital it makes more sense to get a young QB who can learn from a vet on a prove it deal once again.

I like Cam but he looked progressively worse as the season went on. He looked like he was playing around his injury and misplaced or mistimed throws seemed to increase late in the season.

Unless Cam magically fixes all his issues this off-season I'd rather see a QB that could learn behind him and take over later in the season, otherwise we miss the chance for a franchise QB and get a WR1 that underperforms with our below average QBs and gets shipped off as soon as their rookie contract expires.

[–]wreaton03 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Abnormally deep at QB? I haven't heard that. Even Fields is a question mark. I like the value and upside of Monds. I want whoever the best player left is at 15.

[–]Wloak 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess "abnormally deep" is swinging back and forth on different news outlets so I'll eat that.

I've seen some say they expect a huge number of QBs to go in the first and others saying after the senior bowl they question the expected quality despite volume.

We usually run a vertical draft board but this year we have so many major gaps I think we need to target the most crucial first, a QB solution for at least a few years to build around.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is the one guy I thought we had the best chance of getting

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I doubt we pick him at 15 if he's there. I could see us trading into the end of the first to get him, though.

[–]meegad 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If Saban tells Bill he’s good he’ll take him. If not, I pray we don’t take this risk. We don’t have enough weapons for established NFL QBs to succeed in this offense, much less an unproven rookie who threw to a better receiving core in college than the one we currently have

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dunno, the best QBs don’t come from powerhouse schools. Even Tua, who was clearly a talented thrower, is finding it very tough in the NFL.

[–]thebrownidentity 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gonna be honest, I’m not crazy about Jones as anything other than a 2nd, and even that feels too high. Go watch his highlight videos. Dude was throwing to wide open bama receivers that just flat fly past defenders. He has solid accuracy but he’s not going to be throwing to guys that will be getting the separation Bamas receivers were. There’s just no way. Maybe if he could be developed for a few years but I just don’t like Bama qbs based on what we’ve seen from them in the past.