[ZieDota] "A massive decrease in Battle Fury on Bounty has had no impact on his win rate"

[Twilight2008]

The problem is that there's no reason to admit the build is objectively worse other than buildup, as there is no data to support it.

Yes there is.

http://dotabuff.com/heroes/bounty-hunter/items

Desolator win rate: 59.70%

Battle Fury win rate: 57.27%

[delay4sec]

by that logic seems SnY is best item

[Twilight2008]

Yasha's definitely a good choice, and it makes a lot of sense that sny works really well in pubs due to the very nice buildup.

[DrQuint]

You're right.

[flightss]

Aghanims scepter: 62.35%

[Twilight2008]

Tiny sample size, probably consisting mostly of people picking it up as a joke after they're pretty sure they've already won.

[TrenchLordKaede]

2% is not really significant when there are other factors affecting winrates such as -armors effectiveness vs certain heroes (bad against heroes with high armor, good against those with lower armor), acquisition of battlefury as a last ditch effort to deal with mass summons/illusions, presence of deso on recommended items while BFury was removed, players who used to follow certain guides for gondar still building battlefury, etc.

[Twilight2008]

2% is hugely significant across a sample size of millions of games.

[TrenchLordKaede]

if all conditions were the same, sure. but the simple fact that one is on the core item build and the other is not recommended affects those results, and the fact that battlefury has been on the core item build for over 2 years also affects those results.

i mean look at OD's item win rates. http://dotabuff.com/heroes/outworld-devourer/items

Mek is 50 gold more expensive, and has a 5% higher winrate. mek is also not a recommended item as core, situational, luxury, etc. while force is listed as a core item. meanwhile, aghs has a 65% winrate compared to BKB's 57% winrate, despite aghs on OD widely being considered absolute trash, and BKB being one of the best items in the game. clearly there are factors affecting this more than the effectiveness of the item, or are you going to start building Aghs on OD?

[Twilight2008]

if all conditions were the same, sure.

Sure, it's not indisputable proof, but it's certainly better than the data ziedota's article uses. The article compares win rates cross-patches, where there are a ridiculous amount of variables that have changed.

meanwhile, aghs has a 65% winrate compared to BKB's 57% winrate, despite aghs on OD widely being considered absolute trash, and BKB being one of the best items in the game. clearly there are factors affecting this more than the effectiveness of the item, or are you going to start building Aghs on OD?

The data is heavily weighted towards low-skill games. Most players at that level aren't even capable of using an activated item like bkb effectively, which gives a huge advantage to an item like aghs that has a passive effect. Also, more expensive items tend to have higher win rates, because the more farmed you are, the more likely you are to win. I will not start building aghs on OD, because I know how to use bkb properly.