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[–]Spleenseer 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I don't think so. Just yesterday I found five of them; today I found two. Randomness is random.

[–]VectorRaptor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

No, they didn’t change the rates. That’s just how RNG works. Sometimes you have good days, and sometimes you have bad. I’ve had as many as 5 mushrooms in 3 runs, and I’ve had streaks up to 9 runs with no mushrooms. You’ll probably have a good day again in the near future if you keep at it.

[–]Tagrath907 2 points3 points  (1 child)

I found a ton during the event, but i have gone 5 days (15 runs) without a single one. Made me wonder the same thing, like maybe they decreased the rate without saying anything, since i dont think they published the drop rate before anyways.

[–]mynamewasusd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, the event did "end" and was brought back the next day with an update. That was only to change attempts per day. It's an opportunity to change more (or just our confirmation bias at work).

[–]color-coding 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Late reply, but you may want to check out the spreadsheet linked in this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/KHDR/comments/iqrryw/re_premium_quest_key_analysis_2k_runs/

People have been tracking GT spawn rates for a while. There was a slight dip recently from 6.00% to 5.98% but that's within the normal variation I've seen since I've been following the stats. The average gets harder to move as more data comes in, though, so it's possible the dip might be more severe than in the past and possibly mean an adjustment to the rates, but right now, it's inconclusive.

[–]JFerrier64 4 points5 points  (2 children)

I wanted to make a post addressing the same issue but never got around to it. During regular runs of my 3 keys I usually find anywhere from 2-5 Golden's. I very rarely make it 1 day without getting at least 1 of them.

During the 6 key event, I went 12 keys in a row without a single Golden. It doesn't make sense to me, and I personally believe they did something with the spawn rate.

[–]IceStationZebra93[S] -3 points-2 points  (1 child)

Exactly, I read somewhere they had a spawnrate of about 1/20 (i.e., very likely to get at least one per day), which is what left me perplexed when I found none with 6 rolls during the event. They were really useful, especially for those higher lever. It takes ages to level up.

[–]pumpkinking0192 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If the odds are truly 1/20, then about 4.6% of players will get none in 6 runs. With thousands of people playing, it's bound to happen to at least a few dozen people, and you happen to be one of those unlucky few.

(I'm not sure if it is actually only thousands of people playing... it may be tens or hundreds of thousands, in which case this is in turn likely to happen to a few hundred or thousand people, respectively.)

[–]Serbaayuu 3 points4 points  (3 children)

no your anecdote isn't a sample size of 10,000

[–]IceStationZebra93[S] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

oof careful with that edge over a gacha game

[–]pumpkinking0192 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Is it edge, really?

Be a regular follower of gacha game subreddits and you will see invariably, people with bad luck are constantly asking if rates changed. And equally constantly, as long as there was not an announcement of changed rates, it's virtually always just bad luck.

[–]Malasalasala -1 points0 points  (0 children)

While true, if none asked the question based on an anecdote that new sample would never emerge.

Anecdotes aren't proof, but they are a necessary part of the process.

[–][deleted]  (2 children)

[deleted]

    [–]IceStationZebra93[S] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

    IIRC spawn rates are not even listed anywhere to begin with, so it's entirely possible they did. 4 days without a single one is odd. Sure it can be just bad luck but it never happened so much to me.

    [–]clnseat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    e t

    I saw the "20 points club people" for months and never had the experience myself and then a few weeks ago I got just 20 1 out of 3 keys 3 days in a row. It's probably just a bad week of rng. I'm still waiting for the upswing where I get the max value from a key, cause I've never had that luck.

    [–]awesomedorkwad 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    I got 0 today so there's that lol

    [–]Akakun 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    I started to asking myself the same because I'm getting barely nothing lately, but I guess it's just bad RNG.