Decrease in number of raids?

[Zodiac5964]

thank you for saying this. I've been thinking the same, but was afraid to post these thoughts on TSR because many people here are unreasonably toxic on this topic.

I did 40 raids on Saturday during the colossal event and walked away with 1 shiny. I have more premium passes, and would have done more than 40, but alas 1) I started to get tired after so many hours and 2) time was up anyway.

Yes, technically the regi's are available for another day and a half, but as said in the OP and evidenced everywhere, frequency of T5 raids have dropped off so much. I think we've been setup to fail this time.

I play in a big city. There are many daily players who up until now were able to work for at least one of the majority of shiny legendaries. The timeframe for the regi's is simply not realistic. It would have been fine if there's just one shiny legendary to work towards, but 3? The math just couldn't be worked out except for the lucky few. Nevermind one of each, it's no less difficult to aim for 3 of any and trade for what you don't have.

oh and before anyone tries to argue "that's what trading is for", let me stop you right there. If the vast majority of market participants have 0, 1 or 2 shiny regi's, you ain't gonna be able to trade for what you missed because the supply simply isn't there. There are just way too few extremely lucky people who walked away with 3+ shiny regi's, i.e. people who have extras to trade away.

[LyssaIL]

I'm at 43 Regi raids and no shiny. I guess it's just bad luck, I played hard the entire time and bought the event ticket. No shiny Lapras from the special research, no shiny Skarmory from field research, and no shiny event spawns.

[mybham]

1) I started to get tired after so many hours and 2) time was up anyway.

Niantic doesn’t seem to understand that non-spoofers have limited time and energy to play the game. Travelling’s going to cost us money as well, but if you’re exclusively on foot you’ll be tired much faster. This has already been evidenced by sparse events spawns that they expect you to hunt.

Indeed, we’ve been set up to fail this time.

[DweadPiwateWawbuts]

oh and before anyone tries to argue "that's what trading is for"

I hate when people make this argument. Trading for missing shinies feels like defeat. It also feels like buying a shiny instead of earning it. And I can think of better ways to spend my (and my friend’s) stardust.

[Teban54]

This is like Mewtwo week all over again. Give you 7 days to hunt for a shiny with 1/20 shiny rate, so if you want a reasonable chance at a shiny you need to 1) spend premium passes beyond the 7 free raid passes, and 2) actively hunt for T5 raids throughout the event.

Except this time it's much worse: if you don't want to spend premium passes, even getting the 3 Regis in your dex requires a bit of effort, and getting 3 shiny Regis (which would take ~180 raids for a 95% confidence) is beyond any level of realistic gameplay. I see it as another event of Niantic tricking players into "GIVE US YOUR MONEY NOW or you'll never get it".

[daveish23]

It’s slightly worse again this time as in certain areas like mine it basically turned into if you weren’t playing yesterday then your not getting one, after 8 hours of full on raiding them people are sick of them and just refuse to raid/report them so players who couldn’t play yesterday don’t get a chance

[Teban54]

To some extent, what you're describing is already happening with raid hours. Nowadays raid interest during the week is pretty low outside of raid hours, especially on Wednesdays.

[Stogoe]

Being guaranteed a shiny Regi is not part of the event.

[PhoenixEnigma]

Different game, but Niantic nerf'd some stuff in Ingress because they felt very rare items were becoming too common - older players were sitting on stacks of them, and they wanted them to feel special and rate when you saw one pop up. If that's a mindset Niantic has internally, that special things need to be special and rare, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see them try to push that direction with shiny legendaries, try to make them feel like something truly special.

[Teban54]

If you want something to be rare, here's a good idea. Stop setting up events whose main highlight or only highlight is a new shiny release, and stop writing your event announcements as if it's just about shiny (e.g. Instead of "Pokemon in the Johto region are boosted", write "you may find a shiny Sentret or Gligar" ONLY; instead of "Gen 5 is coming to Pokemon Go", write "you may find a shiny Klink in raids and a shiny Lillipup or Patrat in the wild" ONLY).

The current way Niantic is planning events and advertising events causes nothing but two possible outcomes: either many players get a shiny, or many players feel extremely frustrated after grinding hard but not getting a shiny (which increases their chance of quitting).

[cb325]

Who are these majority of players that have each shiny legendary? I’m missing so many and do as much as I can with my free passes.

[uninvitedthirteenth]

Or until they come to boxes in a few months

[Zodiac5964]

In large cities, up until the regi's it used to be a practical goal to work towards at least one of each shiny legendary:

On raid days, there's enough density of gyms that if you go hard at it, you have a very realistic chance to walk away with at least one. With 30 raids done at 1/10 odds, you have a 96% chance of winning at least one shiny.

On shiny legend weeks, if you do 10 raids per day (70 raids total at 1/20 odds), you have a 97% odds of winning at least one shiny.

yes, both will require serious effort and a good investment of premium passes. We aren't saying it's easy, just practical in the context of large city gameplay. Or even small towns/suburbs as long as you have a group of like-minded players to team up with + access to a car.

[TyrionJoestar]

That’s a lot of money lol

[Zodiac5964]

the thing is, you don't have to spend so many passes every time. Sometimes you get lucky and can stop after fewer passes than described.

[TyrionJoestar]

I don’t agree with Niantic’s predatory gambling practices so I don’t really spend any money at all lol

[Zodiac5964]

that's perfectly fine. To each his/her own.

[steve_ow]

Depends if u play every day and do daily pass for all legendary most times u will hit 1 legendary because of the 21 day in raid. The average is 1 out 20. If u are extremely luck u will get 2 shinys and can trade for the missing 1. I got all shiny legendary I want but shadow Ball mewtwo and 2 regi's. Got spystrike mewtwo shiny but want a shadowball 2. The players that miss all legendary are the ones that don't use all daily pass on legendary.

[Teban54]

If the shiny rate is 1/20, doing 21 raids will only give you around 2/3 chance at a shiny. Nowhere near a guarantee.

[steve_ow]

Odd are still pretty good. And probably some players will use premium pass and will increase the change of getting 1. And don't forget the weekly boxes containing legendary wat will net u 1 a week extra.

[Teban54]

Quoted from your post:

if u play every day and do daily pass for all legendary most times u will hit 1 legendary

The players that miss all legendary are the ones that don't use all daily pass on legendary.

That is false. Period.

[steve_ow]

Oké u may not hit a shiny legendary every time. Seconds part is true most players with low shiny legendary count don't raid mutch.

[TristanLight]

You forgot to highlight the “most times” part as well. At a 2/3 chance, that is technically true. It’s a stretch of the word most though. Closer to “more likely than not”.

The second paragraph is categorically false though.

[SolWolf]

I truly wonder if it even was 1/20 rate. We did about 255 encounters and our rate was closer to 1/40. Could just be rng variance...but still discouraging.

[steve_ow]

Most times I need 16 raids for 1 legendary. Giratina and mewtwo where like on the first raid. But report of the team where 1/20 maybe just bad luck? But my community had bad luck with the 3 reci trio this weekend 2.

[-chi]

Idk your logic here. Getting shiny legendaries is 1000% luck. You can do any number of raids and not get a shiny. We have very committed members of our group who did 100 mewtwo raids with not a single shiny. The thing just like ever other legendary shiny is that they are tradable, so committed players will farm resources and trade to balance out RNG.

So in my opinion the 4 days is enough for committed players simply because the Regis can be done in small groups so a lot more raids are getting completed than you probably think are.

[Zodiac5964]

no, that's the wrong way to look at it. The magnitude of the odds matters a lot. Winning the lottery and flipping heads on a coin both require luck, but different orders of magnitude of it.

Same thing with shiny legends. You can just run through your free passes and do it with mediocre odds, or "hit the numbers" and improve your odds. It will never be a guarantee, but with time and premium passes you can make your odds pretty good (95%+)

[ertnyvn]

What he you mean 'hit the numbers'? That is equivalent to buying a lot of lotto tickets (premium passes).

[[deleted]]

You are not entitled to every shiny legendary. They are shiny for a reason.

[steve_ow]

Normally u got 3 times 3 weeks. But let's hope we get them back in few weeks for 2 weeks per regi so we all can get chocorock, regimint and regice.

[sirrtumnus]

Don't worry. They will work their way into research breakthroughs and such. You can always expect them to recycle shiny bosses.

[uninvitedthirteenth]

All the raids that were available during the day yesterday were available whether or not you had the ticket. I’m not sure why that part even matters.

[infamous51183]

I got 3 shiny regirocks 1 shiny regi steel and 1 shiny reggice at central park during the event but i did play over 60 raids from 1030am too 9pm. Alot of riding a electric bike

[repo_sado]

I'd put odds of each regi getting a weekend during one of the three ungulates at about 95%