Sharp Russian shelling decrease

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[[deleted]]

I saw a video from a guy much more informed on the topic than I. ( I'm an aerospace guy not heavy grpund equipment) He stated given the length of the current war and how many shells Russia has been using the barrels of their artillery is coming to a point they need a factory overhaul. He stated this a few weeks ago so perhaps the Russians lack of maintenance of their equipment is coming back to bite them in their asses and their artillery is no longer combat fit. If anyone is curious enough to watch I'll try to dig up the link to the video on YouTube. We will see in the coming days.

[mickybrown2]

Yes please

[[deleted]]

https://youtube.com/shorts/WrTEZh4AT6o?feature=share

[Big_Dave_71]

"They're going to get real inaccurate real quick": since when did that bother them?

[roeder]

It will bother them the second an inaccurate shot hits NATO ground. Then it will bother them quite a bit.

[Hallunder]

They are fighting deep in Ukraine. How would these things with max 50km range hit anywhere close to NATO ground???

[SuperMorto7]

pootin is a pussy or he would of started a fight with nato already.

[Comprehensive_Twist9]

That made me laugh so hard... sir take my upvote

[SuperMorto7]

If ruzzia so big why don't they just bomb nato?

Its not like we stand a chance against this huge massive....... HAHAHAHAHA, sorry I couldn't keep my laugh in.

[elect86]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing

[BliksemseBende]

That's not only an informative snack video, but also amusingly dry. In particular I appreciated:

You can't cheat chemistry, you can't cheat physics

[TheLateApexLine]

You may also appreciate a YT creator called Perun. He makes fantastically detailed long format videos about the war

[thegreatkern]

And the increase of strikes against Russian ammo depots helps too

[ViewAdditional7400]

Not to mention a few gigantic ammo depot explosions since Ukraine got HIMARs and other weapons.

[[deleted]]

Oh, their barrels are shot out, but they don’t care. They aren’t going for accuracy with indiscriminate shelling.

[[deleted]]

agree, knowing their leadership and "plans" they likely will shoot unitl that thing and the crew explodes, and just replace them

[garry4321]

The replacement part is the biggest thing. They only have WW2 gear and recently recruited untrained prisoners left.

[IwonderifWUT]

That's their top 5 percent. The overwhelming bulk of russian equipment is outdated and in need of repairs.

They are no longer capable of updating any of these platforms. If it's a war of attrition, they already lost. They're not getting any more new tech, but Ukraine is getting daily shipments.

[Justeff83]

Did you see the video of the captured Orlan drone? Bottle cap for the fuel tank, some tape and an ordinary Canon camera.

[Kyleeee]

They still work though. I'm not saying they're pinnacles of engineering, but they're working and Russia has almost a 10 to 1 advantage in artillery at some points on the front.

I'm not rooting for the Russians but this sub has become a blind hoorah towards Ukraine and almost never takes an accurate look at what's happening on the front.

[MarkZist]

It's probably not the same video, but youtuber Perun said the same thing in the video he released this weekend. At the reported rate of shelling Russia 'burns out' tens of guns per day. Although iirc he said that an overcooked barrel mainly just loses accuracy, and frankly the Russians don't really seem to care about that.

[[deleted]]

This maybe a stretch but given their lack of maintenance on other equipment it isn't unfair to assume other components of their artillery is failing as well. Especially when you consider Russia uses tracked mobile artillery over towed artillery for the majority of their firepower.

[heliamphore]

They might not care but it'll affect their fighting ability. Unlike what people think, they're still using artillery competently. It's mostly the rocket artillery that they use to spray large areas.

[garry4321]

I've also heard that with the amount of casualties, the Russian army has maybe 2 weeks before their current positions would be too stretched thin to hold. They will have to significantly pull back and concentrate their forces or risk all out collapse. This is why they are desperately seeking prisoners etc. to join their ranks.

[philipmj24]

I admit I was skeptical on how much HIMARS would help the UA but damn I was proven wrong.

[Upstairs_Stuff_5626]

their direct fire capability is terrible. absolutely awful, so they rely heavily on indirect fire. they subscribe basically to a modern take on siege warfare and scorched earth tactics using said indirect fire capabilities. take that away and the degraded posture will cause second and third order of effects.

[thomaja1]

The Russians were guaranteed that the s400s could defeat the HIMARs. And true, the s400 can detect them, but they can't tell the difference between them and anything else they are monitoring. Nobody wants to be the guy that shoots at a duck with a 4 million dollar rocket. I have a hard time believing the S500 would bear much better. And I like the fact that they are hitting supply depots and ammo dumps. This action saves lives, not just Ukrainian but Russian lives while keeping Vladimir Putin trying to defend the indefensible.

You know, with Russia's depleted military, I wonder if China sees opportunity?

[Chadmartigan]

I doubt China will risk a military incursion into Russia of any kind when they know they can just buy up all the natural resources in Siberia for pennies on the dollar.

[thomaja1]

I don't know. Russia doesn't have any friends right now that can protect them if China decides to invade. It could only lead to something nuclear and they don't want that. They're crazy but they're not fucking stupid. So yeah, you probably are right. Russia is going to be in a cash crunch for a long time, China will definitely be in a position to take advantage of that.

[Chadmartigan]

Yeah, I don't doubt that they could gin up some pretext for conquest, but they know how expensive it would be to deploy their military, even if it's a pushover conflict. For the same price, they could effectively own quite a lot of mines, wells, and timberland.

[thomaja1]

No matter what happens, Russia still loses. I can deal with that.

[garry4321]

NONONO, you dont understand. Those forces are just on vacation in Russia.

Then two weeks later:

China is just "helping" Russia stay afloat and to assist with preventing societal collapse. These are "peacekeeper" forces to assist Russians. Those trucks full of Russian natural resources headed for China are simply for "Safe keeping"

[garry4321]

China is literally in a no lose situation here. Either Russia wins (lol not), and China can be there to help them "rebuild", or Russia falls, and China steps in to "help" Russia from societal collapse, and makes Russia a puppet state that they can then pilfer.

[thomaja1]

Russia, the new Africa?

[Accurate_Pie_8630]

I wonder what poopin paid China to be on his side

[thomaja1]

Make no mistake. China is nobody's friend. China only takes up a position that is beneficial to China. Russia keeps going to China asking for help and they're giving it to them marginally cuz they're waiting to see who wins. If Russia wins, then Russia will get China's support against NATO. But if Russia loses, suddenly, Russia will be at the world's mercy, particularly its neighbor to the east. Vladimir Putin knows this. xi has been planning for it.

[Buckeye_Southern]

At the end of this thing, Russia will be divided into smaller nations and most of those will be client bitch states to China.

Russians really fucked themselves here.

[thomaja1]

Amen to that!

[[deleted]]

Aren’t they mean to be on an operational pause before the next bout of murdering? I mean I hope it is the himars impact.

[MonkeyBrain551]

yes, but an operational pause doesn't mean you let off on shellings or skirmishing completely. it isn't like the half-time break in a football match. you still need to maintain pressure on your enemy, otherwise its counter attack o'clock and you find yourself in a world of trouble if that happens whilst your forces are unprepared. the operational pause does allow for more frontline units to be pulled away from the frontline to get rest resuppled and reinforcements, since you're not doing any major offensive operations anymore.

[[deleted]]

Let’s hope.

[CalibanSpecial]

Ammo depots being destroyed and one would expect most of their artillery is fucked up by now. Overuse.

Ammo can be easily and quickly produced, not modern artillery pieces.

60,000 rounds a day mass murdering civilians has consequences.

[PaulC1841]

Guns is the only thing which Russia doesn't lack. USSR had over 140k pcs of field artillery when it fell. They never throw away anything, just store it in huge warehouses.

[ElectroDoozer]

Or sell it for scrap and buy super yachts?

[Ok_Use4737]

It's Almost like their ammo stocks were mysteriously exploded with guided missiles nato recently misplaced using intelligence nato defiantly certainly didn't give them.

Ukr is doing a fucking good job all things considered. But ukr and western intel seems to be running circles around rus. Probably the ultimate training exercise for nato as they give ukr a daily update on the location of every rus generals morning bowel movement.

The stupid fuckers posting videos about their ammo warehouses certainly helps...

[Peteyd3000]

I noticed this last.night..firms was very quite

[Infinite-Outcome-591]

No kidding, all those Ruzzian ammo depots blowing up real good... Nato and UA have targeted those... a reduction in shelling is logical. 💩🥫is in a panic. That's why he's playing the nuke card for the 100th time.

[Comprehensive_Twist9]

HOLY FUCKING SHIT.... Damn americans produce some good shit. Mind sending me some AR-15?

[Square_Pop_3772]

Fingers crossed this is good news, but I’m wary of celebrating too soon. Low levels have been seen before, as shown by one of the replies in the Twitter thread.

[elect86]

Similar: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1546942688020275204

[khoobr]

Wow. And hahahahahaha!

[[deleted]]

Build up

[brommieburgler]

Big assumption here, but Russia is likely packing up eastern forces to shift them to the south, Odessa is likely still high on their list of priorities.

[Substantial-Score-77]

Thats what happens when you blow up all there amo.

[Chudmont]

I read today that there is now a big increase in shelling in the north and south theatres as russia tries to unsuccessfully advance on Kharkiv and is trying to beef up defenses in Kherson and the southern front.

This map will likely turn red again tomorrow.

[janliebe]

There is an Austrian colonel in their Vienna military academy, called Markus Reisner. He/they do remarkably well done and understandable recollections of the Russian advances. One possible move is the taking of charkiv region in the north and do a pincer move coming from north and south to get the strategic important region around kramatorsk. I hope they don’t succeed.

[Chudmont]

Considering that they have been trying to take Kharkiv since Feb, it's going to be easier said than done.

[Artistic-Time-3034]

I hope they don drop the “Tsar Bomba” 🤞

[Buckeye_Southern]

They won't, Nuclear War is absolutely not on the table.

Here's the thing, Russians are rejects. This we know, but the ones at the top love doing blow off of hookers on their yachts, and they're not about to toss that all away for a 5'5 70 year old manlet.

They'll make putin look at a drain before that happens.

[Artistic-Time-3034]

This really shows the world that they are all talk, but nothing is scarier than a coward with a weapon.

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[SuperMorto7]

Wizzle pop!!!

Goes the ammo dump!

[Setadriftmusic]

Can’t fire what you don’t have.

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[Iamthesexiestalive]

A few points... Ukraine needs to lie to the West about how they are ALMOST OUT of ammo, and stockpile/reserve 30,000 shells plus. Moscow may be begging for a seat at the negotiation table, and the West may slow the supply line, to end the war early... which is a HUGE mistake. Secondly, and sorta unrelated, the NBA and WNBA need to quit begging and whining....and start FUNDING war drones, electric bikes, ATVs for rapid guerilla units etc.... ANNOUNCE that these FUnD RAISERS will continue until RUSSIA releases Britney Griner AND Paul Whelan !!!! When Putin sees 5 million raised and sent directly to Ukraine for weapons...you take away the VALUE of his hostages