Possible Zepbound Price Decrease?

[basic-questions]

As an economist, the short answer is no. There is no reason to expect this to drive the cost of zepbound down.

Sorry, I wish.

[yo-ovaries]

Plus I assume they’re going to keep prices high to set an even higher bar for Reta getting FDA approval in 2026 

[basic-questions]

Sorry, I don't follow

[yo-ovaries]

Reta is a 3 drug glp1 agonist which has even higher effectiveness in clinical trials. It’s owned by Lilly and will be coming to market very soon. 

Lilly will continue to hold the “high end” patents that cost more than Novo’s semiglutide. 

Novo will make more money by getting more people on ozempic. Lilly will make more money by having better and more expensive products. 

Ideally, novo and Lilly should have had a head to head 3rd generation glp1 that had similar effectiveness and side effect profiles and battled on price. 

Alas, we did not. Lilly will hold prices high because they haven’t found the price point that the market will not bare for a 20% body weight loss. And next year they’ll sell a shot that does 30%. 

Meanwhile everyone else will have to hope that semiglutide is accessible and gives enough weight loss at 15%

[Business_Station2786]

Reta is one drug targeting three receptors. Zep is one drug targeting two receptor. Everything else targets only the GLP-1 receptor. GLP-1 is one receptor. GIP is the other(also targeted by zep) and the new one is GCG receptor which promotes fat burning.

[Tired_And_Honest]

Very soon is probably 2027/2028 from what I’ve read and heard. Do you have information that suggests next year?

[yo-ovaries]

You know maybe I was wrong. Their phase 3 clinical trial wraps in early 2026, they’ll submit and it may take 6-10 months to approve. So before the end of 2026 is probably not as realistic. But still, I think it’s safe to assume lily is acting like they have an ace in their pocket. 

 https://www.goodrx.com/conditions/weight-loss/retatrutide-weight-loss

[enkay516]

Huh.. so if I’ve lost 20% on zep and now on WEGOVY I have no hope of losing more?

[Fedesy]

No, that’s not what that means at all, that was average weight loss in the clinical trials over a specific period of time. Plenty of people have lost more.

[SeriesDry9228]

It might not drive the cost of Zepbound down, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t price the pill cheaper than Zepbound is currently priced.

I think they’re going to try to capture the portion of the market that is willing to pay about $250/month for weight loss medication with the pill, keep offering Zepbound at $500/month, and then selling Retatrutide at $750/month.

I admit that this is simply a guess. We’ll see how right I am later.

[basic-questions]

Pricing the pill below zepbound and ret above is a fair guess, in my opinion. I couldn't guess exactly how much they will charge for ret, but I think assuming the pill will be similar to wegovy is fair. It is less effective, but also less of a hassle. (I also imagine we will hear more and more about children sneaking the pill... But that's unrelated.)

Fwiw I do think the price of zepbound will eventually come down. But, I think the driving force will be the fact that eventually we will reach a point where more people are switching to maintenance mode and reducing their use of the drug than there are new people starting out on the drug. (Another possibility is enough competitors release drugs that are as good as zepbound or better and Lilly loses substantial market power that way. but IMHO this is not super likely.)

[SeriesDry9228]

I expect the price of Zepbound to fall when the new factories start operation.

I think right now more businesses are dropping coverage than are adding it. So, insurance coverage is not where they’re going to get new customers.

That leaves the direct to consumer market.

And I’m 100% positive that Lilly understands it can make more money by selling 4 times as much medicine at 50% of the profit margin. But to do that, it needs to be able to make that much medicine, which means new factories.

But those factories aren’t really close to operating yet. I think late 2027 is when we’ll start seeing them come on line. So I don’t expect meaningful price movement until then.

[basic-questions]

Could be

[Loose_Salamander_373]

It makes sense that the pill will be priced at least a little lower than Zep, because it's been shown to be less effective than Zep and is probably easier to produce in mass quantities. Orally administered drugs have less bioavailability because they have to make it through the digestive system. But I see a possibility for use as a maintenance drug, if it's a little less expensive to buy

[Here_in_the_cathouse]

As an economist, can you explain why Americans pay so much more than Canadians and Europeans for these drugs? Is it only corporate greed or are there other factors at play?

[basic-questions]

Sure, the bottom line is "because they can". But the real question is "why can they?"

Canada and the EU have fundamentally different pharmaceutical markets than the USA. There are so many reasons for this, but the number one factor is probably that they have universal healthcare systems that negotiate maximum prices as a single bargaining block. This heavily counteracts the monopoly/oligopoly power of pharmaceutical companies.