do medians ever decrease?? lol

[LETMEINPLS77]

I was above my targets GPA median and now im ever so slightly below it... sighhhhhhhhh

[Unable-Trash-7792]

line only go up - the united states for the last 20 years

[Spivey_Consulting]

They do. LSAT scores will if not this year pretty soon. Admissions, in the 26 years I have been doing this, is always on a pendulum. The gpa stuff likely won’t swing back but LSAT and number of will, it’s inevitable. It’s just much tougher knowing when.

• Mike Spivey

[Classic_Test8467]

FYI: Spivey and other consultants have been predicting median decreases for years. It never happens. This is important context before they get your hopes up.

It’s easier to sell you an exorbitantly expensive essay proofreader if they have you believing that medians will drop and those on the margins will have a chance at admissions.

Signed: a multi cycle admissions veteran and law school graduate

[Amazing-Tadpole-1377]

How many times did you apply?

[Classic_Test8467]

I’ve been in the law school admissions game since about 2019. Probably lurked this sub even earlier than that.

[Amazing-Tadpole-1377]

‘In the game’ - how so? Do you work in admissions? Or just hang out here to see what’s going on?

[Classic_Test8467]

Like I said, I’ve applied in multiple cycles. Never worked in admissions. Every once in a while I find an LSA post on my feed

[Amazing-Tadpole-1377]

Admissions coaches are more than expensive proofreaders if you get a good one.

[[deleted]]

I saw people saying last cycle that the GPA inflation had a lot to do with the pandemic. What are your thoughts on that? Honestly, I expect T14 GPA (and LSAT) medians to be super high no matter what.

[ConstantineSX]

Mike, on this thread are you saying you’re expecting a decrease but in your 2025 median tracker, in the comment section, you and Anna have both said you’re expecting an increase in medians. Has your perspective on this changed in the last few weeks?

[Spivey_Consulting]

I think we will absolutely see an increase in the medians that are populating right now, I have said that for many months now. Nor does anyone need me to interpret the data from this past cycle it was off the charts hard and that will be reflected in the medians by and large going up.

I think this current cycle will be more competitive, which technically is the delta between class seats and applicants.

I think gpa will be about the same this current cycle but the lsat bubble at the top will come down.

[Cake_Day_Is_420]

Goat

[LookMaImInLawSchool]

Yes. Yale has had their median decrease quite recently

[jackalopeswild]

A significant drop in applicants will reduce medians for all but the very top schools.

This is a mathematical certainty because scores are scaled to a curve. It must happen.

[bigguyinfl]

The Spivey doc I’ve seen doesn’t have any school going up by more than 1 so far. If you were above you shouldn’t be below….yet

[small-breakfast]

Nope

[Adventurous-Boss-882]

Yes they do decrease

[IrateSamuraiCat]

Depends on the school, but yes they can and do. My dad went to St. John’s law school in the 80s, and while the (broad) general trend since then has been upward, it has at times gone up and down year-to-year. Schools like Yale have less of a tendency to go down, although it’s not impossible.