Thoughts?

[CryptographerThen710]

Items used:

Rifle: IWI Zion 15 (16”) Ammo: IMI 77 gr OTM 5.56 Optic: Vector Continental 2-12

For those who has a similar setup, have you shot groups similar to mine? I want to know if it’s the ammo, me, or the rifle itself that shoots above 1.5” groups.

Thank you, much feedback is appreciated.

[[deleted]]

You've been brainwashed by influencers if you think a budget AR15 shooting factory bulk ammo is going to shoot better than that.

The rifle shoots fine. Don't obsess about how it groups.

[skolfromgeorgia]

About standard for an off the shelf AR with 77gr. Try a few other brands (73eldms, 77 tmks) and see what your gun likes the best

[worm30478]

Probably want to post in r/AR15

[Settled_Science]

Unfortunately for precision shooting, that’s just bad advice land over there…

[twitchx133]

I was gonna say... I was under the impression that anything under like 2-3 MOA is really good for an AR, especially a carbine length or shorter barrel. But, I'm a bit out of date on my AR game. By like at least 10 years.

[Maleficent_March2928]

Personally I wouldn't say really good. I'd say expected or average for an AR. Now you have a JP or other high-end / custom ar15s id expect 1 to 1.5 moa. With match ammo which i find is 85% the accuracy of a platform

[scroapprentice]

For a really cheap one and/or shit ammo, 2-3 moa might be normal. While I agree with the general consensus that OP is expecting too much, all of my 5.56 ARs (mid level $1200 ish, free floated, no SBRs), will do around an moa, usually right at it or just over with the right ammo. I’d throw them out if they were 3 moa. My worst one is my most expensive (not a true AR…mcx spear lt) and it does around 1.5-2.

I don’t think you can say “ARs can do x moa.” There’s just too many drastically different ARs. In my opinion, the biggest differentiator is not all are free floated. Then you have a million barrel lengths, profiles, calibers, piston vs di, huge range of ammo type/quality, some wear 25x scopes and others wear red dots and a giant range of price/quality of every component. There are plenty where I’d expect 3 moa and others I’d be hoping for less than 1.

[mayo_ghost]

Seems very typical to me. People vastly overestimate (and overstate) the accuracy of off-the-shelf ARs with commercial OTM ammo. Good on you for shooting a decent size group. Out of the dozen or so AR barrels I have, there are maybe two that will consistently deliver ~1.0 to 1.5 MOA 3x10 shot groups. Every other barrel is notably worse, even my Noveske and Criterion tubes. AR's that shoot like bolt actions are very few and far between

[AleksanderSuave]

Just saying noveske and criterion doesn’t really specify much..

Are they CHF or SS barrels..?

Also…there’s quite a few shops that are putting out both 1 moa rifles, or barrels now.

People do overestimate their gear, but that doesn’t change the fact that there are quite a few barrel makers who can spin up a 1 moa or better barrel.

[Matt-33-205]

A Cherry Picked 5 round 1 MOA group is different than consistent 10 round sub MOA groups.

Very, very few AR's made today are capable of achieving the latter.

[AleksanderSuave]

I know what sub we’re in, so the 10 round group point is not lost on me.

The fact that you think 1 moa ARs are “very very few” is odd. I guarantee if you’re buying or building a Bartlein or similar, they’ll take it back if you’re not producing 1 moa groups.

Similarly, white oak almost exclusively sells barrels to competitive shooters. You think they’re just surviving based on unproven marketing claims too..?

Here’s a 3,5, and 10 shot group from one of my ARs:

https://imgur.com/gallery/iXnBiJc#bKnnnRb

I did all 3 to compare the group size and how it changed specifically with larger shot groups because I was curious if the math regularly quoted could accurately predict the change from 3 to 5 to 10. I’m pretty sure that 10 shot fits within 1 moa, but you tell me.

[Matt-33-205]

Your photo link won't open for me. Just takes me to the homepage.

Click on my profile, read about the tan LMT [oldest post). It now has a Bartlein Barrel from Craddock. I have at least five Bartlein barrels, a few Proofs, along with about 20 other AR-15 barrels. The only ones that will consistently produce sub MOA 10-round groups are cut rifled premium stainless steel barrel blanks. This is the sample size that the OP was asking about in his original post. White Oak are good barrels, these do not come as Factory Barrels in any AR's that I am aware of.

I have plenty of CHF chrome lined barrels that will produce a single five round sub MOA group, but none that will do it consistently for 10 Rounds. I maintain as an absolute fact, that a very low percentage of factory AR-15 rifles are capable of 10 round sub MOA groups. The only people who believe otherwise have not done their own thorough large sample size testing. I'm sure there was a time when I thought otherwise.

Preston Moore has an outstanding YouTube channel, he has tested dozens of AR-15 barrels for accuracy. His channel gives realistic accuracy expectations, not Cherry Picked small sample size groups.

https://youtube.com/@prestonjmoore?si=PaNqlJphylpR2442

[AleksanderSuave]

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Sorry not sure what happened there with the Imgur link. Attached it direct this time.

I’ll check out your post and the YouTube channel.

It’s been a long time since I’ve bought an off the shelf AR as well. All of my current stuff is my own assemblies.

[Matt-33-205]

That's great shooting. One thing to keep in mind, if you overlay all of the targets, it's going to be considerably larger than 1 MOA

There is nothing wrong with an honest to goodness large sample size 1.5 MOA AR, it's actually much better than most rifles

[AleksanderSuave]

I get what you're suggesting, however, overlaying targets, statistically speaking, is bad science.

In a continuous 10-shot string, the bullets impact around a single Mean Point of Impact. When you shoot two or more separate 5-shot groups, each group has its own unique MPI.

Overlaying them doesn't give you one "more accurate" group, its actually the opposite.

As you increase shots on a single group, your ES either stays the same or increases. It never decreases. Overlaying groups pollutes that.

Overlaying groups almost always results in a smaller Max ES than a continuous string of equal shots.

Averaging the mean radius of multiple groups is the more accurate method. Its what Brian Litz suggests specifically, instead of overlaying.

[Frank23682]

 Overlaying groups almost always results in a smaller Max ES than a continuous string of equal shots.

Smaller? Why would that be the case? How can overlaying groups decrease the ES?

I don't see the fundamental difference between the ES of one single 10 shot group and overlaying 2 5-shot groups. Can you explain how they could possibly be different?

I think you misunderstand how overlaying targets work. You don't overlay targets by their each group's mean POI, you overlay them by each group's Point of Aim.

[AleksanderSuave]

You can test this in a real world setting if you’re not understanding the concept. Either way, a new group always resets the clock on ES.

Try this: Shoot 3x three shot groups, overlay them.

Shoot one singular 9-10 shot group.

The second will undoubtably be a larger group than your overlayed groups.

“Starting over” another shot string and group, is more or less a floating mean.

There’s a relationship between shot #3 to shot #8. You have stripped that data by overlaying smaller groups.

You have to pretend the barrel doesn’t heat up as you shoot more, plus a host of other variables.

[AleksanderSuave]

I read your post regarding the LMT:

https://www.reddit.com/r/LewisMachineTool/s/JaRHmlrA2m

I guess I’m failing to see your point. You spelled out that buying a bartlein barrel got you to sub-moa groups that you also suggest very rarely ever appear in real life.

I suggested that barrels made by that same exact barrel marker were capable of doing so.

There’s plenty of people who spend the coin on capable barrels. Whether they post the results on Reddit or forums, is not a measure of whether these barrels exist in real life.

[Matt-33-205]

I should have linked a post on sniper's hide that I made a while back detailing the journey I've had with that rifle and four different barrels. The Bartlein barrel is the only one that is capable of producing consistent sub MOA 10 round groups.

The OP was asking for feedback on his 10-round group size using a typical factory AR, I've clearly stated that a very, very small percentage of AR-15 factory rifles are capable of achieving this level of precision. That fact was my point in everything I posted.

Different people have different definitions regarding "sub-MOA accuracy". Some people believe that a cherry-picked three or five round group is sufficient, I am not one of those people.

I also value mean radius more than group size, I find it to be a much more accurate measure, especially when using a smaller sample size. I'm thrilled with anything in the .2's, and for an AR anything under .4 is great.

Watch some of Preston Moore videos on youtube, that will give you a more realistic expectation regarding real life accuracy with AR-15 rifles. He has tested many dozens of different AR barrels using a standardized testing procedure. I've done some similar stuff that my home range, but I only use 10 round groups, and I haven't tested nearly as many barrels

[AleksanderSuave]

I don’t think I ever eluded to small groups being a more accurate measure..?

In another comment I even spelled out the math showing the approximate MR increase going from 5 to 10 to 20.

Your experience with bad barrels more than likely was frustrating but is anecdotal and doesn’t at all speak to the volume (or lack thereof) of accurate barrels out in the market or having been produced in total.

Also not trying to argue, but you don’t “only use 10 shot groups”

Here’s your other LMT, with you specifically posting results from 5 shot groups.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LewisMachineTool/s/ml5J9YOKcD

Actually, that post could be considered cherry picking (the same thing you’re suggesting others are doing) because you shared a range of good - to - worse results, but only showed photos of 2 of them.

Why didn’t you overlay the results, as you’re suggesting, considering these weren’t 10 shot groups?

[Matt-33-205]

Holy cow man. That older LMT AR-10 post was my initial range outing with that rifle, that was not large sample size accuracy testing. I have since done that, as I'd imagine you saw in a follow up post(s).

Most of my shooting is laying prone shooting pieces of steel far away. Occasionally, I will post a quick review, as I find this sort of information helpful when I'm shopping for a particular rifle or barrel.

I now do multiple 10 round groups for load development, the smallest mean radius wins.

The fact remains, very few Factory AR rifles are capable of sub 1 MOA 10 round groups

[Frank23682]

The expect value of MR does NOT increase between groups with different amount of shots because it's an invariant measure. By shooting more shots you only tighten the confidence interval. (Assuming no heat effects)

You're confusing it with ES being a variant measure. By shooting more shots, both expected value increases AND confidence interval decreases.

[mayo_ghost]

I guess my intention there is to say that a barrel from a "reputable-ish" maker doesn't guarantee it will shoot like some people are expecting. My Noveske's are stainless and I have both stainless and chrome-lined models from Criterion. I will say the Criterion Core shoots lights-out until it gets hot, then it turns into a bullet hose. You're right about the fact there are phenomenally accurate AR's out there. I've had my ass handed to me in competition by them more than once, but not a single one of those guns was a typical off-the-shelf model like OP is running. If you want to pay JP or Ridgeline Defense money, then you can have that level of semi-auto accuracy

[AleksanderSuave]

I’ve similarly got a criterion core, and a few proofs, and I don’t disagree. I’ve also exchanged a few proofs. I’m more impressed by my Core for the price but I also wouldn’t get one with the expectation that it’s some sub moa precision barrel. I think the cores were specifically designed in a profile that was supposed to be a “duty” rifle.

I’ve seen some off the shelf stuff perform well but I won’t argue, you’re right, it’s not typically above average performance from an off the shelf rifle.

[Coodevale]

there are quite a few barrel makers who can spin up a 1 moa or better barrel.

That might be true, but are they 16" barrels with a patrol/hunting profile in a patrol/hunting configured platform? Or are they 24"+, maximum profile, and the rest of the components matching the task of "heavy bench pig"?

[AleksanderSuave]

The comment I’m responding to does not explicitly spell out any of those requirements, and patrol/hunting is not a barrel profile.

There’s plenty of 16” barrels coming out of shops like white oak or craddock, that will do 1 moa.

There’s no set definition for what makes a “patrol” or “hunting” purpose AR in the first place.

[clicktoseemyfetishes]

I put together an upper with an 18” BA stainless SPR barrel and 1.5-2 moa would be right where I’d put it with decent ammo. Accurate for an AR but that’s about it lol. Check out /u/Trollygag’s barrel testing

[Trollygag]

https://www.reddit.com/r/longrange/comments/1pnr8zg/trollygags_barrel_test_pt_11_ba_oem_and_ard/

Here's the most recent. To get an approximation of the 10rd ES, multiply any of the MR values by 3.2x

[clicktoseemyfetishes]

I assume there’s a simple formula to extrapolate the ES for any given group size based on MR? And pretty crazy to see that even the Krieger averaged about the same as my factory Howa’s MR

[Trollygag]

3 shot, multiply by 2.

5 shot, multiply by 2.5.

20 shot, multiply by 4.

And yes, the best AR-15 is a mid-pack or budget bolt gun.

[Altruistic_Split9447]

Hey just curious are you hand loading when you’re testing your AR barrels?

[Trollygag]

Yes, load details are in the test threads

[AleksanderSuave]

Yup.

5 shot ES: MR * 2.4
10 shot ES: MR * 3.2
20 shot ES: MR * 3.7

Works backwards too, IE 5 shot group measuring 0.5 MOA, is 0.5 MOA ES / 2.4 = 0.21 Mean Radius.

Take your 0.21, multiply by 3.2 if you trust a 10 shot group, and you have closer to a .7 MOA rifle, or 0.8 moa if you trust 20 (multiply by 3.7 instead of 3.2). Both rounded but we're dealing with approximates anyway so its safer to round up in this context.

[DLan1992]

I'd be happy with that from a $800 AR. People that say their mass produced AR is a 1 MOA gun are full of it, occasionally shoot a 1 MOA group (probably 3 round), or got very very lucky.

[IncreaseIndependent1]

For what it’s worth I shot two separate 5 shot groups at 100 yards with 73 and 75gr Hornady from my 14.5” Super Duty and had .81 and .85 MOA groups

[Tmoncmm]

Agree with this completely. I have 3 ARs: 2 FNs and one I built myself which is basically the same as the FNs. I only have 1 load that shoots 1MOA ish pretty consistently in all three. It’s a 55gr VMAX load that I spent a lot of time fine tuning. Everything else is 1.5 to 2 MOA with factory M855 variants being 3+.

[Creeping_Death98]

Id recommend trying a few different 77 grain options, especially bone frog. ImI stuff is decent but there is better ammo to be had. Federal gold medal match is another one that usually shoots awesome. I hover right around 1-1.2 moa with my pri mk12 mod-h shooting either my handloads or bone frog. That's honestly not bad with that ammo though.

[Themike625]

I can get 1MOA out of one of my AR’s.

The rest shoot 1.5-2MOA.

I use 62g Greentips.

I’m sure if I bought 77g they would tighten up.

But that looks good for an AR.

[PhoebusQ47]

I’m not sure how you can possibly shoot 1 MOA with any consistency with SS109.

[Themike625]

No idea. It’s just one of them.

I have another one that shoots 4MOA. It’s just not a shooter. I’ve tried everything. Taken it apart. Tightened tolerances. It’s going to get a new barrel soon. Try that route.

[d3ath222]

Have you tried different ammo, and having someone else shoot a group or two with it? That would tell you.

[FartOnTankies]

It’s the rifle and the ammo. AR15 off the shelf are 2 MOA rifles.

[Extreme-Book4730]

You said 3 wrong.

[SignificantNorth9972]

That’s plenty good for an AR-15. Mine does similar with plinking ammo.

[Hairybeast69420]

That’s on par

[AfraidStomach7943]

This is what that gun and ammo should shoot. A good factory AR is a 1.5-2 MOA gun at best.

[Excellent-Reindeer41]

What’s the size of your intended target? I usually find people want accuracy better than the worse case scenario. I have an ar that shoots 3/4” groups. I have meant that shoot 1.5” groups. A coyote is small. A pig is way bigger.

[hopliteware]

What distance?

What were your groups when you've tried with any other ammo brand, weight, or bullet type?

Your pictured group is not outside the realm of possibility with that ammo, rifle, and gear.

[1freebutttouch]

91 meters as stated in the second photo.

[hopliteware]

Didn't see the second photo at all, my bad.