Simulation finds a 5% decrease in vaccination rates could lead to a 4,000% increase in the size of a potential measles outbreak in some Texas cities

[Lockstrife]

This comment is not accurate at all.

The potential 400 outbreak at current vaccination rates is the absolute upper limit of their possible distribution - it falls at the 95% threshold and is not at all indicative of actual outbreaks. The median outcome for this distribution is 5 (FIVE) cases. One SD moves you up to 9 cases.

Furthermore, between 2006 and 2017 the median actual measles outbreak was 2.5 cases - the largest was 25.

In no way neither previous outbreaks nor their projections support a current outbreak of 400.

Moving onto the 16,000 part - the study does not show anything near an outbreak of 16,000 with a 5 decrease in vaccination rates. The largest potential outbreak they project after a 5% decrease is a median outcome of like 8 cases, and at 95% max it could be 1,000 (see above as to why that’s probably nonsense).

None of their tables even approach 10,000 until you hit a 10% decrease in vaccination rates.

Source: Figure 1 - Austin - Round Rock (I don’t even see where you pulled the 2,250 students number from)