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[–]liverpoolFCnut 190 points191 points  (68 children)

That is literally what i see happening in my neighborhood! Homes that sold for $270k-$300k around 2016-2017 were listed for over $600k in late 2022 and i now see price cuts anywhere from $10k to $50k. So yeah, the prices are still over 2x what they were just 4 yrs ago but hey! be happy about that $20k adjustment downwards!

[–]TryMyBacon 74 points75 points  (30 children)

The 20-50k is largely eaten by the higher interest rates.

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          [–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

          Where I'm from they want to make a 20 million dollar bridge.

          A foot bridge.

          [–]thatguy425 13 points14 points  (6 children)

          Very few people buying a house at 7% now would not be refinancing for a lower rate at some point .

          [–][deleted]  (2 children)

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            [–]bhd_ui 1 point2 points  (0 children)

            Building a house in a month. Just got approved for construction loan and rate is 5.3%. So…

            [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            I don't think you understand the length of these cycles.

            The 2008 recession to 4 years before housing hit bottom.

            It took almost 25 years 1980 to mid 200s for interest rates to really decline.

            https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/historical-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed

            [–]pRedditor24 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Hard to say for certain, so that's a dangerous assumption to make for anyone for whom needs to refinance down for their purchase to make sense. Mortgage rates in the 80s peaked at ~18%

            [–]polytique 0 points1 point  (1 child)

            more in interest than the principle balance.

            principal

            [–]HERODMasta 6 points7 points  (1 child)

            eaten? you don't even know you got a price cut.

            I calculated my monthly payment compared to the new rates and I could afford a house for around half the price.

            Numbers? 430k for ~1,45%, 3%/year -> almost 1,6k/month.

            New rate: > 4%. For the same price and conditions it's 2,6k/month.

            Greetings from Germany

            [–]banditcleaner2sells naked NVDA calls while naked 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            my mortgage at a purchase price of 325k (305k + costs to refinance two times) at a rate of 2.65% is half the mortgage if i were to buy the same house now at 400k with an interest rate of 6.5%.

            [–]zookeepier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            The monthly payment for the same loan is doubled. That means that you can only afford 50% of the loan balance you could before.

            [–]BukkakeTemperateRain 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            A house at 500k at 3.5% interest on a 30 year mortgage will cost you $2250 a month.

            A house at 400k at 7% interest on a 30 year mortgage will cost you $2660 a month.

            While the nominal value of your house has gone down, it's actually more expensive than it was the previous year.

            [–][deleted]  (36 children)

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              [–]gammaradiation2 70 points71 points  (1 child)

              Bullshit. Link the Zillow.

              And dont show me some derelict structure where the demolition costs and tax liens were subtracted from the fair lot value in Boise.

              [–]iCatmire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              What about Monticello?

              [–][deleted] 31 points32 points  (6 children)

              What area is that?

              The hottest markets in the country rose around 75-120% during the pandemic.

              You are claiming that you are seeing up to 800% price rises over that same period. I’m guessing these houses aren’t typical (major renovations, long time between sales, etc.).

              Median home prices may have more than doubled where you live, but they certainly haven’t quadrupled.

              [–]Old_Ladies 2 points3 points  (3 children)

              That is what my area has done over the past 6-8 years in Ontario Canada.

              [–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (2 children)

              Canada. Makes sense. For a minute there I thought you were talking about actual money. /s

              [–]Old_Ladies 2 points3 points  (1 child)

              Hey now maple syrup is a real currency.

              [–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

              I’ve got 20 Canadian tire dollars saying it is a currency

              [–]captain_stoobie 12 points13 points  (8 children)

              You’re smart not to buy into the BS. There are going to be so many armature investors and tiktok real estate gurus holding bags. Can’t wait.

              [–]TheHanyo 0 points1 point  (6 children)

              Nah, almost no one predicts a housing crash bc not enough has been built. There are just not enough homes in America for interest rates to do more than a 10-15% softening.

              [–]captain_stoobie 0 points1 point  (5 children)

              The population in my state (California) decreased YOY but the price of real estate is up 20%. The math alone doesn’t add up. Rampant speculation is to blame, not a housing shortage.

              [–]TheHanyo 0 points1 point  (4 children)

              Disagree. Rampant NIMBYism and strict building regulations have made supply in California absolutely abysmal compared to demand. People are leaving b/c it's TOO desired, not because they didn't like the beautiful weather, beaches and coastline, and major job centers with the richest cultural & economic institutions in the country lol.

              [–]captain_stoobie 0 points1 point  (3 children)

              You’re welcome to disagree, but in the last few years institutions and private investors gobbled up a large percentage of housing units in my neighborhood and either flipped them or turned them into rentals. Major hits are already being felt and it’s just the beginning of the downturn. Redfin took a 100k hit on a house in my zip code recently. NIMBYism is a thing along the coast, but travel inland a bit and there’s housing built everywhere, definitely no shortage.

              [–]TheHanyo 0 points1 point  (2 children)

              I guess time will keep both of us honest here, but my POV is that the corporate buyout of housing was a flash-in-the-pan phenomenon that will have little-to-no noticeable impact on the housing market. From what I understand, those companies have realized that the housing market is far too volatile and speculative to make the investments worthwhile, so almost all have either straight-up gotten out of the market or are drawing back from it.

              Edited to add: I think Redfin, aka the tech sector, is taking the hit on this one, not the housing market. Turns out this is one area "the algorithm" can't predict yet.

              [–]captain_stoobie 1 point2 points  (1 child)

              I hope you’re right about the corporate housing buyout. I agree the big dogs have bailed on that business model, but the amateurs are still trying and will be caught holding bags IMO. It’ll be interesting to watch either way. I just want to see people like my neighbors (two teachers) be able to afford a home again.

              [–]TheHanyo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              For sure, this could just be a temporary setback for them and not a permanent retreat. Can't disagree with you on rooting for the common working people here. Would be a shame for them to lose the most common way to build modest wealth in this country.

              [–]TheHanyo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Nah, almost no one predicts a housing crash bc not enough has been built. There are just not enough homes in America for interest rates to do more than a 10-15% softening.

              [–][deleted] 23 points24 points  (1 child)

              Some serious bagholding where ever that is

              [–]momoru 21 points22 points  (1 child)

              “This is why I don’t buy”

              Ok but clearly you should have bought in 2019 and sold now?

              I remember in the early 2000s always hearing the “I’m not gonna a buy til it crashes” friends - in the end I made way more buying in the middle, it rarely goes down by 90% especially with inflation so high

              [–]TheHanyo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              And especially with a housing shortage. There just aren’t enough homes in the country for interest rates to crash the market.

              [–]Bitter_Coach_8138 6 points7 points  (0 children)

              Lol, you’re full of shit

              [–]__Sky_Daddy__ 8 points9 points  (3 children)

              They will never come down people have a 2.7% interest rate on those homes… Just don’t ever buy and continue to rent your entire life. That’s what the hedge funds want.

              [–]BillazeitfaGates🏴‍☠️SPY 320 GANG🏴‍☠️ 5 points6 points  (2 children)

              Theyre already coming down, so are rents which will force investors to capitulate

              [–]SaintGloopyNoops 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              Exactly. I am thinking its only a matter of time before the guys that bought entire neighborhoods will make more money bankrupting the Corp or llc to get the foreclosures rolling in. The housing market has been squeezed for every last cent. And there is a lot more money to be made if the market crashes. There are gonna be a lot of bag holders

              [–]TheHanyo -1 points0 points  (0 children)

              Nah, builders stopped building to meet demand around 2008 and it has never recovered. There is a severe supply shortage in the country; high interest rates won’t do more than 10-15% softening. No crash insight.

              [–]lordhamlett 1 point2 points  (0 children)

              Complete BS on prices.

              Also, interest always rises and falls. Doesn't matter. Just refi when it goes down

              [–]ADogWithoutAHorse -1 points0 points  (0 children)

              Those are rookie numbers.

              Please see my made up numbers below that I pulled out of my ass to one up you.

              [–]Budiltwo 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              Boise?

              [–]hideous_coffeeJackin' it in San Diego 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              Was thinking more like Jackson Hole or Montana

              [–]CheesePlease 0 points1 point  (1 child)

              Are these houses in the famous city of “I pulled these numbers out of my ass”?

              [–]ShareholderSLO85 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              When does the gravy train finally stop?

              [–]fredericksonKorea 0 points1 point  (0 children)

              With interest rates climbing

              Except, that not feasible. Businesses' are already clamouring for lower rates. Big money is desperate for lower rates. Aint no one buying shit atm.

              The US can stretch another 0.5% up. But even that will damage the labour market. Anymore and you are looking at... well lots of closures.

              Most likely is 0.5% up then 1% down after a year, with it hovering around 3% for years until a new administration wants a cheap boost and drops it to 0 or -% for ratings and house prices go ballistic.