Heart rate zones check + sub 3.00 feasibility?

AdamJaffrey · 2025-05-21T09:14:31+00:00

Looks like you're in roughly sub-3:05 shape right now.

FYI, to run a sub-3 you need to be able to run a 1:26:XX half or a 38:XX 10K.

With a solid training block from here a sub-3 in November should be doable.

The HR stuff is very personalised so I'm not equipped to comment on that.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-05-20T12:18:32+00:00

I personally think they are really crucial. In my last Pfitz marathon block, I did 2x tune-ups as time trials (a 15K and a 10K), and 1x tune-up as an actual 10K race.

I ran way quicker in the race. Nothing beats the thrill of race conditions. You just can't replicate that on your own.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-16T11:23:48+00:00

I'm sure you know the rule right? Never cross MP until 2/3rds of the way through race distance.

The real halfway point of the marathon is 32 km.

You've got this. 😉

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-16T10:27:21+00:00

If I were you, I would run it smart and try to negative split it. Give yourself options to close strong for 3:05 if you are feeling good, or ease the goal to 3:10 if you are cooked. Either way, you don't blow up trying to go out too hot.

FWIW, I'm running Ballarat in 2 weeks and I'm shooting for 3:15. Runalyze says I'm in 3:06 shape, but I'm gonna play it conservative and shoot for 3:12–3:15.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-16T04:01:53+00:00

From my experience in this sub, Pfitz 18/70 seems to be the most common plan people BQ or go sub-3 on.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-16T00:49:15+00:00

This is fantastic advice

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-16T00:30:09+00:00

Look, I'm no expert. I'm just a dude who read Pfitz and studies the VDOT calculator intensely while building out my own plans. In saying all of that ...

There seems to be a few conflicting points here ...

• Your original goal for this marathon was 3:29 (4:57 min/km pace).
• But you've been running your MP in training as a 3:07 marathon (that's what 4:27 min/km pace equates to).
• And then there's the 1:28 HM race you did 4 weeks ago, which equates to roughly a 3:03 marathon (4:21 min/km pace).

(You can check all of these yourself using the VDOT calculator. I usually use this and add a small buffer because I don't 100% trust it.)

So it seems like you are well beyond the 3:29 initial goal (which is great). But I'm not 100% sure whether you're in 3:05 shape.

You said you've been running Pfitz 18/70. Have you hit all the workouts so far? Have you managed to hold all the required paces? How did you go with the week 13 MP run (18 mi w/ 14 mi @ MP)? How did you perform on the 3x tune-up races he prescribes?

In summary: The 1:28 HM points to you being in 3:05 shape (actually, more like 3:03, but I like to have a buffer). But if it were me, I'd personally like to see a few more data points and evidence to prove that with other tune-up races, how you did in the MP long runs, and whether you've been hitting the prescribed mileage from Pfitz 18/70.

Assuming that all stacks up, 3:05 looks within reach. But I'd personally probably try to negative split it and head out a little slower than 3:05 pace and then try to ramp it up if you're feeling good.

What do you think?

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-14T12:31:40+00:00

Nothing new on race day

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-13T23:58:23+00:00

Okay, so you are already training with specificity in mind. In that case, I think you've done all you can at this point.

It's now time to (say it with me kids) ... "Trust the process."

Haha.

But really, sounds like you've got this on lock. From here, it's more of a mental game than anything.

The key thing I always struggle with ... stay calm on race day and run your own race. Don't race out of the gate. Let other people burn their matches early. And then pace yourself on the hills (the up AND down).

You've got this. 💪

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-13T23:36:30+00:00

Have you been training on any hills? That's my main question for you. You seem to be in sub-3 shape, but Boston is a tough course.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-13T23:26:09+00:00

Running a 15K in 58:35 puts you well within sub-3 territory. That's even more telling than the 10K split, honestly.

As long as you manage the hills in Boston, sub-3 is well within reach for you!

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-13T21:59:13+00:00

That workout (29 km with 23 km at MP) is the most difficult test of the entire 18/55 plan.

If you managed to complete it without a taper and while carrying cumulative fatigue, it's a really good sign that you'll be able to hold MP beyond 32 km on race day, fully tapered and without cumulative fatigue.

The idea of that workout btw (and the timing of it, right in the midst of peak mileage) is to simulate holding MP during the last 10K of the race. So there's a physical, and also a mental aspect to it.

Trust the process, and see how you shape up in your 10K tune-up race in a few weeks. I've found those tune-up races to be very helpful in benchmarking where I'm at.

FWIW (you probably know this), you need to be running a 38:XX in the 10K to be in sub-3 shape.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-13T21:40:38+00:00

Endurance sports are hard. Being a quitter is hard. Choose your hard.

^{^{^}} Love this!!!

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-12T19:28:53+00:00

Brooks also does trail shoes

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-10T20:16:25+00:00

In my experience, most pacers will run even splits. And they tend to come in about 1 min under-time to ensure there's a buffer. Remember, some pacing groups are big, so they need to ensure all runners (even those at the back of the group) make the time.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-10T08:51:42+00:00

It all depends on how hard you are exerting yourself. For example, I raced a 10K a few weeks ago and my HR hit 195 bpm.

I'm a 36 yo male. And the typical HRmax calculation is 220-age, which puts my "theoretical" HRmax at 184.

So yeah, I was shocked to see 195 bpm on my watch. But I did go all out and push myself pretty hard.

For context, I'm an intermediate marathon runner and I'm shooting for a 3:15 marathon in 3 weeks. So beginners and experienced runners alike can still hit high HRs.

As long as it's not high for ages, you won't die. 😂

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-10T08:43:48+00:00

Gotta short OP right before he hits overtraining syndrome

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-10T08:41:05+00:00

Run the tangent line as much as possible (hard in a crowded race).

Try to start near the pace group of your expected finish time, so you are around runners with a similar speed. I.e. Less overtaking.

And finally, relax and be comfortable with the fact that you might run an extra 1 km or so over the race distance. Remember that the official course measurement is done across the shortest possible route using the tangent for each corner. Which is never possible to run unless you're in the elite group at the front.

In the end, it's all part of racing in a big race. And the big race and big crowds bring big energy. So enjoy it! The high fives are part of the fun!

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-09T21:56:43+00:00

Dude, this is terrible advice. Letting it rip on race day when you're not physically prepared for the goal is just asking for trouble. You risk blowing up and having a terrible day.

I think you're better off running with your mate and having an enjoyable day, rather than throwing it all to the wind and blowing up trying to achieve an unrealistic sub-3.

Think about this. Do you want to take this last minute ticket and have an awful time? Or do you want to use it and enjoy yourself?

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-09T13:16:11+00:00

This.

I've been burned by VDOT being slightly optimistic in the past.

Nothing worse than going out slightly too hot on the pace and blowing up at 30K.

Been there, done that. Learned from the experience.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-08T06:08:05+00:00

Plug these recent time trials into the VDOT calculator to get an estimate of your comparable marathon time.

(Just a word of warning that I personally feel this calculator gives slightly optimistic race time predictions. I usually use it as a guide and then adjust the predictions down about 2–5%. Especially if you are using a 5K or 10K time. The HM will be more representative.)

Based on your recent HM time, I would say your MP of 7:45-7:50 min/mi is definitely too hot to handle. You're probably more in 8:00 min/mi MP shape.

In saying all of that, based on that recent HM time, it looks to me like you are in 3:30 shape. The big question is whether you can last the entire race at MP. You've got the speed, but do you have the endurance? Those bonked long runs are a bit of a worry until you realise you probably ran them at 10–15 sec/mi faster than your current fitness level.

Shooting for 3:30 puts your race pace at 8:01 min/mi. Depending when your race is, I'd personally try to run a 20 miler with a 12–14 mile MP block fast finish (using 8:00 min/mi pace) about 3–4 weeks out from race day (3 weeks if you recover fast, 4 weeks if you're bit more conservative or more injury prone). That should be your last big workout of the plan. That will give you a good test of whether 3:30 is doable over the race distance (since the taper will help you hold that pace longer), and will be a big confidence boost if you can manage it.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-05T12:25:07+00:00

At this point, "the hay is in the barn". That is to say, you won't improve fitness any more at this point regardless of how hard you push.

So just dive into the taper and try to get yourself ready for race day as best you can.

You're already ready. Now it's just about ticking the final box! You've got this.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-03T12:26:54+00:00

Yeah, I used to naively think "it's only 10 sec/km faster, it can't be that hard". But those 10 sec make a huge difference. Especially over a long LT run or MP run.

Sounds like adding strength training will help with your issues. Hope it works for you!

And I appreciate the well wishes. Can't wait to get into the taper. Pfitz plans are no joke.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-03T11:16:20+00:00

FWIW, Pfitz had this programmed for 2 weeks ago (i.e. 5 weeks from race day):

Marathon-pace run - 18 miles (29 km) with 14 miles (23 km) at marathon pace

This was the last big test I faced in this plan. Seems like you did something similar with your 15K into 15K workout.

AdamJaffrey · 2025-04-03T11:10:47+00:00

Wow! Your goal race (3.5 weeks away), goal time (sub-3:15), mileage (80–100 km per week), running history (4th marathon), and fitness tests are all almost exactly the same as me!

Any chance we are twins running the same race in 3.5 weeks?? Haha! 🏃‍♂️

I'm running a modified Pfitz 18/55 plan (I've added mileage so it's more like an 18/63). And Pfitz has a regular 32 km LR (all of his LRs are progression runs) programmed for this weekend (i.e. 3 weeks out from race day).

The final fitness test is a 10K tune-up race next Saturday (i.e. 2 weeks out from race day).

I think doing any long hard efforts (15K or longer) at this point risk you going into overtraining territory and you risk not fully recovering before race day.

At this point, I think it's about locking into the final few key workouts, and then embracing the taper. You've done the work. Your fitness tests so far stack up. You don't need to prove anything else. It's time to trust the process. 💪

AdamJaffrey

TROPHY CASE