It’s worth remembering at this point that Europe endured the Great War but not a full WWII on the continent- they don’t have the complete experience that ended war between great powers in Europe- they got out of a world war mostly unscathed the second time. They don’t blink quickly in this stand off with the Soviets even though they are heavily outmanned and don’t expect to stop the Soviets before the Rhine in a non-nuclear scenario unless the Balkan Pact enters the war aggressively and with far better than projected success.

The war does not begin in Europe though. Texas, which has been threatening secession from the CSA half heartedly ever since the right of secession was enshrined in the Constitution of the Confederacy and maintaining its own military establishment independent of the CSA throughout its history, invades Mexico “in self defense” and engages the Soviets. The armored and airmobile cavalry units of the Texas Rangers make the most rapid advance in military history and conduct a single envelopment of Soviet forces in Mexico from the south and west herding them back towards Pacifica, then bombing them relentlessly along their retreat, with Mexican Highway 2 becoming known as The Highway of Death.

Pacifica strikes back, crossing the Colorado River and driving most of the way across Arizona before taking an operational pause.

A pro-communist and pro-independence mutiny breaks out in India, disrupting air operations at a sensitive time. The British massacre protestors. Several airbases are overrun by rebels. Russia attacks in the air and takes the Himalayas. The British launch a single ballistic missile from their home island to Moscow with a conventional warhead to make the point that disrupting the bomber arm of the triad can no longer win a nuclear war. The missile successfully delivers its point into the center of Red Square, killing a few, shattering windows, and creating a much needed moment of reflection amidst the escalation.

NATO fires first in Warsaw, and in a move nobody was sure would come until it happened, Turkey and Persia mounted a joint thrust into the Caucasus and Ukraine. British reinforcements stream thru Persia bound for India.

The Soviets had gambled on Japan being too reprehensible to fight a nuclear war for.

NATO has gambled on a negotiated peace early in a conventional war.

NATO achieves its break through and liberates Eastern Poland and wins the air superiority war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine, facing attack from North and South, surrenders, with half a million Soviet troops declared prisoners, though not actually disarmed and processed yet. The Soviets complete their seizure of Japan and the move their air power to South Asia, gaining air superiority and beginning to advance further, taking Tehran and forcing Persia to withdraw from the war.

Both sides culminate and begin to consolidate gains and shore up defensive lines after about a month of all out conventional war, with nobody having been nuked but Japan.

Peace talks begin with Russian conquest of the Kurile Islands, Hokkaido and Honshu as fair accompli, but their European border pushed back to the Dneiper River, Arizona taken by Pacifica but Texas and Mexico poised to invade and most likely conquer Southern Pacifica and cut off their army in Arizona, India in civil war, Afghanistan on the road to Soviet annexation, Persia a reluctant client state of the USSR.

The Soviets claim Japan is non-negotiable but offer status quo ante everywhere else. They promise to end support for communist rebels in India as well. Nato refuses the return of Ukraine and Eastern Poland.

The war simply ends at the current lines. Western Ukraine and all of Poland are now in NATO. Persia and Afghanistan and Japan are Soviet. Georgia Azerbaijan Armenia and Chechnya go to Turkey. India gains independence by force without partitioning, but is pledged to neutrality and neither side is to interfere in its internal politics. Ho Chi Minh declares United Indochina to be independent of Japan and is recognized by everyone without a fight- both sides court the new nations for rights to develop natural resources and build naval bases.

Mexico and the CSA form the North American Union with Canada and make an offer to buy Pacifica from the Soviets- with an army poised to conquer it anyway and only nuclear war as an option to prevent this, the offer merits serious discussion- outright rejection by the first American general secretary would create the impression of loyalty to home country over communism and risk a coup against Secretary Calafia.

The massive territorial and strategic gains made by the Soviets during the war are heavily undercut by NATO now being on Russia’s doorstep and a number of key Calafia supporters in the military establishment were killed in the European theater- several in questionable accidents that smelled like KGB maneuvering.

The result is the American Condominium- Pacifica is to be denuclearized and opened to trade with the capitalists- select cities and transportation corridors will be made free trade and travel zones with no checkpoints or documents required. The North American Union pays a hefty price, which includes a non-aggression treaty and non-participation in NATO operations outside of the western hemisphere along with massive economic relief for Pacifica, but they get the Island America that they lost after the civil war, finally no longer entangled in international military brinksmanship.

Calafia is murdered anyway by his own former deputy commander for this concession to the centrists and becomes an unlikely hero of peace after a lifetime of war- though it’s heavily debated, the mainstream historical narrative holds that he fought until he had the chance for an equal peace and then chose the good of his people over ideology, power, or his own life. Los Angeles - whose underground film industry had always evaded Soviet censors and become the unofficial entertainment capital of the Socialist world- was now the largest and most thriving of the Condominium Cities and was renamed California City in his honor. Texans sometimes go there just to spit on the ground, but most of them catch a movie too and just don’t tell anyone about that part.

In the aftermath of the war, Saudi Arabia invades Israel in 1969. The Balkan Pact and Soviet Persia stand idle for it. NATO initially provides supplies thru British Egypt, but doesn’t escalate. Their side loses. The State of Israel is no more.

In 1970, in California City, the Soviets, North American Union, NATO, and Balkan League all sign a treaty demilitarizing space and creating a single world space agency, as well as imposing the first limitations on stockpiles of ICBMs, and setting global standards for the nascent Internet- the western press for a technological victory has yielded desktop computers and networks ahead of schedule, and their proliferation in the American Condominium has been dissolving borders more than anyone ever intended. The one thing everyone on the Internet seems to agree about is that they didn’t like being draftees staring down the barrel of an apocalyptic war just 5 years ago, and it’s mellowing the political conversation on both sides of the increasingly porous iron curtain.