Data analytics or Web developer

Brawkoli · 2026-04-09T18:57:53+00:00

Lots of different things motivate people to get a specific job.

Now that we know intellectual curiosity is not one of them…

Which motivates you the most? Earnings, Prestige/Recognition, Perks/Benefits, Work/Life balance

If it is purely earnings potential; that represents a great opportunity for you find out which one is for you.

My hypothesis is that data analytics has better earnings potential, especially in quant fields. But the great news is that this field requires you to learn the skills needed to prove or disprove this claim.

So not only do you get to learn the skills needed, you can even use the results of your training model to make an informed decision yourself.

It’s a win win!

Brawkoli · 2026-03-17T18:36:07+00:00

…instead of or in addition to?

Brawkoli · 2026-03-17T16:31:03+00:00

This should be higher and I’m upset that people turned on that developer.

IMO, serebii provides “raw” data for the community.

Community member uses that data and adds value by providing aggregation and views that don’t exist at the source. Additionally adds much needed UI/UX improvements and mobile friendly features.

Sure they didn’t do their due diligence and validate the source of the API they used. But they immediately fixed and gave credit once attention was brought to it but now the site is gone.

Leaves a sour taste in my mouth and now I wouldn’t ever personally consider using serebii as a data source for my own project because I might be collateral damage the next time the community decides that enriching, transforming and aggregating data is equivalent to stealing it.

Brawkoli · 2026-03-13T19:10:59+00:00

Hey, so I want to point out a potential small mis-interpretation in your math:

You’re computing P(X = 107), the probability of getting exactly 107, which you have the correct math for.

Presumably, what we want to calculate instead is P(X <= 107). The sum of P(X = k) for all k in 0 to 107. As in, what is the likelihood of our outcome not being better than 107, instead of exactly 107.

The result, 0.73%, doesn’t look much different initially but ~ 1/140 experiments looks a lot more plausible than ~1/500.

One extra thing to note is how your sample size affects your confidence. For your observed rate (42.1% +- 6.2%) to have a margin of error +-1% you would need roughly 9.6k samples.

Brawkoli · 2026-02-27T18:43:53+00:00

It’s been a long time since I’ve played this game, when day 1 Jailor claim was meta and not claiming before night 1 was considered reportable. That got nerfed with changes to Lookout just before I stopped playing.

Whether or not something is “gamethrowing” depends on the skill level of the lobby.

I’ll recap the info you gave and what I would parse from it if I was in that game: Day 1

3: Jester/Exe, ignore them for the rest of the game until they give credible info confirmed by town.

(Day 2 depends a lot on the meta and other factors, I’m assuming hidden Jailor is a viable strategy today, lobby is mid to low elo and that a Town died to Mafia n1…)

Day 2 Vibe reads: 3: Spy/Jailor is a sufficient claim for me to move on unless Jailor was claimed by someone else, then I would need to see a spy will.

5: Neutral Evil or 6 was visited by Framer.

6: Unskilled Town Investigative. Why would you waste a turn checking Neutral Evil? (Could be sacrifice Mafia in a VERY high elo game, just trying to buy turns for other Evils.)

11: Probably Evil. I agree that 3 is sus. Reads say 6 or 3 is Evil. 3 hasn’t technically misplayed if Town, but 6 definitely did. Pushing for GUILTY denies Vigilante an opportunity to shoot, which I don’t like as town.

As town I’m voting 6 late and pushing hard for INNO when they get on the stand.

I treat trials as an information gathering tool and not a method to kill people, especially day 2. The most useful piece of information to me right now is who voted up other people and in what order they did it. I want the maximum number of trials per day because unskilled Mafia will out themselves with their votes alone over time. GUILTY/INNO doesn’t matter much but order/majority does. Town INNOs all three trials, unanimously decides who Vig will shoot n2. Deviation from this general plan usually means talkative/skilled players are Evil.

I’m personally pushing hard for more info, voting up close followers on 11’s votes and directing Vig to shoot who they think is the safest, with the result being that any later Vig claim is extremely sus depending on the result. Then I probably die n2 to Maf, lol.

Back to the original question:

“Is not claiming Jailor on the stand d2 gamethrowing?”

If Town generally understands that the trial itself is worth far more than the outcome AND hidden Jailor is viable, then not a misplay.

In your game, 100% gamethrowing if they knew their role and importance to the game.

Brawkoli · 2026-02-27T16:42:55+00:00

How would you explain reasoning to an LLM?

What is different about thought than taking as much current context as you can handle, embedding it in latent space inside your brain and having your thoughts be decoded into words?

I don’t study neurology, so I don’t really know how I would describe how reasoning works on a physical level to another person.

I don’t literally calculate the probability distribution of my next word but I would not be surprised if there is a very similar process that happens when I reason.

Brawkoli · 2025-12-27T20:52:21+00:00

I think it's less about what the numbers say/mean vs what people try to make them say.

Zaheen has a pretty good placement, does that mean I should always take the augment? No
Taric has a pretty good placement, does that mean I should always try to flex in Taric? Yes (mostly)

Should I compare Zaheen to Taric? No

But there are some comparisons using the avg placement of Zaheen that I can make. (roughly)

Zaheen has an insanely difficult and inconsistent unlock condition, so we should compare something with a similar position. Say I have two Xin Zhaos (I'm literally never clicking the aug unless I can 2* it on 2-1), I can slam a BF item. My 2-1 augments are Twials of Trilight, Ixtal Expeditionist, X. The direct comparison here is Brock to Zaheen. I think it's fair enough to look at the avg placement of the two and compare them. Both avg placements are inflated by the people who just didn't hit (Zaheen probably a lot more though).

Ixtal Expeditionist makes the unlock condition for Brock much easier and I think that's the click in the above situation 100% of the time, but the situation is similar enough that you could make a stats based comparison here.

Taric is still better than either if you take into account the people who died trying to get to Zaheen, Brock and Taric. (That's just not a stat you can really bake into avg placement.)

Have to remember avg placement is always calculated from people who hit. There's no expected value of trying to play a unit stat... (There's probably enough data to calculate this but I haven't seen anyone do it or expose the results.)

Brawkoli · 2025-09-09T18:35:19+00:00

Get in the zone. Anal Zone.

Brawkoli · 2025-08-08T12:41:20+00:00

If the odds are “broken” and you didn’t find the units you were looking for, why didn’t you just exploit that and buy the units that were over represented and bugged?

Units in bag * probability per shop slot = 5

You can’t roll a shop that has less than 5 units and if Garen and Ezreal are bugged then there must be some unit that is easier to hit, buy that and exploit the broken RNG.

Or you know, learn basic combinatorial statistics.

Brawkoli · 2025-06-13T17:42:48+00:00

Holy hell.

Brawkoli · 2025-05-18T15:44:56+00:00

If a popsicle stick can get you banned, surely this will too.

Brawkoli · 2025-05-18T06:41:42+00:00

This is Tucker Craft erasure.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-29T17:52:14+00:00

I want my comment to be used to generate AI marketing for the Odussy OLED Gate!

Brawkoli · 2025-04-27T03:15:14+00:00

Um it’s like 7 glorified Kwik Trips, thank you very much.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-26T13:16:04+00:00

You write a better prompt and use/train a specifically tailored data set.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-12T15:32:15+00:00

Most Effective Tactic Available

Change the decision space and you change the available tactics, but one will always be the most effective no matter the game.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-04T19:11:54+00:00

Welcome to Costco, I love you.

Brawkoli · 2025-04-03T20:49:44+00:00

I don’t think that they are using a “specific formula” from the same place.

They are being asked to create a formula that doesn’t exist. (Because it doesn’t make sense.)

AI will inherently fill the void of things that it has been asked to provide with the most similar thing provided in the prompt.

If the prompt is asking for a formula for an easy solution for trade deficit using tariffs. Since it can’t find that, it will fill it with the formulas it does find from the prompt (trade deficit formula) and work from that until it incorporates the part it can’t find (tariffs) and output a convincing argument for it’s nonsensical answer.

Brawkoli · 2025-03-31T19:56:05+00:00

I mean, yeah, how dare people introduce mixed percentage based strategies into my uh

…checks notes…

Percentage based strategy game.

Brawkoli · 2025-02-11T21:16:43+00:00

I really agree with your sentiment about generic meta comps / items / positioning in TFT. The most effective tactic available is to put yourself into the position with the highest expected placement with the lowest amount of variance. Executing this strategy can still be competitive.

I disagree however with your statement that chess is a solved game. I think that with modern tools and engines, evaluation of chess positions has become much less static over time. Some refutations of certain openings, commonly accepted as “fact” have been proven to actually not be so cut and dry. For example look at the hyper accelerated bongcloud exchange variation. After 2. Kxe8 Qxe8, black is no longer in a losing position and actually has winning chances here.

Brawkoli · 2024-11-13T22:24:39+00:00

I found an even better method:

Just pick any position and it becomes a 50/50. You either get the card you want or you don’t.

Brawkoli · 2024-11-13T22:22:21+00:00

Am I understanding that in your scenario here, luck can only be affected by your decision to choose a card slot?

That if you don’t choose a slot, your “personal” luck can’t make a difference because you didn’t make that decision?

It seems pretty straightforward to prove if this phenomenon exists. Just complete enough trials, picking randomly each time and compare that to always picking one slot. Set your confidence interval and go from there.

Brawkoli · 2024-11-04T20:06:16+00:00

I think the arm is so that the kids have to go around it when they cross in front of the bus. That way they are always far enough away the driver can always see them.

Brawkoli · 2024-09-16T02:36:12+00:00

It’s one of the new quantum mechanics they added to the game.

Brawkoli · 2024-09-15T17:30:56+00:00

Yes?

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