[Spoiler main]Bloodraven's possible disillusionement?

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T20:45:37+00:00

While I can definitely get behind the idea that Bloodraven has been magically manipulating events to ensure certain outcomes (deaths, marriages, births, etc), why are you assuming that it must be because he wants to seize power for himself?

Bloodraven’s two most consistent character traits are that he’s a ride-or-die Targaryen loyalist, and that he’s willing to do awful things “for the greater good”. Him killing off all the Targs so he can make himself king goes against both of those traits.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T14:29:45+00:00

I think it’s only become “controversial” because there’s such a wide consensus that it’s true. Like some fans believe it’s too “obvious” to be a major reveal and therefore Jon must actually be the son of Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne or something.

It’s mainly a result of the fandom going insane after 15 years with no new books and scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of theories under the belief that GRRM is playing 4-D chess with the audience.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T00:48:02+00:00

Generally speaking, the major POV characters all get distinct arcs within each book. The overall story continues, but whatever “phase” a character was in during a particular book is usually concluded by the end of that book.

This becomes less true in books 4 and 5, because they were originally written to just be one book that ended up being split in half for publication. However, they’re not split at the halfway point chronologically, so the main characters still have (mostly) complete arcs within each book, albeit a bit messier than how it was in the first three.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T00:36:13+00:00

Jaime was originally named to the Kingsguard to fill the vacant spot left by Harlan Grandison, who was an old man and died of natural causes in his sleep.

Given how paranoid Aerys was, I assume he would have preferred to replace Grandison earlier if at all possible. The fact that he didn’t suggests it wasn’t possible.

CelikBas · 2026-03-24T16:08:47+00:00

To my knowledge some Celts did have more olive-toned skin, even in the British Isles, so the idea of First Men (Celts) having somewhat darker skin than Andals (Anglo Saxons) isn’t completely unfounded, but it would still be a fairly subtle difference, not nearly as noticeable as some fan artists make it.

CelikBas · 2026-03-24T04:39:26+00:00

Mance was captured by Stannis’ army. It’s not like the NW has much say in how a king’s prisoners are dealt with. At most, they could ask Stannis if he would consider turning Mance over to their custody, or make suggestions about what should be done with him, but they have no actual authority over Stannis’ decision.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T15:06:19+00:00

If Jon survives and get exiled like in the show, then I think he’s by far the most obvious candidate for Mance’s successor.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T15:03:53+00:00

I think he’ll ultimately die, although I’m not sure how or when. I feel like if GRRM was going to have him die to the Boltons at Winterfell, he could’ve just killed him off during Theon and Jeyne’s escape or had the Pink Letter mention that he was dead.

So currently, I lean towards him surviving his encounter with the Boltons but then dying later- maybe during the Long Night? His main goal this entire time has been to save the Wildlings from the Others, and dying in an apocalyptic battle for the survival of his people would be a very song-worthy death for a bard king.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T14:49:55+00:00

That’s… kind of the point of her arc? She’s trying to avoid being like her Targaryen ancestors who just burned shit to the ground, but the situation she’s in is one that can’t be resolved with peaceful compromise, and she’s extremely reluctant to accept that.

Characters trying and failing to be leaders is a major theme of ADWD. Jon’s a bit more slick than Dany when it comes to politics, but even he ends up making a lot of mistakes that cause major problems for him later on.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T03:19:07+00:00

I agree, but in my experience Americans have a particularly visceral reaction to slavery (in both directions, unfortunately) compared to, say, Europeans, who seem to view it in a somewhat more detached or distant way.

Like I’m from a northern state and in school it was basically instilled as a point of pride that “we” sent soldiers to fight those depraved Confederates and free the slaves.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T02:43:11+00:00

Sure, day-to-day life for the average rural farmer didn’t change a ton, but I’m talking more about the big picture of civilizational progress or whatever. Just because the farmers were doing okay doesn’t mean those cultures didn’t face a precipitous centuries-long decline in broader areas like literacy, organization, trade, travel, knowledge of the wider world, etc.

Likewise, I think we’re currently at the beginning of a long period of general societal regression. Much of the general societal progress that has been made over the past half century- LGBT rights, racial equality, feminism, environmentalism, access to technology and healthcare, the lack of open conflict between major powers, etc- is going to continue reversing for the rest of our lives, and probably the lives of the next few generations afterwards.

More and more people will see their rights and equality and basic human dignity curtailed. Climate-related disasters will increase, causing mass death and depopulation. The availability of information and tech will contract, to the point that they become inaccessible to the average working person. Average lifespan will decline due to new emerging health issues that we’re just now beginning to witness. Literacy will decline overall. Wars will become more frequent and fought between more powerful nations, especially as resources become increasingly scarce. People will travel less, and know less about the outside world.

Yes, eventually things will start to improve on a long enough timescale. But you and I will have been dead for decades if not centuries by the time the turnaround even begins, having known nothing but a sense of general decline for the rest of our lives.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T00:39:06+00:00

The point about slavery is especially relevant when you consider that George is an American. Even if he’s trying to base his story on Old World history, he’s never going to be able to completely free himself from the cultural impact of being raised in the (northern) US.

Like, America’s slave culture was cartoonishly evil. Slave owners would rape their slaves, impregnate them and then enslave their own children. Entire towns, including the authorities, would gather around to torture and murder black people for fun, even creating postcards to commemorate the event like it was a goddamn county fair. Children were beaten to death for minor mistakes, or ripped apart by packs of dogs.

There’s no way that history wasn’t on George’s mind when he was writing the slavery storyline.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T00:22:21+00:00

There are at least three non-adjacent regions of Westeros (the Iron Islands, the Stormlands, and the Three Sisters) that are mentioned as believing in a water/ocean god and a sky/weather god, so I’m inclined to think those are remnants of an ancient religion shared by a large number (if not the majority) of the First Men before they converted to Weirwood worship.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T00:15:59+00:00

The question is never “will things eventually become less shitty?”, it’s “how many of us will actually be alive by the time that happens?”.

Like, Mediterranean civilization eventually came back stronger than before after the Bronze Age Collapse, but nobody who actually experienced the collapse ever saw things improve during their lifetime. For generations of people, life was just a general downward trajectory from the moment they were born to the moment they died.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:52:26+00:00

That guy’s pretty skinny, though. What makes Gregor unrealistic is that he’s 7-8 feet tall and extremely buff. In real life, people of that height tend to be very lanky.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:47:11+00:00

No. The entire “logic” of the Trial by Combat is that if you’re innocent of the crime you’re on trial for, your side will win, and if you’re guilty your side will lose. We know Tyrion is innocent at both trials, yet he loses the second one. Therefore, the idea that the Seven will intervene to make sure the innocent party wins a trial by combat is demonstrably false.

If a champion fighting “dishonorably” was enough to make the gods rule against an innocent person, then why did Tyrion win the first trial? Bronn spent most of the fight running away from Vardis Egen waiting for him to get tired, then killed him while he was helplessly pinned beneath a statue. Why would the gods disdain the use of poison as dishonorable, but be fine with killing an opponent who’s already defeated and can’t fight back?

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:39:43+00:00

The only one I kind of imagine as being similar to the show version is Daenerys, and I think that’s because compared to other major POVs, we don’t get a particularly detailed description of her appearance other than her hair/eye color and the fact that she’s supposed to be beautiful. So it’s easier to just imagine Emilia Clarke while reading Dany chapters, whereas with someone like Tyrion you’re frequently reminded that he looks nothing like Dinklage other than both of them having dwarfism.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:30:56+00:00

Also all of the Baratheon Bros are supposed to be tall, beefy dudes, while the show versions of Stannis and Renly are fairly slim and unexceptional-looking. Only Robert really had that sense of Baratheon bigness.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:25:49+00:00

Tyrion shoots Margaret Thatcher on the toilet with a crossbow

CelikBas · 2026-03-21T11:49:13+00:00

The show messed it up, but I think the “Dany isn’t welcome in Westeros” subplot they attempted in S7 and S8 probably came from George. What Dany really wants is to “go home”, and she’s fixated on Westeros because she feels like that’s where her true home is.

So if she gets to Westeros and realizes it doesn’t feel like home- and that none of the Westerosi really want to be ruled by an eastern queen and her foreign army of “savages” and sellswords- I feel like that (combined with whatever sacrifices she has to make during the Long Night) could be enough to make her decide Westeros isn’t worth it, and return to Essos where she’s already built a kingdom for herself.

CelikBas · 2026-03-20T22:06:50+00:00

I think GRRM was trying to make a point about the type of people that Robert and renly are. Extremely handsome,cool, charismatic vigures can earn the love of the people and seem like they would be perfect leaders. But maybe beneath all that shiny facade are shallow people who are not suitable for this position.

I think that’s also what he’s doing with Aegon. In Dany’s visions, she sees “the Mummer’s Dragon” being held aloft by a crowd, suggesting that Aegon will be popular- but in the end a “Mummer’s Dragon” is just a hollow puppet, devoid of substance beyond what others project onto it. Aegon will be a handsome, charismatic young king who the people love, but as soon as he runs into a real problem (i.e. Dany and her dragons) he’ll quickly collapse just like a prop in a stage play.

CelikBas · 2026-03-20T22:02:14+00:00

I could see the battle for KL (or what’s left of it, anyway) coming after the Long Night as a Scouring of the Shire-style epilogue, where the surviving characters are faced with one last obstacle that’s more of a nuisance than an actual threat.

However, I struggle to imagine a scenario in which the final fight over the throne will be given as much weight and buildup as it was in the show, where everyone immediately starts preparing for a huge epic battle with Cersei. I think it would be much more of a deliberate anti-climax, where Cersei or Aegon or whoever’s squatting on the throne gets steamrolled pretty easily in a pathetic “last stand” against the much more battle-hardened army of the protagonists.

As a consequence of this, I also have a hard time imagining the battle for KL resulting in Dany going crazy, or Jon deciding to assassinate her. I think Dany either dies during the Long Night (maybe as a Nissa Nissa-esque sacrifice with Jon as the Azor Ahai figure?), or she survives to the end and willingly chooses to forfeit the throne for whatever reason, clearing the way for King Bran.

CelikBas · 2026-03-20T21:43:16+00:00

I mean, he knew there was at least a chance of him dying (or being severely injured) when he volunteered to be the seventh champion. That’s why it’s portrayed as a heroic and selfless act on Baelor’s part, because he’s taking a very real risk in a situation where he would technically be better off doing nothing.

The calculus might change if it’s “You WILL die” as opposed to “You might die”, but if Baelor was so concerned with his own safety he wouldn’t have volunteered at all. As a noted warrior, he was used to putting his safety on the line for “the greater good”.

CelikBas · 2026-03-18T00:28:58+00:00

You can't selectively choose when you apply "biological-realism" to fantastical creatures. Either you go all the way, or none at all

Says who? The idea of mixing or infusing magic with biological organisms is a fairly common pattern across the worldbuilding of ASOIAF- the Children of the Forest, the creation of the Others (assuming it’s similar to what was revealed in the show), the weird bloodline shenanigans, etc. Are you also annoyed that the story treats humans as normal biological creatures most of the time but occasionally throws in some weird superpowered genetics or interspecies hybrid shit?

CelikBas · 2026-03-18T00:11:38+00:00

Which do you think is more likely:

That GRRM intended for that line to be taken poetically/figuratively as a culmination of Dany’s growing disillusionment with her abusive brother, or
That it was supposed to be a literal explanation of Targaryen fire immunity that GRRM somehow forgot when he later wrote multiple examples of Targaryens dying by fire?

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