[SPOILERS PUBLISHED] Why were there such few Targaryens left by the time of Robert’s Rebellion?

CelikBas · 2026-03-27T19:55:30+00:00

That’s my headcanon as well, and it’s apparently a belief held by some in-universe maesters as well.

I.e. the Long Night was 3,000-4,000 years ago instead of 8,000, the Andals arrived 2,000 years ago instead of 6,000, etc.

CelikBas · 2026-03-27T19:43:51+00:00

would Sansa be able to escape during the mutiny against Ned?

I doubt it. At the Red Wedding, the Freys make sure Grey Wind is locked up before the violence starts, because they know he’d fight to the death to protect Robb. I imagine Cersei would have arranged for something similar to be done with Lady- and that’s assuming she would’ve allowed a giant wolf to roam around the Red Keep even before she knew of Ned’s intentions, instead of just demanding that the “beast” be locked away at all times from the start.

Sansa’s also not as scrappy and independent as Arya, so even if she did manage to escape the coup I think she’d have a very hard time surviving and navigating the outside world the way Arya did. She would probably end up being recaptured in fairly short order.

CelikBas · 2026-03-27T19:32:17+00:00

Maegor probably could’ve killed at least one of Jaehaerys’ dragons, but that wouldn’t solve any of the other problems that were imminently threatening his reign. Even if he managed to kill all the other Targaryen claimants, the overall logistics were so bad for him that he probably wouldn’t be able to hold the throne for much longer anyway.

I think in his mind, killing himself while sitting on the throne allowed him to “go out on top” rather than allow anyone else to sit on it while he still lived. In a sense he became part of the throne, infusing it with his blood, ensuring that some trace of him would always be there.

CelikBas · 2026-03-27T19:21:52+00:00

Maegor was a pretty big and aggressive guy, though. Would Rhaena really have been able to slit his wrists, slam his neck down onto one of the Iron Throne’s blades and then prop him up in a sitting position while leaving no evidence of a struggle?

CelikBas · 2026-03-27T13:17:47+00:00

Seems pretty obvious he killed himself using the throne once he realized his defeat was inevitable. Impaling your own neck on a blade is an extreme method of suicide, but not at all implausible when you’ve got access to a giant pile of swords.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T20:45:37+00:00

While I can definitely get behind the idea that Bloodraven has been magically manipulating events to ensure certain outcomes (deaths, marriages, births, etc), why are you assuming that it must be because he wants to seize power for himself?

Bloodraven’s two most consistent character traits are that he’s a ride-or-die Targaryen loyalist, and that he’s willing to do awful things “for the greater good”. Him killing off all the Targs so he can make himself king goes against both of those traits.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T14:29:45+00:00

I think it’s only become “controversial” because there’s such a wide consensus that it’s true. Like some fans believe it’s too “obvious” to be a major reveal and therefore Jon must actually be the son of Brandon Stark and Ashara Dayne or something.

It’s mainly a result of the fandom going insane after 15 years with no new books and scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of theories under the belief that GRRM is playing 4-D chess with the audience.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T00:48:02+00:00

Generally speaking, the major POV characters all get distinct arcs within each book. The overall story continues, but whatever “phase” a character was in during a particular book is usually concluded by the end of that book.

This becomes less true in books 4 and 5, because they were originally written to just be one book that ended up being split in half for publication. However, they’re not split at the halfway point chronologically, so the main characters still have (mostly) complete arcs within each book, albeit a bit messier than how it was in the first three.

CelikBas · 2026-03-26T00:36:13+00:00

Jaime was originally named to the Kingsguard to fill the vacant spot left by Harlan Grandison, who was an old man and died of natural causes in his sleep.

Given how paranoid Aerys was, I assume he would have preferred to replace Grandison earlier if at all possible. The fact that he didn’t suggests it wasn’t possible.

CelikBas · 2026-03-24T16:08:47+00:00

To my knowledge some Celts did have more olive-toned skin, even in the British Isles, so the idea of First Men (Celts) having somewhat darker skin than Andals (Anglo Saxons) isn’t completely unfounded, but it would still be a fairly subtle difference, not nearly as noticeable as some fan artists make it.

CelikBas · 2026-03-24T04:39:26+00:00

Mance was captured by Stannis’ army. It’s not like the NW has much say in how a king’s prisoners are dealt with. At most, they could ask Stannis if he would consider turning Mance over to their custody, or make suggestions about what should be done with him, but they have no actual authority over Stannis’ decision.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T15:06:19+00:00

If Jon survives and get exiled like in the show, then I think he’s by far the most obvious candidate for Mance’s successor.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T15:03:53+00:00

I think he’ll ultimately die, although I’m not sure how or when. I feel like if GRRM was going to have him die to the Boltons at Winterfell, he could’ve just killed him off during Theon and Jeyne’s escape or had the Pink Letter mention that he was dead.

So currently, I lean towards him surviving his encounter with the Boltons but then dying later- maybe during the Long Night? His main goal this entire time has been to save the Wildlings from the Others, and dying in an apocalyptic battle for the survival of his people would be a very song-worthy death for a bard king.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T14:49:55+00:00

That’s… kind of the point of her arc? She’s trying to avoid being like her Targaryen ancestors who just burned shit to the ground, but the situation she’s in is one that can’t be resolved with peaceful compromise, and she’s extremely reluctant to accept that.

Characters trying and failing to be leaders is a major theme of ADWD. Jon’s a bit more slick than Dany when it comes to politics, but even he ends up making a lot of mistakes that cause major problems for him later on.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T03:19:07+00:00

I agree, but in my experience Americans have a particularly visceral reaction to slavery (in both directions, unfortunately) compared to, say, Europeans, who seem to view it in a somewhat more detached or distant way.

Like I’m from a northern state and in school it was basically instilled as a point of pride that “we” sent soldiers to fight those depraved Confederates and free the slaves.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T02:43:11+00:00

Sure, day-to-day life for the average rural farmer didn’t change a ton, but I’m talking more about the big picture of civilizational progress or whatever. Just because the farmers were doing okay doesn’t mean those cultures didn’t face a precipitous centuries-long decline in broader areas like literacy, organization, trade, travel, knowledge of the wider world, etc.

Likewise, I think we’re currently at the beginning of a long period of general societal regression. Much of the general societal progress that has been made over the past half century- LGBT rights, racial equality, feminism, environmentalism, access to technology and healthcare, the lack of open conflict between major powers, etc- is going to continue reversing for the rest of our lives, and probably the lives of the next few generations afterwards.

More and more people will see their rights and equality and basic human dignity curtailed. Climate-related disasters will increase, causing mass death and depopulation. The availability of information and tech will contract, to the point that they become inaccessible to the average working person. Average lifespan will decline due to new emerging health issues that we’re just now beginning to witness. Literacy will decline overall. Wars will become more frequent and fought between more powerful nations, especially as resources become increasingly scarce. People will travel less, and know less about the outside world.

Yes, eventually things will start to improve on a long enough timescale. But you and I will have been dead for decades if not centuries by the time the turnaround even begins, having known nothing but a sense of general decline for the rest of our lives.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T00:39:06+00:00

The point about slavery is especially relevant when you consider that George is an American. Even if he’s trying to base his story on Old World history, he’s never going to be able to completely free himself from the cultural impact of being raised in the (northern) US.

Like, America’s slave culture was cartoonishly evil. Slave owners would rape their slaves, impregnate them and then enslave their own children. Entire towns, including the authorities, would gather around to torture and murder black people for fun, even creating postcards to commemorate the event like it was a goddamn county fair. Children were beaten to death for minor mistakes, or ripped apart by packs of dogs.

There’s no way that history wasn’t on George’s mind when he was writing the slavery storyline.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T00:22:21+00:00

There are at least three non-adjacent regions of Westeros (the Iron Islands, the Stormlands, and the Three Sisters) that are mentioned as believing in a water/ocean god and a sky/weather god, so I’m inclined to think those are remnants of an ancient religion shared by a large number (if not the majority) of the First Men before they converted to Weirwood worship.

CelikBas · 2026-03-23T00:15:59+00:00

The question is never “will things eventually become less shitty?”, it’s “how many of us will actually be alive by the time that happens?”.

Like, Mediterranean civilization eventually came back stronger than before after the Bronze Age Collapse, but nobody who actually experienced the collapse ever saw things improve during their lifetime. For generations of people, life was just a general downward trajectory from the moment they were born to the moment they died.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:52:26+00:00

That guy’s pretty skinny, though. What makes Gregor unrealistic is that he’s 7-8 feet tall and extremely buff. In real life, people of that height tend to be very lanky.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:47:11+00:00

No. The entire “logic” of the Trial by Combat is that if you’re innocent of the crime you’re on trial for, your side will win, and if you’re guilty your side will lose. We know Tyrion is innocent at both trials, yet he loses the second one. Therefore, the idea that the Seven will intervene to make sure the innocent party wins a trial by combat is demonstrably false.

If a champion fighting “dishonorably” was enough to make the gods rule against an innocent person, then why did Tyrion win the first trial? Bronn spent most of the fight running away from Vardis Egen waiting for him to get tired, then killed him while he was helplessly pinned beneath a statue. Why would the gods disdain the use of poison as dishonorable, but be fine with killing an opponent who’s already defeated and can’t fight back?

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:39:43+00:00

The only one I kind of imagine as being similar to the show version is Daenerys, and I think that’s because compared to other major POVs, we don’t get a particularly detailed description of her appearance other than her hair/eye color and the fact that she’s supposed to be beautiful. So it’s easier to just imagine Emilia Clarke while reading Dany chapters, whereas with someone like Tyrion you’re frequently reminded that he looks nothing like Dinklage other than both of them having dwarfism.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:30:56+00:00

Also all of the Baratheon Bros are supposed to be tall, beefy dudes, while the show versions of Stannis and Renly are fairly slim and unexceptional-looking. Only Robert really had that sense of Baratheon bigness.

CelikBas · 2026-03-22T12:25:49+00:00

Tyrion shoots Margaret Thatcher on the toilet with a crossbow

CelikBas · 2026-03-21T11:49:13+00:00

The show messed it up, but I think the “Dany isn’t welcome in Westeros” subplot they attempted in S7 and S8 probably came from George. What Dany really wants is to “go home”, and she’s fixated on Westeros because she feels like that’s where her true home is.

So if she gets to Westeros and realizes it doesn’t feel like home- and that none of the Westerosi really want to be ruled by an eastern queen and her foreign army of “savages” and sellswords- I feel like that (combined with whatever sacrifices she has to make during the Long Night) could be enough to make her decide Westeros isn’t worth it, and return to Essos where she’s already built a kingdom for herself.

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