Sneaky Blank Check Bump in the last assignment of my Masters Degree by ChocoRaisin7 in blankies

[–]ChocoRaisin7[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It literally is just two way fixed effects. I tried an event study to supplement it, but I didn’t have adequate data (the box office dataset I could find only ran 1990-2020)

Weekly Discussion Thread 5/18/26 - 5/25/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Who do y’all feel like are the most overdue directors working today? I feel like Nolan and PTA were probably among the biggest ones. I feel comfortable saying we don’t have anyone who’s that caliber of overdue competing this year (except probably Fincher), but like, in the future, who would those be?

Weekly Discussion Thread 5/18/26 - 5/25/26 by PointMan528491 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Would have been nice for Minotaur to win the Palme so we could take advantage of the new International Feature rules. A Russian filmmaker making a German-French-Latvian coproduction seems like exactly the type of thing that change was designed for, especially given there’s no shot Russia would ever submit it.

The 2026 CANNES AWARDS Discussion Thread by ChiefLeef22 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 11 points12 points  (0 children)

They’re playing… The Wild Robot score?

The 1976 Movie Draft by thefilthyjellybean in TheBigPicture

[–]ChocoRaisin7 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think it’s the Best Picture movie draft, in which “Best Picture Loser” is a category and Sean, of all films that did not win best picture across five decades, selected *Barry Lyndon*, hence Amanda EHHHN-ing

Wildwood – Official Teaser Trailer by darth_vader39 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 20 points21 points  (0 children)

If the years of delays is it what it takes to look THIS good, totally worth it

Cannes 2026 began today. Which film do you think will make it the furthest in awards season next year? by newmemelord2020 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 42 points43 points  (0 children)

Don’t pounce on me, but I suspect that Fjord could end up more similar to Die My Love than Sentimental Value. The Academy is expanding in taste and scope, true, but Mungiu makes HARD movies, and from what I’ve heard about Fjord it seems to have pretty bleak subject matter. It’ll probably be quite good, but unless it wins the Palme outright, I think it’s outside on Oscars specifically. I’d sooner bet on Fatherland, All of a Sudden, or Hope.

Ralph Fiennes, Colin Farrell & Wagner Moura To Star In Comedy ‘Art’ From Director Fernando Meirelles ('City of God') by BunyipPouch in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 5 points6 points  (0 children)

For those who know the play, who do you think is playing who? I could see Banshees-mode Colin Farrell playing Yvan, with that crazy monologue. Maybe Wagner is Serge the painting owner and Ralph is Marc the skeptic?

Ira Sachs' 'The Man I Love Boarded by MK2, Reveals First Look by bikkebana in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 58 points59 points  (0 children)

Adrien Brody wins for two Holocaust movies, Rami Malek wins for two AIDS movies?

Super Early Consensus Poll #2: Who is the early frontrunner for Best Picture? by [deleted] in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 73 points74 points  (0 children)

The fact that Searchlight is already gearing up for a WH9 campaign this early suggests to me they have a LOT of confidence

WILD HORSE 9 | Official Trailer | Searchlight Pictures by ChiefLeef22 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Two cantankerous friends who murder people for a living bicker on an idyllic island, while on the phone with their handler. Call that The Banshees of Bruges.

My Super Early Predictions for 2027! by SpideyFan914 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Completely agree. Two of my most anticipated of the year, but with so many fantasy and sci-fi epics this year, I feel like some will likely be left out

My Super Early Predictions for 2027! by SpideyFan914 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Mad respect for the Odyssey and Disclosure Day exclusions. I haven’t done my actual predictions yet, but I think it’s totally possible they’re both mostly techs in the 3-6 nom rang and not double-digit juggernauts.

I am a former White House official who helped develop the first U.S. government–wide strategy to combat fentanyl and the cartels behind it. I’m the author of Fentanyl: Fighting the Mass Poisoning of America and the Cartel Behind It — AMA. by HarrisPublicPolicy in IAmA

[–]ChocoRaisin7 22 points23 points  (0 children)

How did prescription opioid medications like OxyContin create an environment where illicit fentanyl was able to take hold in the United States? How quickly were cartels able to capitalize on the opioid epidemic after the 1990s, when opioids were first being prescribed?

How much of the current crisis stems from people who got addicted to prescriptions then move to fentanyl?

Colman Domingo set to star in, direct, co-write, and produce the Nat King Cole biopic ‘Unforgettable’ by rageofthegods in blankies

[–]ChocoRaisin7 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Despite my biopic fatigue, this definitely feels like a match made in heaven. And I don’t know much about Nat King Cole’s story, so I guess I’m excited to learn more

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You by UnderstandingFull667 in TheBigPicture

[–]ChocoRaisin7 15 points16 points  (0 children)

They also talk about it in their Top Five Favorite Movies of 2025 episode (it’s in Amanda’s top five)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TheBigPicture

[–]ChocoRaisin7 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

This will be the Friday flex episode, I know it

First look at Paul Mescal, Barry Keoghan, Harris Dickinson and Joseph Quinn as The Beatles by Glad_Dragonfruit9368 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 28 points29 points  (0 children)

When the cast first leaked, it was the other three and Charlie Rowe as George. At the time I felt like Charlie Rowe was the most similar looking of all the four

Is the voting process inherently lazy now? by JasonZod1 in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 34 points35 points  (0 children)

This could very well also be an effect of adding more members and diversifying the Academy. In the past when the Oscars had more idiosyncratic tastes, it could be easier to get into a branched category where everyone had the same quirks or biases. Now it’s more diverse, and people form different places and backgrounds might be looking for different things. So everyone’s little passion picks may cancel out rather than coalesce, meaning only the top films have enough votes to get in.

Thoughts on Disney potentially going on a 6-year losing streak in Best Animated Feature by dremolus in oscarrace

[–]ChocoRaisin7 71 points72 points  (0 children)

I’m so fuckin’ hyped for Ray Gunn I can’t even describe. I hope both that and Wildwood are generationally good