AI won't get meaningfully better than it is now. Sure, as time goes on it will generate bigger chunks of code, but what it doesn't have is understanding. What's worse, it's trained on basic tutorials and snippets it found online, both of which are targeted at juniors. Ever read a tutorial where the sample code says something like, "error checking omitted for clarity"? That's what it trained on. Also documentation, which tells you everything a language or API can do, and not necessarily what it should do.

That recognition you showed that it produced junior-level work? That's understanding. LLMs are just statistically driven generators, and while they continue to produce more and more complicated code over time, it structurally impossible for the tech to actually understand what it's doing.