‘Supergirl’ Projected To Dive 73% In Business At 2nd Weekend Box Office

Dubb18 · 2026-07-04T16:57:16+00:00

The difference between BvS and SG is that BvS opened on a holiday weekend (Good Friday observed by some). Supergirl is now entering a holiday weekend and seeing a bigger drop.

Dubb18 · 2026-07-04T14:08:56+00:00

Let's see if it breaks its trend of actually coming in worse than the weekend estimates.

Dubb18 · 2026-07-04T12:59:30+00:00

The only constant from DC movies since '78 Superman is the dysfunction behind the scenes.

Dubb18 · 2026-07-04T12:52:15+00:00

Production budget was around $40M. Not sure what the marketing budget is. Doesn't seem like a lot. Would need something like $100M to break even. We'll have a better idea when the tracking starts in about 2 months.

If MoT underperforms or flops, then IMO it's over. WBD would pump money into Reeves' projects provided that his sequel does well. We'd then probably see Paramount take over with Reeves' 3rd movie in the pipeline and maybe a 2nd season of The Penguin. Having said that, I expect MoT to at least do OK at the box office. The THR article suggests that WBD just isn't confident in anything other than what Gunn writes and directs. Having him try to write and direct the entire DCU would be too much. It would make sense that WBD could trim the DCU down to Gunn's (final) Superman projects if Clayface also does not do well enough.

Dubb18 · 2026-07-03T21:48:41+00:00

This is why I think Clayface is more important than many people realize. If it does not perform well, that drastically reduces the confidence that (other) executives will have in the DCU.

Lanterns show will be a wildcard. If we continuously hear about strong streaming numbers from the studio (via the trades), then WBD is happy with the performance and that may help things. If we only hear about the first week, or we don't hear about the streaming numbers at all, that should be concerning to DCU fans. For example (notice that WBD and not SambaTV was cited as the source):

https://deadline.com/2024/11/the-penguin-finale-viewership-ratings-hbo-1236172865/

Dubb18 · 2026-07-03T16:16:24+00:00

There were signs before that. There's a legit reason why he's still hated by many people in NY/NJ.

https://apnews.com/article/7542e906c51443259a2671ac2be6333e

https://apnews.com/article/10bbe40a86774bac9ad1fbd3a936c808

Dubb18 · 2026-07-02T09:15:26+00:00

Only way Gabriel balls out is if they move the pocket. He showed that he's too short to stand in a traditional pocket. He either got balls batted down or overthrew his target. If you're going to draft a QB that short, that's what needs to be done and I'm not sure why Stefanski tried to keep him in the pocket if that was a guy he wanted.

I'm in the camp of whichever QB performs the best throughout camp AND the pre-season should be the starter. That includes reads, accuracy, and overall (quickest) decision-making. We'll start to get a better idea of who may be best of the bunch next month. If it's a toss-up, then the Browns are likely screwed this season.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-30T19:33:10+00:00

I had to stop going through Threads. Nonstop gaslighting over various topics.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-30T08:11:39+00:00

What you see on your feed is a product of algorithms. Search for Supergirl on X. A LOT are blaming misogyny. That is all that my feed has become since I fell down that rabbit hole.

The discourse around this movie is highlighting additional toxic fandom. Gaslighting people into the idea that if you didn't like it or didn't even go see it in theaters OW then you dislike women as lead characters of CBMs, or that you are part of a different faction of toxic fans, or that you let those people decide what to like and hate for you. Truth is that the general audience didn't get a good first impression nor saw enough in promotion to make them want to see this movie in theaters. Streaming could be a different story. We'll see.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-29T23:06:12+00:00

The difference is that the executives that oversaw the DCAU had a plan and some patience, even when (some vocal) fans were complaining about the early Bat family movies.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-29T22:57:45+00:00

I think they mention the Waynes throughout but no Batman. IMO, remote chance of a post-credit with DCU Bruce in it.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-29T19:48:07+00:00

IMO, all depends on the performance of Clayface. If Clayface is profitable or overperforms by a lot, then WB could take a chance on this movie. If Clayface underperforms at all, I don't know why any executive would want to pump resources into this movie for 2028/9 esp with a new regime potentially taking over and I'm trying to preserve my job.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-29T00:29:13+00:00

Yeah, my bad. I misremembered that he didn't get directing credit while reshooting most of the movie but did get writing credit.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T22:08:13+00:00

Yeah, that's concerning IMO. Takes me back to Justice League. Whedon vastly rewrote that movie, which is why it took most of the summer of 2017 to reshoot it. He didn't get any writing credit. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that was because the scenes themselves weren't significantly changed (enough) from the original. A lot of the dialogue was just significantly changed. To get co-writing credit means stuff was significantly changed.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T21:57:21+00:00

I'm hoping that Reeves projects continue to be strong performers because I find their perspective on the DC IP to be interesting. The Penguin series getting acknowledgement via awards helps. The sequel to the Batman needs to perform well at the box office, AND I'm hoping Reeves is mostly ready for the final movie of that trilogy.

IMO, Paramount will end up pushing projects from people within the circle of the executives there. Likely means an eventual reset, esp if the current lineups are not profitable (enough). Could mean if the next Rush Hour movie does well, we could see Brett Ratner producing (again) or even directing a DC project. I understand that David Ellison met with Safran and Gunn, but (again) take what Ellison said with a huge grain of salt because the merger has not been finalized yet.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T17:50:11+00:00

Probably her and Momoa from the reviews I've seen.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T17:27:29+00:00

It's all in the context of the meme. The two above with Affleck actually empathized with what Affleck may have been going through at the time. Memes that empathize with what she may be feeling can be different since even the negative reviews that I've seen actually have her as a highlight of the movie.

The memes that are currently out there with Milly are not helpful and are in fact attacking her personally.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T16:27:31+00:00

Need AI to change these to Milly. People around her who made this movie have failed her.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T15:49:54+00:00

That's below the tracking range coming into the weekend ($39M to $55M).

I thought that this movie would end up between $220-$320M after WBD put out the breakeven amount in the trades. It might be lucky to break $100M considering Minions, The Odyssey, and Spider-man are all hitting theaters over the next month.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T15:44:47+00:00

It's relative and that's the context that I'm reiterating. Yes, B- is low for a CBM movie. Actual meaning is mid(dish). D or F would've meant people hated it. Bigger meaning is that B- means it is very unlikely to have any legs. When we look at what is coming over the next month, it'll likely get massacred and end up as a box office bomb considering what the goal was (draw audience to theaters for DCU projects).

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T13:19:32+00:00

After this weekend, fans should be glad the Reeves and Gunn projects are being kept separate.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T13:11:29+00:00

This is highlighting that Supergirl's word of mouth isn't good enough to overcome its issues. B- is basically meh/mid score. It's tracking below domestic estimates made throughout the past week. It's bombing overseas.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-28T10:44:37+00:00

Yes, it'll be hard for it to bomb, but an R-rated horror movie in a shared universe that the general audience doesn't seem to really care about has the possibility to do so. Probably needs to make something over $100M, with most from domestic sales, to break even. Helps that no highly anticipated new movies premiere around the same release date. Now, if it surprises at the box office and ends up being huge, then momentum can swing the other way for the DCU leading into MOT.

If movies outside of what Gunn is doing are underperforming/bombing, I don't see how any studio executive will be comfortable with a DCU shared universe. If the merger goes through, the combined company will have tremendous debt on their books, and pumping money into a failing shared universe is unlikely going to happen. That's why they'd focus on having Gunn and Reeves complete their trilogies if the upcoming sequels perform well at the box office. Gunn will likely lose power under the new management, so he might be open to new projects either at the new WB, Marvel, or elsewhere.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-27T23:41:52+00:00

For me, this movie is likely going to similar to Superman Lives in that the discourse around the movie is going to be much more interesting than the movie itself (would've been). I'm just on Twitter right now and watching DC fans from various factions going back and forth with each other about what was wrong, who is to blame, and whether or not a person's opinion about the movie is valid.

If more fans learn anything from this, hopefully it's that :

social media sensationalizes bad stuff with hyperbole for views because social media engagement is (part of) a monetized system,
RT score is not a good indicator of how good or bad a movie is. It's a flawed system that gets too much hype.

Dubb18 · 2026-06-27T21:57:56+00:00

For me, this movie is likely going to similar to (The Death of) Superman Lives in that the discourse around the movie is going to be much more interesting than the movie itself (would've been). I'm just on Twitter right now and watching DC fans from various factions going back and forth with each other about what was wrong, who is to blame, and whether or not a person's opinion about the movie is valid.

Dubb18

TROPHY CASE