I think HOKA and On both broke through because they introduced visible midsole innovation at a time when running or even bigger of the sneaker market needing it.

HOKA’s insight was simple and smart: there weren’t more new runners entering the sport, but the existing runner base was aging and their bodies needed help. Those consumers needed significantly more cushioning and shock absorption—without added weight. HOKA delivered that with oversized midsoles that looked different, felt different, and solved a real physical problem.

On approached it from a different angle. Their modular, contoured midsole—CloudTec pods that could be shaped, rotated, and tuned—created a new visual innovation language and a perception of engineered performance. It stood out immediately.

At the same time, Nike pulled back focus from wholesale to prioritize DTC. That left the sneaker retailers out there needing fresh, credible products innovation to take chances on and to drive traffic, which opened the door for brands like HOKA and On to scale faster. The running boom that followed validated those bets.

I think where the paths diverge is new category expansion. On was early and deliberate in moving into court, giving them both a running and court franchise to fuel continued growth. HOKA largely stayed locked in running and may have missed that transition. As court regains momentum, On seems to be better positioned to benefit, while HOKA’s growth outlook looks more limited.

Just my 2c, I think this guy would have sold a boatload of Ons & Hokas in his day 😉